本文選題：水網(wǎng)航道 + 通過能力計算�。� 參考：《武漢理工大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水路運輸具有運能大、成本低、能耗低、污染小、占地少等特點，符合國家建設資源節(jié)約型、環(huán)境友好型社會的要求，在承擔能源、大宗物資和重大裝備等方面有著明顯優(yōu)勢。研究水網(wǎng)航道的通過能力，增加對復雜水網(wǎng)中船舶交通流流動機制的理解，可以有效地評估水網(wǎng)地區(qū)的航道利用現(xiàn)狀，，為水上交通組織、港口及航道規(guī)劃提供決策支持，具有重要的理論意義和實際應用價值。 目前，通過能力的研究主要集中在通道式航道或者交通較為密集的港口、船閘，水網(wǎng)航道通過能力研究尚處于起步階段。由于水網(wǎng)的網(wǎng)狀結構特征，船舶之間、節(jié)點之間相互作用復雜，現(xiàn)有的方法、模型不能直接應用于水網(wǎng)，水網(wǎng)交通流和通過能力仿真模型的研究尚處于探索階段；水網(wǎng)與路網(wǎng)有一定的相似性，國內(nèi)外對于路網(wǎng)的研究較為成熟，已有部分研究人員借鑒其路徑選擇模型進行了水路交通方面的研究。但道路交通與水路交通存在差異，路網(wǎng)領域相關方法模型應用于水網(wǎng)航道需要進行修改和完善。 本文以內(nèi)河水網(wǎng)作為研究對象，基于時空消耗分析建立了水網(wǎng)通過能力理論計算模型。利用仿真軟件SIVAK對不同交通組織情況下的水網(wǎng)航道船舶交通流進行了仿真。結合離散選擇模型、模糊邏輯和因子分析，提出了水網(wǎng)路徑選擇模型，在此基礎上，利用計算機仿真技術，開發(fā)航道通過能力仿真軟件，對水網(wǎng)航道的通過能力進行仿真模擬和預測。 具體研究工作包括以下幾個方面： （1）通過調(diào)研獲取浙北水網(wǎng)的自然環(huán)境、航道環(huán)境特征，運用統(tǒng)計工具分析所研究水域的船舶交通流，為通過能力理論計算及仿真奠定基礎。 （2）根據(jù)浙北水網(wǎng)船舶航行實測資料回歸出適合于內(nèi)河水網(wǎng)航行特點的船舶安全間距模型。結合船舶的行為特征，為不同水網(wǎng)節(jié)點類型計算出節(jié)點處船舶交通時空損耗，并最終建立水網(wǎng)通過能力模型。通過實際對比，所建立的模型能夠較真實地反映了水網(wǎng)地區(qū)船舶通過能力，通過分析船舶流組成，船舶長度、速度等參數(shù)變化進一步分析了其對通過能力的影響，為水網(wǎng)地區(qū)航運管理，水運挖潛提供有益參考。 （3）利用仿真軟件SIVAK對所選定的水網(wǎng)交通流進行仿真，分析不同的交通組織模式（雙向通航，單向通航、停航或混合模式等）下，船舶通過能力、等待時間和平均速度。 （4）根據(jù)網(wǎng)狀結構模型下水網(wǎng)地區(qū)航道船舶路徑選擇行為特征，基于離散選擇模，結合模糊邏輯與因子分析，構造一種水網(wǎng)航道船舶路徑選擇模型。在該模型的基礎上，實現(xiàn)航道通過能力的計算機仿真模擬；通過仿真實驗，驗證模型的準確性和可靠性，并利用仿真軟件進行仿真試驗，對所研究水網(wǎng)航道的交通流進行預測和分析。
[Abstract]:The waterway transportation has the characteristics of large capacity , low cost , low energy consumption , small pollution , less land occupation and the like , accords with the requirements of the national construction resource conservation and environment - friendly society , and has obvious advantages in the aspects of energy , commodities and major equipment .

At present , the research of capacity is mainly focused on the channel type navigation channel or the more dense port and lock , and the waterway passage ability of the ship lock and water network is still in the initial stage . Due to the network structure characteristics of the water network , the interaction between the ship and the nodes is complex , the existing method and the model cannot be directly applied to the water network , the water network traffic flow and the research on the capacity simulation model are still in the exploration stage ;
There are some similarities between the water network and the road network , and the research of road network is more mature at home and abroad . However , some researchers have used the path selection model to carry out the research on waterway transportation . However , there is a difference between road traffic and waterway transportation .

Based on the analysis of space - time consumption , the paper establishes a model of water - net route selection based on the analysis of space - time consumption . Based on the discrete selection model , fuzzy logic and factor analysis , a water network path selection model is proposed . Based on the discrete selection model , fuzzy logic and factor analysis , a network path selection model is proposed .

Specific studies include the following aspects :

( 1 ) Based on the investigation and acquisition of the natural environment and channel environment characteristics of Zhejiang North Water Network , the ship traffic flow in the studied waters is analyzed by means of statistical tools , which lays the foundation for the calculation and simulation of the capacity theory .

( 2 ) The ship safety distance model suitable for inland river network navigation is established according to the measured data of the ship navigation in the northern Zhejiang province . In combination with the behavior characteristics of the ship , the space - time loss of the ship in the node is calculated for different types of water network nodes , and finally , the capacity model is established . Through the actual comparison , the established model can reflect the influence of the ship flow composition , the ship length , the speed and other parameters to further analyze the influence on the passing capacity , and provide a beneficial reference for the navigation management and the water transport tapping in the water network area .

( 3 ) The simulation software SIVAK is used to simulate the traffic flow of the selected water network , and the ship passing capacity , waiting time and average speed are analyzed under different modes of traffic organization ( two - way navigation , one - way navigation , suspended or mixed mode , etc . ) .

( 4 ) Based on discrete selection model , combining fuzzy logic and factor analysis , a ship path selection model is constructed based on discrete selection module , combining fuzzy logic and factor analysis .
Through the simulation experiment , the accuracy and reliability of the model are verified , and the simulation test is carried out by using the simulation software to forecast and analyze the traffic flow of the waterway .
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U697;U612

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