本文選題：氣候變化 + 人類活動��； 參考：《新疆大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：開都河是我國著名的內(nèi)陸河之一,同時作為博斯騰湖的一個重要的補給源,對流域的生態(tài)環(huán)境起著很重要的作用。并且開都河不僅為當?shù)亟?jīng)濟發(fā)展和生態(tài)平衡起到了重要的維持作用,而且擔負著向塔里木河下游生態(tài)輸水的重要任務。開都河徑流量的變化將會對周邊地區(qū)的生態(tài)環(huán)境以及農(nóng)畜牧業(yè)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重大影響。過去的幾十年中,在區(qū)域氣候變化和人類活動的共同作用下,開都河流域徑流量發(fā)生了一系列的變化。本文利用近53年來,開都河流域水文、氣象和人為因素資料,運用統(tǒng)計相關(guān)分析等有關(guān)理論與方法并結(jié)合非參數(shù)Mann-Kendall趨勢檢驗和突變檢驗等研究方法,揭示大山口站和焉耆站徑流量與流域氣候要素(降水、氣溫)時間序列的變化規(guī)律和趨勢;接著分析影響開都河中下游徑流量的有效灌溉面積,灌溉耗水量,耕地面積,人口,灌區(qū)引水量等人類活動因素的變化情況;最后采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法計算并分析人為要素和氣象要素對大山口站徑流量和焉耆站徑流量變化的權(quán)重,評價其影響程度,并進行對比分析。通過定量和定性分析所得到的結(jié)果如下:(1)近53年來,開都河大山口站年均徑流量呈現(xiàn)遞增趨勢,變化率為0.1892(m3/s)/10a。1960~2012年期間,開都河大山口站年均徑流量變化過程可以分為四個階段。1960~1971年期間,呈現(xiàn)先減少后增加趨勢。1972~1986年期間,呈現(xiàn)波動減少趨勢。1987~2002年期間,呈現(xiàn)波動增加趨勢。2002~2012年期間,呈現(xiàn)先減少后增加趨勢,而且分別在1995年與1997年發(fā)生兩次突變。開都河焉耆站年均徑流量大體上呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢。1960~2012年期間,開都河焉耆站年均徑流量變化過程可以分為三個階段。1960~1974年期間,呈現(xiàn)波浪式減少趨勢,徑流量減少了14.05億m3。1975~2002年期間,呈現(xiàn)波浪式增加趨勢。2003~2012年期間,大體上呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢。在1993年發(fā)生了一次突變,2003年以后年均徑流量持續(xù)下降。(2)通過分析開都河流域的6個氣象站的氣溫和降水量變化趨勢與突變檢驗得知,各個站氣溫和降水量都呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,但年平均氣溫上升趨勢比年平均降水量更為顯著。焉耆站年平均降水量沒有發(fā)生突變,年均氣溫發(fā)生突變。和碩站年均氣溫和降水量都沒有發(fā)生突變。和靜站年均降水量和氣溫都發(fā)生突變。巴音布魯克站年均氣溫沒有突變發(fā)生,年均降水量發(fā)生突變。大山口站和巴倫臺站年均氣溫和降水量都發(fā)生突變。各站年均降水量突變發(fā)生在1981~1986年和2008~2009年期間,年平均氣溫突變發(fā)生在1981~1989年和1996~1997年期間。(3)1960~2012年期間,人類活動和自然因素對徑流量的影響在不同時間段呈現(xiàn)出不同的灰色相關(guān)權(quán)重。整體的趨勢還是自然因素占據(jù)主導地位,這是由于人類活動影響的時間較短,在未來的趨勢中,人為因素將占據(jù)主導地位。對于大山口站年均徑流量來說,在1960~1971年期間,自然因素對徑流量的影響最大;在1972~1986年期間,自然因素對徑流量的變化起主導作用,人類活動的影響較少。1987~2003年期間,人類活動對徑流量的影響開始增強。在2003~2012年期間,隨著人類活動的日益頻繁,人為因素已經(jīng)成為徑流量變化的主導因子,而自然因素對徑流量的影響呈現(xiàn)弱化態(tài)勢。對于焉耆站年均徑流量來說,1960~1974年期間,自然因素對徑流量的影響最大。1975~2002對徑流量的影響開始增強,2003~2012年期間,人為因素已經(jīng)成為徑流量變化的主要因素。人類活動與氣候變化對大山口站徑流量與焉耆站徑流量的不同時間段呈現(xiàn)出的不同灰色權(quán)重進行對比,得知焉耆站與人類活動因素的關(guān)聯(lián)度較高,即受人類活動的影響比大山口站強。而且人類開始影響焉耆站徑流量的時間比大山口徑流量的早。
[Abstract]:The opening river is one of the famous inland rivers in our country, and is an important supply source of Bosten Lake, which plays an important role in the ecological environment of the river basin. And the opening river not only plays an important maintenance role for the local economic development and ecological balance, but also plays an important role in the ecological water transport to the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The changes in the river runoff will have a significant impact on the ecological environment and the development of farming and animal husbandry in the surrounding areas. In the past few decades, a series of changes have taken place in the open river basin under the common effects of regional climate change and human activities. In the last 53 years, the hydrology, meteorology and human factors in the capital of the Ku Du River Basin have been used in this paper. By using the relevant theories and methods of statistical correlation analysis, and combining with the non parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation test, the changes and trends of the runoff and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature) time series of the Dashan station and YanQi Railway Station are revealed, and the effective irrigation of the middle and lower reaches of the river is analyzed. The changes of human activity factors such as irrigation area, irrigation water consumption, arable land, population, irrigation area and so on. Finally, the grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate and analyze the weight of artificial elements and meteorological factors on the runoff of Dashan station and the change of the runoff of YanQi Railway Station, and to compare and analyze the influence degree. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out. The results are as follows: (1) in the last 53 years, the annual average flow rate of the grand Yamaguchi station in Kai Du River shows an increasing trend, the rate of change is 0.1892 (m3/s) /10a.1960~2012 years, the annual average runoff change process of the grand Yamaguchi station in Kai Du River can be divided into four stages.1960~1971 years, showing the first decreasing and then increasing trend in the period of.1972~1986 years. The trend of fluctuation decreases in.1987~2002 years, showing a trend of increasing trend in.2002~2012 years, showing a first decreasing trend, and two abrupt changes in 1995 and 1997. The annual average annual runoff of YanQi Railway Station is generally reduced in.1960~2012 years, and the annual average runoff process of the YanQi Railway Station of Kai Du River can be divided into two years. During the three phase of.1960~1974, the trend of wave type reduction was presented, the runoff was reduced by 1 billion 405 million m3.1975~2002 years, and the trend of wave type increased in the period of.2003~2012 years, which showed a general trend of decrease. A sudden change occurred in 1993, and the annual average annual runoff decreased continuously after 2003. (2) through the analysis of 6 gas in the capital of the capital River Basin The change trend of temperature and precipitation in the image station and the mutation test showed that the temperature and precipitation of each station showed an upward trend, but the annual average temperature rising trend was more significant than the annual average precipitation. The annual average precipitation in YanQi Railway Station did not change, the annual average temperature had a sudden change. The annual average precipitation and the temperature of the HeJing Railway Station are abrupt. The annual average temperature of the station and the annual average temperature and precipitation are abrupt abrupt. The annual mean temperature and precipitation of the station of the Dashan station and the Ba Lun Tai Railway Station are abrupt in 1981~1986 and 2008~ 2009, and the annual average temperature change occurs in 1981~ During the period of 1989 and 1996~1997. (3) during the period of 1960~2012, the effects of human activities and natural factors on the flow rate were different in different time periods. The overall trend or natural factors dominate, which is due to the short time of human activities, and in the future trend, human factors will occupy the main factor. In the period of 1960~1971 years, natural factors have the greatest impact on runoff; during the period of 1972~1986, the natural factors play a leading role in the change of runoff, and the influence of human activity is less in the period of.1987~2003 years, and the influence of human activity on the runoff begins to increase. During the period of 2003~2012, With the increasing frequency of human activities, human factors have become the leading factor of runoff change, and the influence of natural factors on the runoff shows a weakening trend. For the average annual runoff of YanQi Railway Station, the influence of natural factors on the runoff is the largest in the period of 1960~1974 years, and the influence of.1975~ 2002 on the runoff begins to increase, and the 2003~2012 year period is increased. Human activities and climatic changes have been compared with the different grey weights of the different time periods of the Dashan mouth station and the discharge of the YanQi Railway Station. It is found that the correlation between YanQi Railway Station and human activity is higher, that is, the influence of human activity is stronger than that of the great mountain pass. The time that human began to influence the runoff of YanQi Railway Station is earlier than that of the mountain.

【學位授予單位】：新疆大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P333

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