本文選題：洪水預報 + HEC-HMS�。� 參考：《太原理工大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：受降雨條件、前期土壤含水量情況、流域下墊面條件等多方面因素的影響,山洪災害事件常常發(fā)生,給生態(tài)環(huán)境、社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來嚴重的損害。因此,如何把握洪水變化規(guī)律,科學合理地建立最優(yōu)預報模型,準確實時地進行預報,減少山洪災害發(fā)生,成為水文學者認真研究和探索的一個重要課題。本文以長治市絳河北張店典型流域為研究區(qū)域,采用北張店流域12個雨量站(里莊,中村,西上村,八泉,北張店,崔家莊,下安莊,吳而,郭家莊,王家灣,南坡,芳草溝)、1個水文站(北張店)1964~2016年的資料,分析流域洪水特性以及不同年代洪水變化規(guī)律,在分析的同時應該結合其下墊面條件。選擇洪水預報方案構建預報模型,對參數(shù)進行率定、優(yōu)化、敏感性分析,一部分洪水用于水文模型模擬,一部分場次洪水進行模型驗證。對不同水土保持活動下產(chǎn)匯流參數(shù)進行研究,從而得出各種水土保持方案下產(chǎn)匯流的相關參數(shù)。分析了不同水保措施對產(chǎn)匯流影響,并對模型所選參數(shù)的取值進行分析。主要研究內(nèi)容和取得成果如下:(1)北張店流域洪水特性分析。對北張店水文站64場洪水年最大洪峰流量進行頻率分析,將洪水分為大、中、小3類。分析洪峰流量年際變化,洪峰流量整體呈下降趨勢,大洪水主要發(fā)生在60年代,中洪水在70年代發(fā)生頻率最大,為33.3%。從80年代后,小洪水發(fā)生場次逐漸增加,發(fā)生的頻率可達94.4%。分析洪峰流量年內(nèi)變化,小洪水主要產(chǎn)生于7~8月,中洪水主要產(chǎn)生于7月,大洪水主要產(chǎn)生于6、7、8月。實施水保措施后,洪水洪量和洪峰流量衰減幅度分別為10.7%~42.7%和19.3%~75.9%,滯時衰減幅度達100%�？芍４胧⿲ο鳒p洪量和洪峰流量及延長滯時有顯著效果。(2)北張店流域HEC-HMS模型構建。根據(jù)北張店降雨徑流資料,建立流域產(chǎn)匯流模型。根據(jù)模型原理在該流域構建了HEC-HMS模型,產(chǎn)流模式采用SCS曲線法(SCS Curve Number),坡面匯流采用SCS單位線法(SCS unit hydrograph),基流模塊計算采用指數(shù)消退法(Exponential recession),河道匯流模塊采用馬斯京根法(Muskingum)�？茖W合理的構建適合于北張店流域的水文模型為洪水預報奠定基礎。(3)北張店流域洪水預報實例分析。在1964~2016年期間,利用目標函數(shù)法和人工試錯法結合對20場洪水模型參數(shù)進行率定,利用內(nèi)爾德米德算法優(yōu)化參數(shù),采用擾動分析方法對其敏感性具體分析,對44場洪水進行驗證模擬。根據(jù)模型敏感性參數(shù)按影響程度由大到小為徑流曲線數(shù)CN、滯時Lag Time。CN與洪峰流量、洪量呈正相關關系。驗證期模擬洪水合格率為77.3%,預報結果達到乙級標準,對研究區(qū)未來洪水預報有相當高的參考價值。(4)北張店流域不同水土保持工程措施對模型參數(shù)影響研究。對不同水土保持活動下產(chǎn)匯流參數(shù)進行研究,不同水土保持工程措施下產(chǎn)匯流進行計算分析,并對特定水保措施下模型所選參數(shù)的取值進行分析。從水保措施對模型參數(shù)的影響上來看,采取魚鱗坑水保措施后,子流域魚鱗坑面積增加15%,CN減小3.75%,產(chǎn)流能力下降;當谷坊增加15座時,匯流時間增加,Lag Time將延長9%。從而延緩了河道匯流過程。
[Abstract]:Influenced by the conditions of rainfall, the water content in the early stage and the conditions of the underlying surface of the basin, the mountain flood events often occur, which bring serious damage to the ecological environment and the social and economic development. Therefore, how to grasp the law of the flood change, establish the optimal forecast model scientifically and rationally, accurately and accurately predict the flood, and reduce the mountain torrents The occurrence of disasters has become an important topic for hydrology scholars to study and explore. This paper takes the typical river basin of Zhangdian, Hebei, Changzhi as the research area, and uses 12 rainfall stations in the northern Zhangdian River Basin (Li Zhuang, Zhong village, West upper village, eight spring, North Zhangdian, Cui Jia Zhuang, Xia an Zhuang, Wu, Guo Jia Zhuang, Wangjiawan, south slope, Fang Cao gully), and 1 hydrological stations (North Zhang) The data of 1964~2016 years are used to analyze the characteristics of river basin flood and the law of flood change in different years. At the same time, we should combine the underlying surface conditions with the analysis, select the flood forecast scheme to build the forecast model, determine the parameters, optimize and analyze the sensitivity, some flood is used in the hydrological model simulation, and a part of the field flood model is modeled. The parameters of the runoff yield under different soil and water conservation activities were studied, and the related parameters of the runoff yield under various soil and water conservation schemes were obtained. The effects of different water conservation measures on the runoff and confluence were analyzed, and the values of the parameters selected were analyzed. The main contents and results were as follows: (1) the analysis of flood characteristics in the northern Zhangdian basin. The annual maximum flood peak flow rate of 64 fields in the North Zhangdian hydrological station is analyzed, and the flood is divided into 3 types: large, medium and small. Analysis of the annual variation of the flood peak flow, the overall flow of the flood peak is decreasing, the major flood occurs mainly in 60s, and the middle flood occurs most frequently in 70s, and the occurrence of the small flood is gradually increased after the 33.3%. from 80s. The occurrence frequency can reach 94.4%. analysis Hong Feng flow year change, small flood is mainly produced in 7~8 month, middle flood is mainly produced in July, large flood is mainly produced in 6,7,8 month. After implementing water conservation measures, Flood flood and Hong Feng flow attenuation amplitude are respectively 10.7%~42.7% and 19.3%~75.9%, the lag time attenuation range is 100%. knowable that water conservation measures are cut. The HEC-HMS model of the northern Zhangdian basin is constructed. According to the rainfall runoff data in northern Zhangdian, the model of the catchment runoff is established. According to the model principle, the HEC-HMS model is built in this basin. The runoff yield model is based on the SCS curve method (SCS Curve Number) and the SCS unit line method (SCS unit) is used for the slope confluence. Hydrograph), the calculation of the basic flow module uses the exponential regression method (Exponential recession), the watercourse confluence module uses the Muskingum method (Muskingum). The scientific and reasonable construction of the hydrological model suitable for the northern Zhangdian basin lays the foundation for the flood forecast. (3) an example analysis of the flood water forecast in the North Zhangdian basin. During the period of 1964~2016, the target function is used. The method and artificial test and error method are combined to determine the parameters of the 20 flood model, and the Neil Demy DE algorithm is used to optimize the parameters, and the sensitivity is analyzed by the perturbation analysis method. The 44 field floods are simulated and simulated. According to the sensitivity parameters of the model, the number of runoff curves is CN, and the lag time Lag Time.CN and the flood peak flow are found. There is a positive correlation of flood capacity. The qualified rate of the simulated flood is 77.3%, the result of the forecast reaches the standard of grade B and has a high reference value to the future flood forecast in the study area. (4) the influence of different soil and water conservation engineering measures on the model parameters in the northern Zhangdian basin. According to the effect of water conservation measures on the model parameters, the fish scale pit area increased by 15%, CN decreased by 3.75%, and the flow capacity decreased, and the confluence time was 15 when the valley was increased by 15. The increase of Lag Time will prolong 9%., thus slowing down the confluence process of the river.
【學位授予單位】：太原理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S157;TV122

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