本文選題：厄爾尼諾 + 太平洋十年濤動　； 參考：《人民黃河》2016年11期

【摘要】：利用PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件發(fā)生年份表,結(jié)合豐滿水庫流域來水實(shí)際,研究了PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件與豐滿水庫來水及洪水的統(tǒng)計規(guī)律。結(jié)果表明:PDO冷位相期El Nino發(fā)生年份豐滿水庫一般為枯水,PDO暖位相期El Nino發(fā)生年份豐滿水庫一般為豐水,豐滿水庫特豐水及大洪水多發(fā)生于PDO冷位相期。通過對1700—2014年太陽黑子相對數(shù)變化規(guī)律的分析,論證了1957年前后PDO冷位相期El Nino發(fā)生年份豐滿水庫來水規(guī)律異常與太陽黑子相對數(shù)階段性趨勢變化上的擾動有關(guān)�；诮y(tǒng)計規(guī)律,預(yù)測2015年豐滿水庫來水為枯水。
[Abstract]:Based on the occurrence year table of El Nino and La Nina events in the cold and warm phase of PDO, combined with the actual situation of water coming from Fengman reservoir basin, the statistical laws of El Nino and La Nina events and flood in Fengman reservoir under PDO cold and warm phase are studied. The results show that the Fengman reservoir is usually rich in water in the warm phase of El Nino in the cold phase of the cold phase El Nino, and in the cold phase of the PDO, the water abundance and the flood of the reservoir in Fengman reservoir are mostly in the cold phase of PDO. Based on the analysis of the variation law of sunspot relative number from 1700-2014, it is proved that the anomaly of water coming from Fengman reservoir in the year of El Nino in the cold phase period of PDO around 1957 is related to the disturbance of the phase trend change of sunspot relative number. Based on the statistical law, it is predicted that the water coming from Fengman Reservoir will be dry water in 2015.
【作者單位】： 新源控股公司豐滿發(fā)電廠;東華大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：國家“973”計劃項(xiàng)目(2013CB036406)
【分類號】：TV697.21;TV124

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