本文選題：再生水利用 + 動(dòng)態(tài)最優(yōu)化模擬　； 參考：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展，水資源短缺和水污染漸漸成為制約未來發(fā)展的重要問題，天津市則是水環(huán)境問題嚴(yán)重的典型地區(qū)。為了緩解天津市水環(huán)境約束、保障經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和人口增加的水資源需求，再生水的循環(huán)利用是最有效的解決途徑。然而目前天津市再生水利用工程尚處起步階段，還有很大的發(fā)展?jié)摿�。這使得再生水合理利用方案及其環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合影響評(píng)價(jià)的研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本研究正是基于以上現(xiàn)實(shí)問題，從區(qū)域水環(huán)境管理的角度，，對(duì)天津市再生水的利用潛力進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，以找出最優(yōu)的再生水利用方案；并評(píng)價(jià)最優(yōu)方案下再生水利用對(duì)于環(huán)境保護(hù)和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的貢獻(xiàn)。 研究方法采用動(dòng)態(tài)建模和模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)的方式，構(gòu)建綜合社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境綜合模型，并采用LINGO編程軟件來實(shí)現(xiàn)模擬。研究所構(gòu)建的綜合水資源-環(huán)境-經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型，包括三大子模型：水循環(huán)模型，污染物質(zhì)流動(dòng)模型和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)模型。該模型是“自上而下”的宏觀環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)模型（以投入產(chǎn)出模型為基礎(chǔ)）與“自下而上”技術(shù)評(píng)價(jià)模型的有機(jī)結(jié)合，并首次將水資源循環(huán)系統(tǒng)引入模型以內(nèi)生反映再生水的利用潛力。綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型的目標(biāo)是在水環(huán)境改善的基礎(chǔ)上，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)最大化發(fā)展；以2010-2020年為實(shí)驗(yàn)期（利于比較模擬結(jié)果與現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證模型可信度），對(duì)天津市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、水環(huán)境進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)和分析。 通過模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果以及分析表明，在引入5種污水處理和再生水生產(chǎn)技術(shù)之后，結(jié)合綜合政策的導(dǎo)入，2020年天津市再生水的重復(fù)利用率可達(dá)到56%，污水處理率亦可達(dá)到98%。再生水的利用將有效減緩天津市水資源短缺的問題，替代22%的總用水量，并且有效減少15%水污染物質(zhì)排放量（較2009年）。此外，還能保障經(jīng)濟(jì)以年均6.45%的增速發(fā)展，保證社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。另外，模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)也可以提供了天津市各區(qū)域的具體發(fā)展計(jì)劃，包括再生水利用的財(cái)政需求、廠址選擇、以及產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展計(jì)劃。研究將為天津市合理利用再生水提供科學(xué)的政策方案和可行的措施，也將為水資源管理等提供新的研究思路。 研究的創(chuàng)新在于研究方法上改進(jìn)了水資源-水環(huán)境-社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)模型，增了水循環(huán)內(nèi)生機(jī)制和綜合系統(tǒng)的研究模式。動(dòng)態(tài)模型模擬也為水資源環(huán)境管理提供了新的研究視角，研究將為天津市合理利用再生水提供科學(xué)的政策建議和具體的可行措施，同時(shí)也將為水管理等研究提供新的研究思路和方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in China, water shortage and water pollution gradually become an important problem restricting the future development. Tianjin is a typical region with serious water environment problems. In order to ease the restriction of water environment in Tianjin and ensure the demand of water resources for economic growth and population increase, recycling of reclaimed water is the most effective way to solve this problem. However, Tianjin Recycling Water Utilization Project is still in its infancy and has great development potential. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the rational utilization of reclaimed water and its comprehensive environmental and economic impact assessment. This study is based on the above practical problems, from the point of view of regional water environment management, to predict the utilization potential of reclaimed water in Tianjin, in order to find out the best recycling water utilization plan; The contribution of reclaimed water utilization to environmental protection and social and economic development was evaluated. In this paper, dynamic modeling and simulation experiments are used to construct a comprehensive model of social economy and environment, and the lingo programming software is used to realize the simulation. The comprehensive evaluation model of integrated water resources, environment and economy, which includes three sub-models: water cycle model, pollutant flow model and socio-economic model, is constructed. This model is an organic combination of "top-down" macro-environmental economic evaluation model (based on input-output model) and "bottom-up" technology evaluation model. The recycling system of water resources is introduced into the model for the first time to reflect the potential of reclaimed water utilization. The objective of the comprehensive evaluation model is to maximize the economic development on the basis of the improvement of the water environment, and to take 2010-2020 as the experimental period (which is conducive to comparing the simulation results and the credibility of the real data validation model) to the economic development of Tianjin. The water environment is predicted and analyzed. The results of simulation experiments and analysis show that after introducing five kinds of wastewater treatment and reclaimed water production technology, combined with the introduction of comprehensive policy, the reuse efficiency of reclaimed water in Tianjin can reach 566.The sewage treatment rate can also reach 98g in 2020. The utilization of reclaimed water will effectively alleviate the shortage of water resources in Tianjin, replace 22% of the total water consumption, and effectively reduce the discharge of water pollution by 15% (compared with 2009). In addition, the economy can be guaranteed to grow at an average annual rate of 6.45% and to ensure sustainable social and economic development. In addition, the simulation experiment can also provide specific development plans for each region of Tianjin, including the financial demand for the utilization of recycled water, site selection, and industrial development plan. The research will provide a scientific policy scheme and feasible measures for the rational utilization of reclaimed water in Tianjin, and will also provide a new research idea for the management of water resources. The innovation of the research lies in improving the model of water resources, water environment and social economy system, increasing the endogenous mechanism of water cycle and the research mode of integrated system. Dynamic model simulation also provides a new research perspective for water resources environmental management. The research will provide scientific policy suggestions and concrete feasible measures for rational utilization of reclaimed water in Tianjin. At the same time, it will provide new research ideas and methods for water management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.9;F127

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本文編號(hào)：2069095