水電廠電力設(shè)備事故應(yīng)急響應(yīng)FPN-MC模型及效能分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-06-23 23:53
本文選題:水電廠電力設(shè)備 + 應(yīng)急響應(yīng); 參考:《中國安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)技術(shù)》2017年04期
【摘要】:為更好地利用信息技術(shù)研究水電廠電力設(shè)備事故應(yīng)急效能,提高應(yīng)急救援效率和應(yīng)急處置能力,綜合考慮應(yīng)急響應(yīng)過程中各個環(huán)節(jié)時間的隨機性與模糊性,運用模糊Petri網(wǎng)(FPN)和馬爾科夫鏈(MC)理論,構(gòu)建水電廠電力設(shè)備事故應(yīng)急響應(yīng)FPN-MC模型,求解模糊穩(wěn)態(tài)概率值并分析系統(tǒng)效能指標。最后,以ZLB水電廠電力設(shè)備事故Ⅲ級應(yīng)急響應(yīng)作為實例,進一步剖析應(yīng)急流程信息擁擠的瓶頸環(huán)節(jié)及事件應(yīng)急處置的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點。結(jié)果表明:應(yīng)急資源使用完畢、相關(guān)人員現(xiàn)場處置到位、確定完善的處置方案時的狀態(tài)最為繁忙;利用資源實施救援、相關(guān)人員進行現(xiàn)場處置、完善處置方案等實施過程需要重點監(jiān)督和管理。
[Abstract]:In order to make better use of information technology to study the emergency efficiency of power equipment accidents in hydropower plants, and to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue and emergency handling, the randomness and fuzziness of each link in the process of emergency response are considered synthetically. Based on the theory of fuzzy Petri net (FPN) and Markov chain (MC), the FPN-MC model of emergency response to power equipment accident in hydropower plant is constructed. The fuzzy steady-state probability value is solved and the system effectiveness index is analyzed. Finally, taking the level 鈪,
本文編號:2059005
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