本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論 + 汛限水位��； 參考：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：洪水資源化作為一種新的治水理念,成為解決區(qū)域水資源短缺的一項(xiàng)有效措施。洪水資源化對(duì)水庫(kù)而言是實(shí)現(xiàn)防洪和興利并舉,而汛限水位是水庫(kù)防洪和興利的結(jié)合點(diǎn),汛限水位的過(guò)高或者過(guò)低會(huì)直接影響水庫(kù)的防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和興利效益,而隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)和人類社會(huì)的進(jìn)步,人們對(duì)安全可靠的要求越來(lái)越高,因此,研究基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論的水汛限水位控制方式具有重要意義。論文以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論為主線,以汛限水位控制為目的,詳細(xì)研究了水庫(kù)調(diào)度中防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的制約因素,發(fā)展了水庫(kù)調(diào)度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論體系,構(gòu)建了較為通用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)度模型,并用于陜西省石頭河水庫(kù)汛限水位控制方案的研究。具體研究結(jié)果如下:(1)水庫(kù)汛限水位控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析程序的建立。以經(jīng)典的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析理論入手,系統(tǒng)歸納了水庫(kù)調(diào)度中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義、特征及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的程序。從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的形式、主要因素以及后果三方面詳細(xì)的對(duì)水庫(kù)調(diào)度中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了識(shí)別;從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率及后果大小的角度對(duì)水庫(kù)調(diào)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)的方法做了深刻的剖析;通過(guò)歸納水庫(kù)調(diào)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法,論述了水庫(kù)調(diào)度運(yùn)行中方案的決策。最后論證了水庫(kù)汛限水位控制和水庫(kù)調(diào)度之間辯證統(tǒng)一的關(guān)系:即汛限水位控制需要水庫(kù)調(diào)度來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn),而水庫(kù)調(diào)度的起調(diào)水位為汛限水位。在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了一套較為完整的汛限水位控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析程序。(2)水庫(kù)防洪通用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型的構(gòu)建。選取影響水庫(kù)防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子:洪水、庫(kù)容、泄流能力、起調(diào)水位和風(fēng)浪,以概率的基本定理為基礎(chǔ)建立了防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,并從模型因子的數(shù)量和模型因子服從的分布函數(shù)的角度總結(jié)了模型求解方法的適用性。最后以石頭河水庫(kù)為例,選取了校核水位作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo),洪水作為主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子,用頻率分析法計(jì)算了不同汛限水位方案(798.00m、798.50m、799.00m、799.50m、801.00m)下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率,并將10-6作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率的允許風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),當(dāng)汛限水位抬高至799.00m時(shí),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率為9×10-6,依舊在允許范圍內(nèi)。因此可以得出結(jié)論:石頭河水庫(kù)庫(kù)水位799.00m為汛期允許正常蓄水的最高水位。(3)水庫(kù)供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型的構(gòu)建。選取影響水庫(kù)供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子:入庫(kù)徑流、興利庫(kù)容、調(diào)度規(guī)則、下游河道生態(tài)需水量、蒸發(fā)滲漏,同樣以概率的基本定理為基礎(chǔ)建立水庫(kù)供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型;同時(shí)選取可靠性、易損性和事故周期作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo),通過(guò)對(duì)石頭河水庫(kù)供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的分析,選取入庫(kù)徑流作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子,以“1-設(shè)計(jì)保證率”為允許風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),采用長(zhǎng)系列興利調(diào)度計(jì)算得到結(jié)論:石頭河水庫(kù)庫(kù)水位798.00m為汛期興利蓄水的最低水位。(4)基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論的汛限水位分期控制運(yùn)用研究。介紹了傳統(tǒng)汛限水位控制運(yùn)用的缺點(diǎn),闡述了基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論的分期控制方法的適用性。綜合考慮了石頭河水庫(kù)的防洪和供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在對(duì)石頭河水庫(kù)汛期分期的基礎(chǔ)上,最終得到石頭河水庫(kù)汛限水位控制方案,即在主汛期(7月11日~8月10日)汛限水位為798.00m~799.00m,汛前期(05月21日~07月10日)汛限水位從801.00m逐步降低到799.00m,汛后期(08月11日~09月20日)逐漸從799.00m回升到801.00m,其他時(shí)期以801.00m為控制,最后有針對(duì)性的提出了水庫(kù)汛限水位控制中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低的措施。
[Abstract]:As a new idea of water treatment, flood resources become an effective measure to solve the shortage of water resources in the region. Flood resource utilization is a combination of flood control and profit making, and the limit water level is the combination of flood control and profit making in the reservoir. The high or too low flood limit water level will directly affect the risk of flood control and benefit benefit of the reservoir. With the progress of science and technology and the progress of human society, people demand more and more safety and reliability. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the limited water level control mode of water flood based on risk theory. The thesis takes the risk theory as the main line and takes the control of the flood limit as the purpose of the flood control, and studies the restriction of the flood risk and the water supply risk in the reservoir scheduling. The risk theory system of reservoir operation is developed and a more general risk scheduling model is constructed and used in the study of the limited water level control scheme of the flood water reservoir in Shaanxi province. The concrete results are as follows: (1) the establishment of the risk analysis program for the control of the reservoir flood limit water level control. The definition of risk in scheduling, the characteristics and the procedure of risk analysis. From the form of risk occurrence, the main factors and the consequences of the three aspects of the risk identification of reservoir scheduling, from the probability of risk occurrence and the size of the consequences of the reservoir scheduling risk estimation of the square method is deeply analyzed, through the induction of reservoir scheduling wind. At last, the dialectical and unified relationship between the control of the limited water level of the reservoir and the dispatching of the reservoir is demonstrated: the control of the limited water level in the flood season requires the operation of the reservoir, and the regulating water level of the reservoir operation is limited to the limit of the flood level. (2) construction of the general risk model of reservoir flood control, select the main risk factors that affect the risk of flood control: flood, reservoir capacity, discharge capacity, water level and wind wave, based on the basic theorem of probability, establish the risk model of flood control, and from the point of view of the quantity of model factors and the distribution function of model factors. Finally, the applicability of the model solution method is summarized. Finally, taking the stone river reservoir as an example, the checking water level is selected as the risk index. As the main risk factor, the flood is used to calculate the risk rate under different flood limit water level schemes (798.00m, 798.50m, 799.00m, 799.50m, 801.00m) by frequency analysis, and 10-6 is used as the risk standard of risk rate. When the limit water level of the flood season is raised to 799.00m, the risk rate is 9 x 10-6, which is still within the allowable range. Therefore, it can be concluded that the water level of the reservoir reservoir of the stone river reservoir is 799.00m as the highest water level to allow the normal water storage in the flood season. (3) the construction of the reservoir water supply risk model. The degree rule, the ecological water demand of the downstream river and the evaporation leakage, also set up the reservoir water supply risk model based on the basic theorem of probability, and select the reliability, vulnerability and the accident cycle as the index of risk assessment, and select the storehouse runoff as the risk factor by the analysis of the risk factors of the water supply of the stone river bank, and the "1- design" The guarantee rate is to allow the risk standard, and it is concluded that the water level 798.00m of the reservoir of the stone river reservoir is the lowest water level of Xingli storage in the flood season. (4) the study on the use of the risk theory for the control of the limited water level in the flood season. The shortcomings of the traditional flood control water level control and transportation are introduced, and the staging control based on the risk theory is expounded. The flood control and water supply risk of the stone river reservoir are taken into consideration. On the basis of the staging of the flood season of the stone river reservoir, the limit water level control scheme for the flood water reservoir is finally obtained. That is, the limit water level of the flood season is 798.00m~799.00m in the main flood season (10 ~8 month of July 11th), and the limit water level of the flood season (05 month 21 days ~07 month) is from 801.00m. Step down to 799.00m, the late flood period (11 ~09 month 20 of 08 months) gradually from 799.00m to 801.00m, and the other period is controlled by 801.00m. Finally, the measures of reducing the risk in the control of the reservoir flood limit water level are put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.13

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