發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-27 22:42

  本文選題：武威市 + 水資源生態(tài)足跡　； 參考：《甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源不僅是地球上比較特殊的物質(zhì),也是人們生活和生產(chǎn)的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。區(qū)域生態(tài)環(huán)境的維持以及經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展都離不開水資源。武威地處河西走廊中部,巴丹吉林沙漠南緣,對河西地區(qū)生態(tài)安全意義重大。境內(nèi)氣候干旱、沙化嚴(yán)重,生態(tài)脆弱,嚴(yán)重影響了工農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展及人們的生活生產(chǎn)。農(nóng)業(yè)是武威經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ),水資源是否合理分配、高效利用關(guān)乎整個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是否穩(wěn)定有序發(fā)展,關(guān)乎整個(gè)武威市經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的持續(xù)發(fā)展,因而對武威市水資源的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行定量分析及未來水資源進(jìn)行評價(jià)預(yù)測意義深遠(yuǎn)。本文基于Rees提出的生態(tài)足跡理論,對2005-2014年武威市的水資源生態(tài)足跡、水資源生態(tài)承載力、水資源生態(tài)赤字、剪刀差和萬元GDP等指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了計(jì)算和分析,并運(yùn)用spss軟件中的相關(guān)分析法和通徑分析對影響武威市水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展的因素進(jìn)行分析,最后運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測模型對武威市未來6年各行業(yè)水資源進(jìn)行了預(yù)測分析,并提出了一些建議。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)2005-2014年間武威市人均水資源生態(tài)足跡變化出現(xiàn)了浮動(dòng),基本呈逐年遞減的趨勢,2008年出現(xiàn)最高值1.9694 hm2/人,2014年其值下降到1.511277 hm2/人,比2005年下降了18.14%。(2)2005-2014年間武威市人均水資源生態(tài)承載力整體上呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,2005年達(dá)到最大值0.482hm2/人,2009年處于最低值0.2444 hm2/人。(3)2005-2014年武威市一直處于人均水資源生態(tài)赤字狀態(tài),整體波動(dòng)較大。絕對值從2005年的1.3643 hm2/人上升到2008年的1.637hm2/人,2008年達(dá)到最高值,上升了19.99%。剪刀差分析表明,武威市水資源生態(tài)足跡和水資源生態(tài)承載力之間的變化差異逐漸增大,水資源生態(tài)赤字仍很嚴(yán)重。(4)2005-2014年武威市水資源萬元GDP生態(tài)足跡一直處于下降趨勢,從2005年的0.013019 hm2/人下降到了2014年的0.003723hm2/人,十年來下降了71.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),說明水資源利用率逐年提高。十年間的生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)均大于3,大體上呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,水資源處于不安全狀態(tài)。(5)2005-2014年間武威市農(nóng)業(yè)用水生態(tài)足跡在水資源生態(tài)足跡中所占比例呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,2008年其值達(dá)到最大值1.650791 hm2/人,2014年為最小值0.932335 hm2/人,比2008年下降了43.52%。工業(yè)水資源生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)用水生態(tài)足跡呈現(xiàn)不斷上升的趨勢。武威市生活用水量變化趨勢不明顯,2005-2014年基本保持在0.075644-0.085192hm2/人之間。2005-2014年武威市污水生態(tài)足跡增加趨勢也很明顯,從2005年的0.100531hm2增加到2014年的0.239hm2,是2005年的2倍多。(6)運(yùn)用spss軟件對影響武威市水資源的相關(guān)因素進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)合通徑分析對相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)了解,結(jié)果表明,農(nóng)業(yè)用水、生活用水和人口三個(gè)指標(biāo)對武威市水資源生態(tài)足跡總的影響相對較大,其他因素受農(nóng)業(yè)用水的影響也較大。(7)本文以武威市2005-2014年十年的水資源生態(tài)足跡值為基礎(chǔ),采用GM(2,1)灰色預(yù)測模型,對武威市未來6年的水資源總量及各行業(yè)水資源變化情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。結(jié)果表明,武威市未來6年的水資源需求量仍在增加,供需矛盾仍然很尖銳,必須調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),發(fā)展綠色農(nóng)業(yè),科學(xué)合理分配各行業(yè)用水,提高水資源利用率,興修水利工程,實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源的可持續(xù)利用。
[Abstract]:Water resources are not only a special substance on the earth, but also the material basis for people's life and production. The maintenance of the regional ecological environment and the sustainable development of the economy are all without water resources. Wuwei is located in the middle of the Hexi Corridor and the southern edge of the Jilin desert in the Basan. It is of great significance to the ecological security of the Hexi region. The fragile state has seriously affected the development of industry and agriculture and people's life and production. Agriculture is the basis of Wuwei's economic development, whether the rational distribution of water resources, the efficient utilization of the whole agricultural ecosystem and the stable and orderly development of the whole Wuwei City, and the sustainable development of the whole economic and social society of the city of Wuwei, therefore, make a quantitative analysis of the current situation of water resources in the city of Wuwei. In this paper, based on the theory of ecological footprint proposed by Rees, the ecological footprint of water resources, water resources ecological carrying capacity, water resources ecological deficit, scissors difference and 10000 yuan GDP are calculated and analyzed in the 2005-2014 year Wuwei City, and the correlation analysis and path in SPSS software are used. Analysis of the factors affecting the sustainable development of water resources in Wuwei City, the grey prediction model was used to forecast and analyze the water resources of various industries in Wuwei in the next 6 years, and some suggestions were put forward. The results showed that: (1) the change of the ecological footprint of water resources per capita in Wuwei was fluctuated in 2005-2014 years, and it was basically year by year. Declining trend, the highest value of 1.9694 hm2/ people in 2008, in 2014 its value dropped to 1.511277 hm2/ people, compared with 2005 down 18.14%. (2) 2005-2014 years, Wuwei city per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity on the overall decline trend, 2005 to the maximum value of 0.482hm2/ people, 2009 in the lowest value of 0.2444 hm2/ people. (3) 2005-2014 year Wuwei city. It has been in a state of water resource ecological deficit per capita, and the overall fluctuation is larger. The absolute value rose from 1.3643 hm2/ people in 2005 to 1.637hm2/ in 2008 and reached the highest value in 2008. The analysis of 19.99%. scissors difference showed that the difference between the ecological footprint of water resources and the ecological bearing capacity of water resources increased gradually, and the water resources were born. The state deficit is still very serious. (4) the ecological footprint of Wuwei water resources GDP in 2005-2014 years has been declining, from 0.013019 hm2/ people in 2005 to the 0.003723hm2/ people in 2014, the decline of 71.4 percentage points in ten years, indicating that the utilization rate of water resources has increased year by year. The ecological pressure index of the ten years is more than 3, on the whole show up. The water resources are in an insecure state. (5) the ecological footprint of agricultural water use in Wuwei in the past 2005-2014 years has a downward trend in the ecological footprint of water resources. In 2008, the value reached the maximum value of 1.650791 hm2/ people, the minimum value of 0.932335 hm2/ in 2014, and the ecological footprint of 43.52%. industrial water resources and ecological water consumption in 2008. The trend of ecological footprint is rising. The trend of the change of water consumption in Wuwei is not obvious. In the 2005-2014 year, the ecological footprint of Wuwei city in Wuwei is basically maintained, and the increase trend of the ecological footprint is also obvious, from 0.100531hm2 in 2005 to 0.239hm2 in 2014, which is more than 2 times in 2005. (6) the use of SPSS soft. The relevant factors affecting the water resources in Wuwei were analyzed, and the correlation was understood in detail with the path analysis. The results showed that the total impact of agricultural water, water and population on the ecological footprint of water resources in Wuwei was relatively large, and the other factors were greatly influenced by the agricultural water use. (7) this paper took Wuwei city 2005- 2005- Based on the ecological footprint value of water resources for ten years in 2014, the GM (2,1) grey prediction model is used to predict the total water resources and the changes of water resources in various industries in the next 6 years in Wuwei. The results show that the water resources demand in the next 6 years in Wuwei is still increasing, the contradiction between supply and demand is still sharp, and the industrial structure must be adjusted to develop green. In order to achieve sustainable utilization of water resources, we should scientifically and rationally allocate water for various industries, improve the utilization ratio of water resources, and build water conservancy projects.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TV213.4

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