本文選題：氣候變化 + 人類活動��； 參考：《北京師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：定量區(qū)分氣候變化和人類活動對徑流的影響,對區(qū)域水資源管理具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義.本文基于實測徑流數(shù)據(jù)和前人重構(gòu)的自然徑流數(shù)據(jù),借助趨勢分析、突變檢驗、多元線性回歸等方法,定量分析渭河流域氣候變化和人類活動對徑流的影響,并通過與水文敏感性系數(shù)方法的分析結(jié)果相比較,進(jìn)一步驗證結(jié)果.結(jié)果表明:1965—2012年華縣站、張家山站和狀頭站的實測徑流分別以7.99×10~8、2.86×10~8和0.787×10~8 m~3·(10a)~(-1)的趨勢減小(α0.05).氣象要素中,渭河干流的風(fēng)速和相對濕度呈顯著減小的趨勢,氣溫呈顯著增加的趨勢(α0.05);涇河流域的相對濕度呈顯著減小的趨勢,潛在蒸散發(fā)和氣溫呈顯著增加的趨勢(α0.05);北洛河流域各氣象要素的變化趨勢同涇河流域相似.突變檢驗表明華縣站、張家山站和狀頭站的年實測徑流分別在1993、1996和1994年前后發(fā)生了突變,其徑流分別下降了38.81%、47.67%和42.22%.多元回歸分析表明氣候變化對華縣站、張家山站和狀頭站徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為49.30%、38.05%和69.86%.水文敏感性分析方法的結(jié)果同多元回歸方法相似,氣候變化對3個水文站徑流變化的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為48.61%、39.21%和64.86%.
[Abstract]:It is of great practical significance to quantitatively distinguish the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff for regional water resources management. Based on the measured runoff data and the reconstructed natural runoff data, this paper quantitatively analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin by means of trend analysis, abrupt change test and multivariate linear regression. The results are further verified by comparison with the analytical results of hydrological sensitivity coefficient method. The results show that the observed runoff of Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station in the year 1965-2012 are 7.99 脳 10 ~ (8) ~ 2.86 脳 10 ~ (-8) and 0.787 脳 10 ~ (8) m ~ (3) ~ (10 ~ (10) ~ (-1), respectively (偽 0.05 ~ (-1). Among the meteorological elements, the wind speed and relative humidity of the main stream of Weihe River decreased significantly, the air temperature increased significantly (偽 0.05), and the relative humidity of Jing River basin decreased significantly. The potential evapotranspiration and temperature increased significantly (偽 0.05), and the variation trend of meteorological elements in the North Luohe River Basin was similar to that in the Jing River Basin. The abrupt change test showed that the annual measured runoff of Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station had a sudden change before and after 1993 / 96 and 1994 respectively, and the runoff decreased by 47.67% and 42.22%, respectively, in Huaxian station, Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station, and the runoff was decreased by 38.81% and 42.22% respectively. Multiple regression analysis showed that the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change of Huaxian station Zhangjiashan station and Xiangtou station was 49.30% 38.05% and 69.8665% respectively. The result of hydrological sensitivity analysis is similar to that of multivariate regression method. The contribution rate of climate change to runoff variation in three hydrological stations is 48.61% and 64.86% respectively.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學(xué)地表過程與資源生態(tài)國家重點實驗室;北京師范大學(xué)地理科學(xué)學(xué)部遙感科學(xué)與工程研究院;北京師范大學(xué)地理科學(xué)學(xué)部;河北工程大學(xué)礦業(yè)與測繪工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家高分辨率對地觀測重大專項基金資助項目(民用部分) 高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點專項科研基金資助項目(20130003120041)
【分類號】：P333

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本文編號：1940537