本文選題：LARS-WG + 氣候變化��； 參考：《中國農村水利水電》2016年08期

【摘要】：湖泊防洪設計水位是湖泊保護、工程規(guī)劃和水資源高效利用的重要依據,但氣候變化對湖泊防洪設計水位變化的影響并沒有得到足夠的重視。為研究不同氣候變化情景對湖泊防洪設計水位的影響,根據大氣環(huán)流模式CCSM3的結果,利用隨機天氣發(fā)生器LARS-WG對基準期氣候數據進行分析并生成2011-2040年30年逐日氣象資料。同時結合暴雨管理模型(SWMM)計算了南方平原湖泊聯合調蓄情景下的設計洪水位,并對閘門和泵站的流量過程進行了模擬計算。計算結果表明,基準期和A1B、A2和B1三種排放情景下的設計暴雨值存在顯著差異,由此導致了設計洪水位存在顯著差異;在湖泊聯合調蓄情景下,小南海、慶壽寺湖和馬淹湖等3個湖泊的設計洪水位變化特征不一致,其中,小南海湖泊變化較為顯著,而慶壽寺湖則不明顯。為進一步分析設計洪水位的影響因素,對結果進行多因子誤差分析。分析結果表明,地點、重現期兩個因素對設計洪水位的影響非常顯著,情景模式的影響也比較大,但比前兩者略弱;地點、重現期、情景模式3個因素兩兩組合造成的影響不顯著。根據對未來設計洪水位和閘門、泵站流量的動態(tài)分析,建議做好進一步的湖泊防洪規(guī)劃工作。
[Abstract]:The design water level of lake flood control is an important basis for lake protection, engineering planning and efficient utilization of water resources. However, the influence of climate change on lake flood control design water level change has not been paid enough attention to. In order to study the effect of different climate change scenarios on the design water level of lake flood control, according to the results of CCSM3, a random weather generator LARS-WG is used to analyze the climate data of the base period and generate daily meteorological data for 30 years from 2011-2040. At the same time, combined with the rainstorm management model (SWMMM), the design flood water level was calculated under the combined regulation and storage scenario of lakes in the Southern Plain, and the flow process of the sluice gates and pumping stations was simulated and calculated. The calculated results show that there are significant differences in the design rainstorm values between the base period and the A1BN A2 and B1 emission scenarios, resulting in significant differences in the design flood water levels, and in the small South China Sea under the combined lake storage scenario. The variation characteristics of design flood water level of Qingshousi Lake and Mayan Lake are different, among which, the change of Xiaongnanhai Lake is more significant, but Qingshousi Lake is not obvious. In order to further analyze the influencing factors of the design flood water level, the multi-factor error analysis of the results is carried out. The results show that the impact of two factors on the design flood water level is very significant, and the influence of scenario model is also greater than that of the former two factors. The effect caused by the combination of three factors of scenario mode is not significant. Based on the dynamic analysis of flood level, sluice gate and pumping station discharge in the future, it is suggested that further flood control planning should be done.
【作者單位】： 水電與數字化工程學院華中科技大學;水資源與農村水利研究所湖北省水利水電科學研究院;
【分類號】：P467;TV87

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