本文選題：入庫(kù)洪水 + 極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源是生命的源泉,一直是人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要保障。當(dāng)今,由于降水在時(shí)間空間上的不均勻分布,年際之間的劇烈變化,使得洪澇、旱災(zāi)時(shí)常發(fā)生有限的水資源未能得到最大化的利用。梯級(jí)水庫(kù)作為修建在河流上的主要工程措施,擔(dān)負(fù)著整個(gè)流域的澇旱災(zāi)害防治和水資源再分配的重要職責(zé),科學(xué)合理地進(jìn)行梯級(jí)水庫(kù)防洪調(diào)度,及時(shí)攔蓄洪水,可以有效緩解水資源短缺與災(zāi)害頻發(fā)之間的矛盾,水庫(kù)的極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題則是梯級(jí)水庫(kù)防洪調(diào)度中的關(guān)鍵和首要任務(wù)。 針對(duì)梯級(jí)水庫(kù)的極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題,本文基于極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概念,主要考慮從水文不確定性角度分析下游水庫(kù)的入庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)洪水。其洪水組成分為兩部分,即上游干流來水和區(qū)間支流來水。首先,不同的洪水典型組成對(duì)梯級(jí)水庫(kù)的聯(lián)合防洪調(diào)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有著重要影響,按洪峰在洪水過程中出現(xiàn)的位置劃分4種典型洪水,并從中各篩選出4條典型洪水過程線,組合成16種情景,分析不同形狀典型入庫(kù)梯級(jí)洪水對(duì)水庫(kù)極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率的影響,并采用同倍比放大法推出梯級(jí)水庫(kù)入庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)洪水,以下游水庫(kù)設(shè)計(jì)洪水位作為極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制指標(biāo),通過調(diào)洪演算得到防洪極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。其次,融合統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)極值理論與概率分布的尾部效應(yīng),對(duì)水文中常用的概率分布類型進(jìn)行分類,根據(jù)實(shí)測(cè)資料利用概率論數(shù)學(xué)模型及數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法進(jìn)行頻率線型影響分析。黃河上游龍羊峽和劉家峽梯級(jí)水庫(kù)中劉家峽水庫(kù)的防洪極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率實(shí)例計(jì)算結(jié)果表明,典型洪水組成方面,影響劉家峽水庫(kù)極限風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要的典型來水是干流為洪峰而支流洪峰靠前的洪水組合；線型選擇方面,由配線結(jié)果可知采用廣義極值(GEV)分布的所得出的設(shè)計(jì)洪量要比傳統(tǒng)P-Ⅲ型曲線的設(shè)計(jì)洪量要大,使設(shè)計(jì)防洪工程結(jié)果更偏于安全。
[Abstract]:Water resources is the source of life, has been an important guarantee of human social and economic development. Nowadays, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space and the severe changes between years, flood and drought often occur and limited water resources can not be maximized. As the main engineering measures built on rivers, cascade reservoirs are responsible for the prevention and control of waterlogging and drought disasters and the redistribution of water resources in the whole river basin. It can effectively alleviate the contradiction between the shortage of water resources and frequent disasters, and the limit risk of reservoirs is the key and the most important task in the flood control operation of cascade reservoirs. Aiming at the limit risk problem of cascade reservoirs, this paper, based on the concept of limit risk, mainly considers the design flood of downstream reservoirs from the point of view of hydrological uncertainty. The flood consists of two parts: the upstream main stream and the branch stream. First of all, different typical flood components have an important impact on the risk of combined flood control operation of cascade reservoirs. According to the location of Hong Feng in the flood process, four typical floods are divided, and four typical flood process lines are screened out. Combined into 16 scenarios, this paper analyzes the influence of typical cascade flood with different shapes on the limit risk rate of reservoir, and deduces the design flood of cascade reservoir by using the method of magnifying the same ratio. The design flood level of the following reservoir is regarded as the limit risk control index. The limit risk rate of flood control is obtained by flood control calculation. Secondly, combining the extreme value theory of statistics with the tail effect of probability distribution, the types of probability distribution commonly used in hydrology are classified. According to the measured data, frequency linear influence analysis is carried out by using probability mathematical model and mathematical statistical method. The calculation results of flood control limit risk rate of Liujiaxia Reservoir in Longyangxia and Liujiaxia Cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yellow River show that the typical flood composition, The main typical incoming water that affects the limit risk of Liujiaxia Reservoir is the flood combination in which the main stream is Hong Feng and the tributary Hong Feng is forward. From the distribution line results, the design flood volume obtained by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is larger than that of the traditional P- 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：2075314