本文選題：用水量 + 驅(qū)動(dòng)因子　； 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源是人類社會(huì)不可替代的自然和環(huán)境資源，是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)條件。經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展和人口的增長，以及水污染問題的日益加重，使水資源短缺成為制約我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康快速發(fā)展的重要瓶頸�？茖W(xué)、準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測用水量，對于國家和地區(qū)中長期水資源開發(fā)利用總體規(guī)劃和供水規(guī)劃等具有重要意義�，F(xiàn)階段國內(nèi)外通過分析影響用水量的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子從而進(jìn)行用水量預(yù)測的研究相對較少，研究成果相對來說也不太完善。論文根據(jù)用水系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)和特點(diǎn)，研究了定量辨識(shí)主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子及其影響程度的方法，提取影響區(qū)域用水量大小的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子，在此基礎(chǔ)上利用多元線性回歸方法對區(qū)域用水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測分析。選用山東省為研究對象，對影響山東省生產(chǎn)用水、生活用水和生態(tài)用水的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行分析識(shí)別并據(jù)此對三類用水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，得到如下主要結(jié)果： （1）分析了山東省水資源開發(fā)利用現(xiàn)狀及其存在的問題。對研究區(qū)的自然地理和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本情況進(jìn)行分析，結(jié)果表明：山東省自然地理?xiàng)l件優(yōu)越且總體經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力和社會(huì)發(fā)展水平均處于全國領(lǐng)先水平。1995~2010年以來，山東省用水量總體呈下降趨勢，但是由于山東省本身屬于嚴(yán)重缺水地區(qū)，加之水資源未能得到合理有效的開發(fā)利用，水污染嚴(yán)重以及海水入侵等導(dǎo)致山東省水資源緊缺。該結(jié)果可為科學(xué)制定水資源開發(fā)和管理措施提供依據(jù)。 （2）研究了三類用水量驅(qū)動(dòng)因子，并提取了主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子。按用戶特性將用水分為生產(chǎn)用水、生活用水和生態(tài)環(huán)境用水三大類，，對每一類用水，分別結(jié)合山東省的自然、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展特點(diǎn)分析了其驅(qū)動(dòng)因子構(gòu)成，并綜合利用主成分分析法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法和集對分析法，最終選定灌溉用水定額、萬元產(chǎn)值用水量、旅游總收入為第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量首要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子，選定城市居民消費(fèi)水平和園林綠地面積為生活和生態(tài)用水首要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子。 （3）預(yù)測并討論了山東省用水量及其驅(qū)動(dòng)因子變化情況。利用灰色GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測至2020年所選取驅(qū)動(dòng)因子的取值，利用多元線性回歸模型分別預(yù)測了2020年第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)用水、城鎮(zhèn)生活用水、農(nóng)村生活用水和生態(tài)用水量。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明：第一產(chǎn)業(yè)用水總體呈下降趨勢，單位灌溉面積和農(nóng)作物播種面積的下降是引起到第一產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量減少的主要因素；第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量在萬元產(chǎn)值用水量減少的影響下將減少6.11億m3；第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量驅(qū)動(dòng)因子在未來將會(huì)繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步上升，由此導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)用水中第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用水量增加至6.77億m3；城鎮(zhèn)生活用水在城市居民消費(fèi)水平驅(qū)動(dòng)因子的推動(dòng)下將繼續(xù)升高，而在農(nóng)村，外出務(wù)工和高速城鎮(zhèn)化引起生活用水量不增反減；城市化還將導(dǎo)致園林綠地面積的增加，繼而引起生態(tài)用水量增加。
[Abstract]:Water resources are the irreplaceable natural and environmental resources of human society and the basic conditions of sustainable development. With the rapid development of economy and society, the increase of population and the aggravation of water pollution, the shortage of water resources has become an important bottleneck restricting the sustained and healthy rapid development of our economy. Scientific and accurate prediction of water consumption is of great significance to the overall planning of water resources development and utilization and water supply planning in countries and regions. At present, the research on water consumption prediction by analyzing the driving factors affecting water consumption is relatively few, and the research results are not perfect. According to the internal structure and characteristics of the water system, the paper studies the method of quantitatively identifying the main driving factors and their influence degree, and extracts the main driving factors that affect the water consumption of the region. On this basis, the multivariate linear regression method is used to predict the regional water consumption. In this paper, Shandong Province is selected as the research object to analyze and identify the driving factors that affect the production water, domestic water and ecological water use in Shandong Province, and to forecast the three kinds of water consumption. The main results are as follows: (1) the present situation and existing problems of water resources exploitation and utilization in Shandong Province are analyzed. The basic situation of natural geography and social economy in the study area is analyzed. The results show that the natural geography conditions of Shandong Province are superior and the overall economic strength and social development level are both in the leading level of the whole country since 1995 ~ 2010. The water consumption of Shandong Province is on the whole decreasing, but the shortage of water resources in Shandong Province is due to the serious water shortage in Shandong Province, coupled with the lack of reasonable and effective development and utilization of water resources, serious water pollution and seawater invasion. The results can provide a basis for the scientific formulation of water resources development and management measures. (2) three kinds of water consumption driving factors are studied and the main driving factors are extracted. According to the characteristics of the users, the water is divided into three categories: production water, domestic water and ecological environment water. The driving factors of each kind of water are analyzed according to the characteristics of natural, economic and social development in Shandong Province. Finally, by using principal component analysis, grey correlation degree analysis and set pair analysis, the primary driving factors of water consumption in the first, second and third industries are selected, such as irrigation water quota, water consumption of ten thousand yuan output value and total tourism income. The consumption level of urban residents and the area of landscape green space were selected as the main driving factors of water consumption. (3) the changes of water consumption and its driving factors in Shandong Province were predicted and discussed. The grey GM (1K1) model was used to predict the value of the driving factors selected from 2020, and the multivariate linear regression model was used to predict the water consumption of the first, second and third industries, urban domestic water, rural domestic water and ecological water consumption in 2020, respectively. The results show that the water consumption of primary industry is decreasing, and the decrease of irrigation area and crop sowing area is the main factor that causes the decrease of water consumption in primary industry. The water consumption of the secondary industry will be reduced by 611 million m3 under the influence of the decrease of the water consumption in the output value of ten thousand yuan, and the driving factor of the water consumption of the tertiary industry will continue to rise steadily in the future, resulting in the increase of the water consumption of the tertiary industry to 677 million m3 in the production water. Urban domestic water consumption will continue to increase driven by the consumption level of urban residents, while in rural areas, urban water consumption will not increase but decrease due to migrant workers and high-speed urbanization, and urbanization will also lead to an increase in the area of green space. In turn, ecological water consumption increases.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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