發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-02 05:09

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 洪水預(yù)報(bào) 24h降水預(yù)報(bào) 預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度 調(diào)度規(guī)則 洪水資源化　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：降水量的時(shí)空分布不均決定了水資源分布不均。我國北方降水集中于汛期,汛后降水稀少,導(dǎo)致北方水資源供需矛盾十分突出�，F(xiàn)行的水庫洪水實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度中,通常受設(shè)計(jì)的汛限水位約束,采用設(shè)計(jì)的常規(guī)調(diào)度方式及其規(guī)則,以實(shí)時(shí)入庫流量和庫水位作為識(shí)別洪水量級和控制泄量的依據(jù),導(dǎo)致許多北方水庫汛期棄水過多,汛后又無足夠來水使水庫蓄至興利蓄水位,洪水資源浪費(fèi)十分可惜。后汛期作為從汛期到非汛期過渡階段,其洪水運(yùn)用方式不僅關(guān)系到該階段的防洪與興利效益,而且關(guān)系到汛后水庫的正常運(yùn)行,進(jìn)而影響水庫全年的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。研究后汛期水庫的防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度方式,對于提高水庫該時(shí)期乃至汛后的洪水資源利用率,更好的發(fā)揮其綜合效益具有十分重要的意義。目前,洪水預(yù)報(bào)信息和短期降水預(yù)報(bào)信息精度已經(jīng)達(dá)到可以用于指導(dǎo)水庫實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)度的水平�；诜篮轭A(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度理論與方法,根據(jù)我國北方地區(qū)分期洪水特點(diǎn),本文通過考慮洪水預(yù)報(bào)信息和未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息,研究桓仁水庫后汛二期(該水庫汛期最后一個(gè)階段)的防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度方式,以期在不降低水庫原設(shè)計(jì)防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下,提高水庫的發(fā)電效益,實(shí)現(xiàn)水庫后汛二期洪水資源和水能資源的安全高效利用。具體研究內(nèi)容與成果如下： (1)本文產(chǎn)流預(yù)報(bào)方案采用降雨徑流相關(guān)圖,匯流預(yù)報(bào)方案采用單位線法,對1966～2010年后汛二期20場洪水進(jìn)行了預(yù)報(bào)并對洪水預(yù)報(bào)精度和預(yù)報(bào)誤差分布情況進(jìn)行了分析。采用確定性系數(shù)和RB(相對誤差)對洪水的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了評價(jià),依據(jù)《水文情報(bào)預(yù)報(bào)規(guī)范》(GB/T22482-2008)對預(yù)報(bào)水平進(jìn)行了評定。洪水預(yù)報(bào)精度為甲級,同時(shí)分析結(jié)果表明,洪水預(yù)報(bào)誤差不會(huì)導(dǎo)致水庫越級泄流。這為水庫利用洪水預(yù)報(bào)信息制定防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則提供了前提條件。 (2)以桓仁水庫以上流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū)域,根據(jù)氣象部門制定的降雨量級分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及預(yù)報(bào)精度分析方法,對1999～2010年后汛二期未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息以及實(shí)測日降水量資料進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì),分析了未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息的精度和不同預(yù)報(bào)量級情況下實(shí)測日降水量頻率分布情況。分析結(jié)果表明,該時(shí)期未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息具有較高的精度,為水庫后汛二期利用未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息制定防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則提供了依據(jù)。 (3)在前文對洪水預(yù)報(bào)信息和未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息可利用性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對預(yù)報(bào)信息出現(xiàn)誤報(bào)時(shí)水庫的防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及蓄水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析。根據(jù)桓仁流域后汛二期水文氣象特征,研究利用洪水預(yù)報(bào)信息和未來24h降水預(yù)報(bào)信息制定相應(yīng)的防洪預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度規(guī)則(洪水運(yùn)用方法),通過設(shè)計(jì)洪水和實(shí)際洪水對規(guī)則進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明,所制定的調(diào)度規(guī)則與原設(shè)計(jì)相比,前者在不降低水庫防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前提下,發(fā)電量增加,棄水量減少,可以實(shí)現(xiàn)水能資源和洪水資源的高效利用。 最后對全文進(jìn)行總結(jié),并對有待進(jìn)一步研究的問題進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation was not all of the uneven distribution of water resources. The precipitation in China is concentrated in the flood season, flood season precipitation, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the north is very prominent. Reservoir real time flood dispatching in the flood control level are usually subject to design constraints, using conventional scheduling methods and design rules in real time the runoff and water level as recognition of flood magnitude and discharge control basis, leading to excessive many northern abandoned water reservoir in flood season, flood and water storage reservoir to make sufficient Hennessy water level and flood resources waste is a pity. After the flood season from the flood season to non flood season as a transitional stage, the use of not only the flood to the stage of flood control and benefits, but also related to the normal operation of the reservoir after flood, thereby affecting the annual economic benefits. The research of reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching party after the flood, for Improve the utilization of flood resources in the reservoir during and after flood season, better play to the comprehensive benefit is very important. At present, flood forecast information and short-term precipitation forecast information accuracy has been achieved can be used for real-time scheduling reservoir level. Based on the theory and method of flood forecasting and dispatching, according to the North China stage flood characteristics. By considering the information of flood forecast and precipitation forecast of future 24h information, after two period of Huanren reservoir flood (the flood last stage) the flood forecasting and dispatching mode, in order to reduce not the original design standard of flood control reservoir, improve the generation efficiency of the reservoir, to achieve efficient use of reservoir after Flood flood period two resources and water resources safety. The specific research contents and results are as follows:
(1) the runoff forecasting scheme using rainfall runoff correlation map, confluence forecasting scheme by unit line method, for 1966~2010 years after the flood of two 20 flood forecast and flood forecast accuracy and prediction error distribution is analyzed. The uncertainty coefficients and RB (relative error) of flood forecasting results the basis of hydrological forecast evaluation, < > specification (GB/T22482-2008) to forecast the level was evaluated. The precision of flood forecast for a while, the analysis results show that the flood forecast error does not result in reservoir discharge. The leapfrog reservoir flood forecast information provides the precondition of making flood forecasting and dispatching rules.
(2) in the Huanren reservoir basin as the research area, according to rainfall classification standard meteorological departments to develop and forecast accuracy analysis method, 1999~2010 years after the flood of two future 24h precipitation forecast information and measured daily precipitation data by statistical analysis of future 24h precipitation forecast precision and forecast magnitude under different the measured frequency distribution of daily precipitation. Analysis results show that the period of future 24h precipitation forecast information has high precision for Flood Reservoir after two period by future 24h precipitation forecast information to develop flood forecasting and dispatching rule provides the basis.
(3) in the preamble to the flood forecast information and the future of 24h precipitation forecast information available based on the analysis of the forecast information, false positives when the reservoir water storage and flood risk risk are analyzed. According to the characteristics of Huanren basin flood hydrology and meteorology two, using flood forecast and precipitation forecast information for future 24h information set flood forecasting and dispatching rules (corresponding flood, by using the method of design flood) and the actual flood of rules were tested. The results show that the scheduling rule is compared with the original design, the former in the premise of reducing flood control standards, power generation increased, waste water decreased, can realize the efficient utilization of water resources and flood resources.
Finally, the full text is summarized, and the problems to be further studied are prospected.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.13;P338

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