本文選題：水利投資 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長��； 參考：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水利建設(shè)作為公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的一部分，水利投資對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和增加國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)有十分重要的作用，水利投資能夠?yàn)槠渌袠I(yè)的發(fā)展能夠提供基本的生產(chǎn)條件。水利建設(shè)發(fā)展對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有推動(dòng)作用，并且在一定程度上會(huì)制約國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，即水利的發(fā)展跟不上國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。因此，研究水利基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)作用，對于水利基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資方向的確定無疑具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。對于這些問題的研究，是提升陜西省水利建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)，改善水利建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀，實(shí)現(xiàn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)性工作。 本文根據(jù)陜西省1985-2011年的水利相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，通過建立水利投資與GDP的向量自回歸(VAR)模型，利用Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法對水利投資與GDP之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，并采用柯布道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，計(jì)算陜西省固定資產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的產(chǎn)出彈性，以此分析為基礎(chǔ)估算水利建設(shè)投資對促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和擴(kuò)大就業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)，根據(jù)以上分析結(jié)果給出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 通過研究表明：水利投資與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在雙向因果關(guān)系。GDP是水利投資的格蘭杰原因，水利投資是GDP的格蘭杰原因。也就是表明，水利投資對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有長期增長效應(yīng)，有力推動(dòng)了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。反過來，國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對水利投資也有明顯的拉動(dòng)作用。并且通過脈沖分析得出GDP對水利投資的一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的新息的響應(yīng)在前一期比較敏感，波動(dòng)比較大一直處于正向影響階段，并且逐步增加，，之后GDP對I的變化響應(yīng)程度逐漸減弱。水利投資對GDP的一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的新息的響應(yīng)在處于正向影響階段，在第二期之后逐漸增加，第四期后逐漸趨于平穩(wěn)波動(dòng)不大。與之前因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果一致，水利投資在較短的時(shí)期內(nèi)，對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用較長期更為明顯�？偟膩碚f水利投資對經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)還是有一定作用，說明隨著水利投資進(jìn)程的加快，GDP受到一定的推動(dòng)。從GDP方差分解的來分析，GDP對自身的貢獻(xiàn)剛開始最強(qiáng)，后期逐漸減弱，在第10期降為63.23%；水利投資對GDP的貢獻(xiàn)逐漸增強(qiáng)，在第10期達(dá)到36.77%；從水利投資方差分解結(jié)果來看，水利投資對自身的貢獻(xiàn)剛開始最強(qiáng)，后期逐漸減弱，在第10期降為87.75%；GDP對水利投資的貢獻(xiàn)逐漸增強(qiáng)，在第10期達(dá)到10.27%，表明隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，對我國水利投資的支持作用將不斷加強(qiáng)。在之前驗(yàn)證的基礎(chǔ)上采用柯布道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，估計(jì)陜西省固定資產(chǎn)投資對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的資本與勞動(dòng)的產(chǎn)出彈性，以此分析為基礎(chǔ)估算陜西省水利建設(shè)投資對促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和擴(kuò)大就業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)，并且發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著水利投資的增加對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)與就業(yè)的推動(dòng)有一定的作用，對陜西省國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)是逐漸增加的，對就業(yè)的拉動(dòng)先增加后來逐漸減少。
[Abstract]:Water conservancy construction is a part of national economy and social development as public infrastructure. Water conservancy investment plays an important role in the development of national economy and the increase of domestic production. Investment in water conservancy can provide basic production conditions for the development of other industries. The development of water conservancy construction can promote the growth of national economy, and to a certain extent will restrict the development of national economy, that is, the development of water conservancy can not keep up with the development of national economy. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the pulling effect of water conservancy infrastructure on the growth of national economy for the certainty of investment direction of water conservancy infrastructure. The research on these problems is the basic work to promote the foundation of water conservancy construction in Shaanxi Province, to improve the present situation of water conservancy construction and to realize the sustained, rapid and coordinated development of China's economy. Based on the data of water conservancy in Shaanxi Province from 1985 to 2011, this paper establishes the vector autoregressive model of water conservancy investment and GDP, and uses Granger causality test. The correlation between water conservancy investment and GDP is empirically analyzed by econometric methods such as impulse response and variance decomposition, and the output elasticity of fixed asset investment to economic growth in Shaanxi Province is calculated by using Cobb Douglas production function. Based on this analysis, the contribution of investment in water conservancy construction to promoting economic growth and expanding employment is estimated, and corresponding policy suggestions are given according to the above analysis results. The results show that the bidirectional causality between water conservancy investment and national economic growth is the Granger cause of water conservancy investment, and the water conservancy investment is the Granger reason of GDP. That is to say, water conservancy investment has long-term growth effect on national economic growth, and has promoted the development of national economy. Conversely, the national economy development also has the obvious pull effect to the water conservancy investment. The response of GDP to a standard deviation innovation of water conservancy investment is more sensitive in the previous period, and the fluctuation is always in the positive stage, which increases gradually, and then the response of GDP to I gradually weakens. The response of water conservancy investment to a standard deviation innovation of GDP is in the positive stage, increasing gradually after the second phase, and gradually becoming stable after the fourth phase. In accordance with the results of causality test before, the effect of water conservancy investment on economic growth is more obvious in a short period than in the long term. On the whole, the investment of water conservancy has a certain effect on the development of economy, which indicates that with the acceleration of the process of investment in water conservancy, GDP is promoted to a certain extent. From the analysis of GDP variance decomposition, the contribution of GDP to itself was first strongest, then gradually weakened, and then decreased to 63.230.The contribution of water conservancy investment to GDP increased gradually, and reached 36.77 in the 10th period. From the result of variance decomposition of water resources investment, The contribution of water conservancy investment to itself was at first the strongest, and gradually weakened in the latter period. In the tenth period, the contribution of GDP to water conservancy investment was gradually increased to 87.75, and in the 10th period it reached 10.27, indicating that with the development of the national economy, To our country water conservancy investment's support function will strengthen unceasingly. On the basis of previous verification, the production function of Cobb Douglas is used to estimate the output elasticity of fixed asset investment in Shaanxi Province to the capital and labor of economic growth. Based on this analysis, the contribution of investment in water conservancy construction in Shaanxi Province to promoting economic growth and expanding employment is estimated, and it is found that with the increase of investment in water conservancy, it plays a certain role in promoting the national economy and employment. The pull on the national economy of Shaanxi Province is gradually increased, the pull on employment first increased and then gradually decreased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.91;F127

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