南水北調(diào)東線小運(yùn)河段突發(fā)水污染事故模擬預(yù)測與應(yīng)急調(diào)控研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-23 14:43
本文選題:小運(yùn)河 + 突發(fā)水污染 ; 參考:《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文
【摘要】:我國是世界上遭受環(huán)境污染較嚴(yán)重的國家,特別是隨著工業(yè)化的發(fā)展,以及城鎮(zhèn)化和新農(nóng)村建設(shè)的推進(jìn),環(huán)境面臨的壓力不斷加大,新的環(huán)境保護(hù)問題層出不窮,突發(fā)性的環(huán)境事件發(fā)生的概率也相繼增加,近年來,全國水污染重大事故屢有發(fā)生,這些重大突發(fā)水污染事故都嚴(yán)重破壞了水域環(huán)境,特別是嚴(yán)重污染飲用水源,對于人民群眾的身體健康直接構(gòu)成威脅,同時(shí)也影響了社會(huì)安定。 為保證長距離輸水工程的水質(zhì)安全,本文以南水北調(diào)東線小運(yùn)河段輸水干渠為研究對象,對其進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源識(shí)別,確定該段輸水工程最可能發(fā)生的突發(fā)水污染事故,利用建立的水動(dòng)力模型和水質(zhì)模型,模擬分析多種典型突發(fā)水污染事故發(fā)生時(shí),污染物在輸水干渠中的輸移轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律,預(yù)測污染物對小運(yùn)河沿線水質(zhì)的影響時(shí)間,范圍及程度,確定典型突發(fā)水污染事故在污染物持續(xù)污染時(shí)間較長時(shí),污染物從突發(fā)水污染事故的發(fā)生位置到達(dá)某個(gè)分水口(或出口斷面)濃度正好為地表水環(huán)境質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Ⅲ類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的上限值的情況下,事故點(diǎn)污染物的污染量臨界值,并據(jù)此提出了相應(yīng)的調(diào)控思路,最后對典型突發(fā)水污染事故發(fā)生后,幾個(gè)調(diào)控方案進(jìn)行仿真模擬,比較分析各方案的調(diào)控效果。該研究結(jié)果可為南水北調(diào)東線山東段輸水干渠突發(fā)水污染事故情況下的水質(zhì)預(yù)測、預(yù)警、應(yīng)急調(diào)控提供重要參考。主要研究成果如下: (1)對南水北調(diào)東線小運(yùn)河段輸水工程進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,分析可能引發(fā)突發(fā)水污染事故的因素,判斷得到最可能發(fā)生的突發(fā)水污染事故是由跨河橋梁上的交通事故引起的污染物泄露進(jìn)入河道的事故。 (2)根據(jù)小運(yùn)河實(shí)際情況,選擇mike11軟件作為本文研究的主要工具,說明mike11水動(dòng)力(HD)模塊和對流擴(kuò)散(AD)模塊的原理及求解方法,為模擬預(yù)測提供了軟件基礎(chǔ)。 (3)建立水動(dòng)力模型,利用實(shí)測水情資料進(jìn)行率定,驗(yàn)證模型的可靠性,在此基礎(chǔ)上建立水質(zhì)模型(對流擴(kuò)散模型),并提出污染流量、水動(dòng)力時(shí)間、水質(zhì)時(shí)間和污染量臨界值等概念。 (4)設(shè)置四種水動(dòng)力工況,選取保守型和非保守型兩類污染物,對典型突發(fā)水污染事故進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測,分析討論污染物進(jìn)入河道后的輸移轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律,為制定應(yīng)急調(diào)控方案提供了依據(jù)。 (5)對突發(fā)水污染事故按事故嚴(yán)重性、出口斷面污染物濃度及污染持續(xù)時(shí)間等分成四級(jí),分別針對水源地突發(fā)水污染事故和河段內(nèi)突發(fā)水污染事故,提出了相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急調(diào)控思路。 (6)選取了三種典型突發(fā)水污染事故,對相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急調(diào)控措施進(jìn)行模擬分析,判斷比較調(diào)控效果,選取了最優(yōu)方案,保證輸水干線的水質(zhì)安全。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization and the development of urbanization and the construction of new countryside, the pressure on the environment is increasing, and new problems of environmental protection emerge endlessly in our country, especially with the development of industrialization and the promotion of new rural construction. The probability of sudden environmental incidents has also increased one after another. In recent years, major water pollution accidents have occurred frequently throughout the country. These major sudden water pollution accidents have seriously damaged the water environment, especially seriously polluted drinking water sources. It is a direct threat to the people's health and social stability. In order to ensure the water quality safety of the long distance water conveyance project, this paper takes the main canal of the east route of the South-to-North Water transfer Project as the research object, identifies its risk source, and determines the most likely sudden water pollution accident in the water conveyance project. By using the established hydrodynamic model and water quality model, this paper simulates and analyzes the transport and transformation law of pollutants in the main canal when several typical sudden water pollution accidents occur, and predicts the time, scope and degree of the influence of pollutants on the water quality along the small canal. Determining that a typical sudden water pollution accident has a long time of persistent pollution of pollutants, If the concentration of pollutants from the location of sudden water pollution accident to some outlet (or exit section) is exactly the upper limit of the class 鈪,
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