本文選題：超高海拔　切入點(diǎn)：水利水電工程　出處：《中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)(中國(guó)科學(xué)院工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：十八屆五中全會(huì)主題是供給側(cè)改革,能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整將繼續(xù)調(diào)整,水能資源需要進(jìn)一步有效開(kāi)發(fā),現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)理論可裝機(jī)容量的能源區(qū)域大部分集中在高海拔地區(qū),而在3500米至5500米之間的超高海拔地區(qū)未開(kāi)發(fā)的水能資源占比巨大,由于超高海拔區(qū)域的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)復(fù)雜性和獨(dú)特性,工程施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)陡然增高。本文結(jié)合工程實(shí)際,并進(jìn)行了實(shí)際工程數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)研,運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論,構(gòu)建適合超高海拔地區(qū)水利水電工程項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論體系。作者的主要研究成果如下:(1)參考大量實(shí)際工程,總結(jié)其施工環(huán)境特征即低溫、低壓和低氧;并參考大量科研資料,找出了影響超高海拔地區(qū)水電工程施工最大的勞動(dòng)力與機(jī)械效率的變化規(guī)律;通過(guò)專(zhuān)家判斷法、德?tīng)柗品ê蚖BS-RBS矩陣法,建立WBS-RBS矩陣,集合使用得出了影響施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的4個(gè)因素:環(huán)境因素、施工企業(yè)施工能力因素、合同簽訂和履行能力因素、其它因素;同時(shí)歸納出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素中最重要的16個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子,完整建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和估計(jì)的理論模型。(2)采用層次分析法和模糊評(píng)判法,計(jì)算過(guò)程利用Matlab軟件程序,建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型,并得出一般結(jié)論:超高海拔地區(qū)水利水電程項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度最高的是自身能力因素、較高的為環(huán)境因素、一般的為其它因素、較小的為合同簽訂和履行能力,而整體來(lái)說(shuō)超高海拔地區(qū)水利水電工程項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度等級(jí)為較高。(3)將實(shí)際工程青海玉樹(shù)當(dāng)卡水電站施工項(xiàng)目代入已建立的超高海拔地區(qū)水利水電工程項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系,最終將得出的結(jié)論和實(shí)際情況基本一致。(4)最終結(jié)合上述工程實(shí)例,作者針對(duì)16個(gè)因子給出了對(duì)應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處置措施。本文提出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系能搞較好滿足超高海拔地區(qū)水利水電工程項(xiàng)目施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,具有實(shí)用性,可供類(lèi)似工程參考。
[Abstract]:The theme of the Fifth Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee was supply-side reform, the adjustment of the energy structure will continue to be adjusted, and the hydropower resources need to be further effectively developed. At this stage, most of the energy regions with theoretical installed capacity in China are concentrated in high-altitude areas.However, the proportion of undeveloped hydropower resources in the ultra-high elevation area between 3500 and 5500 meters is huge. Because of the complexity and uniqueness of the risk in the ultra-high altitude area, the construction risk of the project increases sharply.This paper combines the engineering practice, and carries on the actual engineering data investigation, using the risk management theory, constructs the construction risk management theory system suitable for the water conservancy and hydropower project project in the ultra-high altitude area.The main research results of the author are as follows: (1) referring to a large number of practical projects, summarizing the characteristics of the construction environment, that is, low temperature, low pressure and low oxygen, and referring to a large amount of scientific research data,This paper finds out the change law of the greatest labor force and mechanical efficiency affecting the construction of hydropower projects in ultra-high altitude area, establishes the WBS-RBS matrix through expert judgment, Delphi method and WBS-RBS matrix method.Four factors influencing the construction risk assessment are obtained: environmental factor, construction ability factor, contract signing and performance ability factor, other factors, and the 16 most important risk factors.The theoretical model of risk identification and estimation is established. (2) the risk assessment model is established by using the Matlab software program and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation method.The general conclusion is that the highest degree of construction risk of water conservancy and hydropower project in the ultra-high altitude area is its own capacity factor, the higher one is the environmental factor, the general one is the other factor, and the smaller is the contract signing and carrying out ability.On the whole, the construction risk level of water conservancy and hydropower project in ultra-high altitude area is higher. 3) the actual construction project of Yushu Dangka Hydropower Station in Qinghai Province has been replaced with the water conservancy and hydropower project in the established ultra-high altitude area.Industrial risk assessment system,Finally, the conclusion will be basically consistent with the actual situation. 4) finally, combined with the above engineering examples, the author gives the corresponding risk treatment measures for 16 factors.The risk management system proposed in this paper can better meet the construction risk management of water conservancy and hydropower projects in ultra-high altitude areas. It is practical and can be used as a reference for similar projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)(中國(guó)科學(xué)院工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV51

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 丁加明,黃斐娜;施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的探討[J];鐵路工程造價(jià)管理;2001年06期

2 黃開(kāi)桓;;施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與應(yīng)對(duì)策略[J];建設(shè)科技;2006年10期

3 李華東;宋忠進(jìn);;重慶某隧道瓦斯工區(qū)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及應(yīng)對(duì)[J];西部探礦工程;2006年S1期

4 俞素平;;公路工程項(xiàng)目的施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素評(píng)估[J];福建建材;2008年01期

5 韓少飛;武t，

本文編號(hào)：1704799