本文選題：量化和諧(?)　切入點：水資源　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文以蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)為研究對象,以水資源可持續(xù)利用評價理論體系為依據(jù),應(yīng)用PSR概念模式建立了基于“人水和諧”量化指標體系,選取綜合指數(shù)評價法對蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)2001—-2010年的和諧度進行分析計算和評價；利用量化和諧論對蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)2011-2016年水資源可持續(xù)利用和諧度進行了預(yù)測分析。結(jié)果表明： 1.在整個指標體系中,“人均水資源量”和“城鎮(zhèn)居民人均綜合生活用水量”的和諧度一直處于0.2以下,為很不和諧狀態(tài),表明“人均水資源量”和“城鎮(zhèn)居民人均綜合生活用水量”是影響區(qū)域水資源可持續(xù)利用的最大因素；“河流污染百分比”和諧度出現(xiàn)大幅度下降趨勢,從2001年的0.62下降到2010年的0.32,說明“河流污染百分比”是影響區(qū)域可持續(xù)水管理的不利因素。 2.水資源與社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)和諧度HS一直處于最高水平,和諧度數(shù)值在0.5以上且逐年上升,說明其對蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)水資源可持續(xù)利用的綜合和諧度WH有最大的促進作用。水資源與利用保障系統(tǒng)和諧度HU始終處于0.45以下,表明對區(qū)域水資源可持續(xù)利用有較大的制約作用。水資源與環(huán)境生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和諧度HE出現(xiàn)不穩(wěn)定的變化趨勢,在2002年和諧度處于較低水平為0.30,而在2006年上升到較大數(shù)值0.50,由此看出水資源與環(huán)境生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是影響區(qū)域可持續(xù)水管理的敏感層次和脆弱系統(tǒng)。 3.總體來看,蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)綜合和諧度WH在歷年中呈現(xiàn)整體緩慢上升趨勢,從2001年的0.36上升到2010年的0.52,而在2002年小幅度下降為0.34,整體為一般和諧狀態(tài)。這表明蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展較強的同時,能夠緩解區(qū)域水生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化的進程和降低區(qū)域水資源過度開發(fā)利用的力度,不斷提高水資源可持續(xù)利用率。 4.由預(yù)測分析可知,蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)水資源可持續(xù)利用和諧度HD在未來總體上處于較不和諧狀態(tài),但是區(qū)域水資源利用矛盾并非十分劇烈,即水資源供需矛盾可以通過有效調(diào)節(jié)得到解決。從變化趨勢來看,2013年到2014年蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)和諧度大幅度下降,表明未來進駐園區(qū)正式投產(chǎn)的工業(yè)項目數(shù)量不斷增加,生活用水和生產(chǎn)用水量急劇增加,而園區(qū)可供水量不能滿足用水量。 5.從2014年以后和諧度一直趨于較低水平,均處于0.5以下,這說明蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)生活生產(chǎn)用水量與可供水量之間矛盾日益增大。因此有效提高用水效率、工業(yè)用水重復(fù)使用率和再生水回用率,同時對蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)進行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整是實現(xiàn)蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)水資源可持續(xù)利用的關(guān)鍵,也是今后蘇里格經(jīng)濟開發(fā)區(qū)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟又好又快發(fā)展和實現(xiàn)水資源可持續(xù)利用的重要保障。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Sulige Economic Development Zone as the research object, takes the water resources sustainable utilization evaluation theory system as the basis, applies the PSR concept pattern to establish the quantitative index system based on the "human water harmony". The comprehensive index evaluation method is selected to analyze and evaluate the harmony degree of Sulige Economic Development Zone from 2001 to 2010, and the sustainable utilization harmony degree of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone from 2011 to 2016 is predicted and analyzed by using the quantitative Harmony Theory. The results show that:. 1. In the whole indicator system, the harmony degree of "per capita water resources" and "urban residents' per capita comprehensive domestic water consumption" has been below 0.2, which is a very disharmonious state. The results show that "per capita water resources" and "urban residents' per capita comprehensive domestic water consumption" are the most important factors affecting the sustainable utilization of regional water resources, and the harmonious degree of "river pollution percentage" has a downward trend. The decrease from 0.62 in 2001 to 0.32 in 2010 shows that the "percentage of river pollution" is the unfavorable factor affecting regional sustainable water management. 2. The HS of water resources and socio-economic system has always been at the highest level, and the degree of harmony is more than 0.5 and increases year by year. It shows that the comprehensive harmony degree WH of Sulige economic development zone has the greatest promotion effect. The harmony degree of water resources and utilization guarantee system Hu is always below 0.45. The results show that there is a great restriction on the sustainable utilization of regional water resources, and the degree of harmony between water resources and environmental ecosystems is unstable. In 2002, the degree of harmony was at a low level of 0.30, but in 2006 it rose to a larger value of 0.50, which shows that water resources and environmental ecosystems are sensitive and fragile systems affecting regional sustainable water management. 3. Overall, the overall degree of harmony WH of Sulige Economic Development Zone has shown a slow upward trend in the past years. It rose from 0.36 in 2001 to 0.52 in 2010, and decreased to 0.34 in 2002, which indicates that Sulige Economic Development Zone has a strong economic development at the same time. It can alleviate the process of regional water ecological environment deterioration and reduce the intensity of over-exploitation and utilization of regional water resources, and continuously improve the sustainable utilization rate of water resources. 4. From the forecast and analysis, we can see that the harmonious degree of sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone is generally in a disharmonious state in the future, but the contradiction of regional water resources utilization is not very intense. That is, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources can be solved through effective adjustment. From the trend of change, the harmony degree of Sulige Economic Development Zone declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, indicating that the number of industrial projects formally put into production in the park will continue to increase in the future. Domestic water and production water consumption increased sharply, but the available water supply in the park could not meet the water consumption. 5. Since 2014, the degree of harmony has tended to be lower, all below 0.5, which indicates that the contradiction between water consumption and available water supply in Sulige Economic Development Zone is increasing day by day. Therefore, the efficiency of water use is improved effectively. The reuse rate of industrial water and the reuse rate of reclaimed water, and the adjustment of the industrial structure of Sulige Economic Development Zone are the key to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone. It is also an important guarantee for the development and sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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