本文選題：淤積規(guī)律　切入點(diǎn)：泥沙預(yù)報(bào)　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在多沙河流上修建水庫(kù),必然存在著泥沙淤積問題,水庫(kù)淤積對(duì)水庫(kù)本身庫(kù)容損失及其下游河道過流能力和生態(tài)環(huán)境等方面的影響不容忽視。遼河是一條多泥沙河流,該流域水資源總量較少且時(shí)空分布不均,特別是中下游地區(qū)社會(huì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,加劇了水庫(kù)防洪、排沙和水資源供給之間的矛盾。為滿足人民生活和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展對(duì)水資源新的訴求,迫切需要開展新的水庫(kù)調(diào)度方式及其相配套技術(shù)的研究,使得在提高水資源利用率的同時(shí),保證水庫(kù)上下游的防洪安全及其使用壽命。遼河流域年內(nèi)降雨主要集中在汛期,來水來沙也主要集中在汛期的1-2場(chǎng)洪水,如果不能充分利用有限的洪水資源進(jìn)行蓄水與排沙,那么防洪、排沙與興利蓄水之間的矛盾將更顯突出。針對(duì)這一問題,本文以遼河干流的石佛寺水庫(kù)和支流柳河的鬧德海水庫(kù)為背景,展開水庫(kù)水沙預(yù)報(bào)及水沙聯(lián)合調(diào)控技術(shù)研究,以提高洪水資源利用量。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容及成果如下： (1)遼河多沙水庫(kù)入庫(kù)沙量的預(yù)報(bào)研究。首先分析石佛寺水庫(kù)和鬧德海水庫(kù)的入庫(kù)水沙特性；其次采用相關(guān)分析法對(duì)石佛寺水庫(kù)入庫(kù)站的水沙規(guī)律進(jìn)行研究,建立石佛寺水庫(kù)入庫(kù)沙量預(yù)報(bào)的多元回歸方程,對(duì)入庫(kù)沙量進(jìn)行模擬,為指導(dǎo)水庫(kù)蓄水、排沙調(diào)度方案的研究提供依據(jù)；最后根據(jù)鬧德海水庫(kù)入庫(kù)水沙特性分析結(jié)果,確定影響入庫(kù)沙量的主要因素,建立了基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的鬧德海水庫(kù)入庫(kù)沙量預(yù)測(cè)模型,模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果較好,可以指導(dǎo)水庫(kù)實(shí)際調(diào)度。 (2)石佛寺水庫(kù)庫(kù)區(qū)水沙沖淤規(guī)律研究。首先利用趨勢(shì)分析法對(duì)庫(kù)區(qū)淤積的影響因子進(jìn)行定性的分析,確定影響庫(kù)區(qū)泥沙淤積的主要因素；然后根據(jù)石佛寺水庫(kù)多年的水沙資料,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法研究各影響因子對(duì)水庫(kù)泥沙淤積的貢獻(xiàn)率；最后以此為基礎(chǔ),研究建立基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的石佛寺水庫(kù)庫(kù)區(qū)泥沙淤積量預(yù)測(cè)模型,給出庫(kù)區(qū)水沙沖淤規(guī)律,為制定水庫(kù)水沙聯(lián)合調(diào)度方案提供參考。 (3)考慮泥沙淤積的石佛寺水庫(kù)調(diào)度規(guī)則研究。綜合考慮水庫(kù)防洪、排沙、供水和生態(tài)調(diào)度的要求,結(jié)合水庫(kù)正式蓄水運(yùn)用以來歷年的水庫(kù)調(diào)度方式和泥沙淤積情況,在石佛寺水庫(kù)庫(kù)區(qū)水沙沖淤規(guī)律和入庫(kù)沙量分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,研究制定考慮水庫(kù)泥沙淤積規(guī)律的調(diào)度方案,新的的調(diào)度方案能在保證防洪安全的前提下,考慮生態(tài)、排沙和供水的需求。該方案應(yīng)用于2013年的水庫(kù)實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度中,取得了滿意的綜合利用效果。因此,新的調(diào)度方案可以嘗試用于指導(dǎo)石佛寺水庫(kù)實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度。 最后,對(duì)取得的研究成果進(jìn)行總結(jié),提出尚需研究的內(nèi)容。
[Abstract]:To build a reservoir on a sandy river, there must be a problem of sediment deposition. The influence of reservoir siltation on reservoir capacity loss and downstream channel capacity and ecological environment should not be ignored. Liaohe River is a multi-sediment river. The total amount of water resources in this basin is small and the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven. Especially, the rapid development of society and economy in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has aggravated the flood control of reservoirs. In order to meet the new demand for water resources in people's life and economic and social development, it is urgent to carry out research on new reservoir operation mode and its matching technology, so as to improve the utilization rate of water resources. The flood control safety and service life of the upper and lower reaches of the reservoir are guaranteed. In the Liaohe River Basin, the rainfall is mainly concentrated in the flood season, and the coming water and sediment are mainly concentrated in 1-2 floods during the flood season. If the limited flood resources are not fully utilized for water storage and sediment discharge, So the contradiction between flood control, sand removal and Xingli water storage will become more prominent. In view of this problem, this paper takes Shifosi Reservoir of Liaohe River main stream and Naodehai Reservoir of Liuhe River as the background. In order to improve the utilization of flood resources, the research on reservoir water sediment prediction and combined regulation and control of water and sediment is carried out. The main contents and results are as follows:. First, the characteristics of water and sediment in Shifosi reservoir and Naodehai reservoir are analyzed, and then the correlation analysis method is used to study the regularity of water and sediment in Shifosi reservoir. The multivariate regression equation of sediment quantity prediction in Shifosi reservoir is established, and the sediment quantity is simulated to provide the basis for guiding the research of reservoir water storage and sediment discharge, and finally, according to the analysis results of water and sediment characteristics of Naodehai reservoir, Based on BP neural network, the prediction model of sediment quantity in Naodehai reservoir is established. The simulation result of the model is good, which can guide the actual operation of the reservoir. (2) study on the law of water and sediment scouring and silting in Shifosi reservoir area. Firstly, the influence factors of sediment accumulation in the reservoir area are qualitatively analyzed by using trend analysis method, and the main factors affecting sediment deposition in the reservoir area are determined, and then according to the water and sediment data of Shifosi reservoir for many years, In this paper, the contribution rate of influence factors to reservoir siltation is studied by means of grey correlation degree analysis. Finally, a prediction model of sediment deposition in Shifosi reservoir area based on BP neural network is established, and the rules of water and sediment scouring and silting in the reservoir area are given. It provides a reference for formulating the joint operation scheme of reservoir water and sediment. (3) study on regulation of Shifosi reservoir operation considering siltation. Considering comprehensively the requirements of reservoir flood control, sediment removal, water supply and ecological regulation, combined with the reservoir operation mode and silt deposition in the past years since the official storage and operation of the reservoir, On the basis of the law of water and sediment scouring and silting and the result of sediment quantity analysis in Shifosi reservoir area, this paper studies and formulates the regulation scheme of reservoir sediment deposition law. The new regulation scheme can consider ecology under the premise of ensuring flood control and safety. The application of this scheme to the reservoir real-time operation in 2013 has achieved a satisfactory comprehensive utilization effect. Therefore, the new scheme can be used to guide the real-time operation of Shifosi reservoir. Finally, the research results are summarized, and the contents that need to be studied are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV145

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