本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水資源定價機制 農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟 水資源供需變化 CGE模型 政策分析　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國分散化的水資源管理體系形成了水資源的平行定價機制(簡稱“傳統(tǒng)機制”),體現(xiàn)在農(nóng)業(yè)部門的灌溉水價與非農(nóng)部門的管道水價為平行定價,由于灌溉水價中包含有灌溉補貼,使灌溉水價與管道水價出現(xiàn)了顯著的價格扭曲,從而導(dǎo)致水資源在農(nóng)業(yè)部門和非農(nóng)部門之間的低效率分配。面臨著水資源需求增加和供應(yīng)減少的雙重壓力,中國已經(jīng)啟動水資源統(tǒng)一定價機制的改革。本研究立足于農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟,運用CGE模型在水資源供需變動的模擬情景中對不同的水資源定價機制進行評估,旨在解決當(dāng)前的水資源配置問題并為推進水資源定價機制改革提供政策依據(jù),主要的研究成果和創(chuàng)新點如下：首先,基于不同定價機制的特征構(gòu)建了三個社會核算矩陣(SAM):SAM-WPP、 SAM-WP和SAM-16R。相對前人研究的主要創(chuàng)新是：在SAM-WPP和SAM-WP中細分出了10個種植業(yè)部門的灌溉水及其灌溉補貼,并在SAM-16R中將灌溉水及其灌溉補貼分別擴展為16地區(qū)。以這三個SAM為數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)構(gòu)建了四個CGE模型：引入傳統(tǒng)機制的CGE-WPP、引入當(dāng)前機制(即當(dāng)前改革的統(tǒng)一定價機制)的CGE-WP_A、引入新機制(即進一步改革的統(tǒng)一定價機制)的CGE-WP_B,以及基于傳統(tǒng)機制和區(qū)域性水資源模塊的CGE-16R。CGE-WPP、CGE-WP_A和CGE-WP_B是宏觀模型。主要擴展是在10個種植業(yè)部門生產(chǎn)函數(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)中引入灌溉水投入及其灌溉補貼；在非種植農(nóng)業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、工業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)等24個部門生產(chǎn)函數(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)中引入富有價格彈性的水資源投入。在CGE-WPP的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建CGE-16R,是將這10個種植業(yè)部門生產(chǎn)函數(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)中的灌溉水投入及其灌溉補貼均擴展為16地區(qū),同時將農(nóng)村居民管道水消費也擴展為16地區(qū)。其次,應(yīng)用這四個CGE模型,水資源供需變化的模擬論證了新機制對于農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟是最優(yōu)的政策選擇：水資源需求增加的情景下,新機制將為農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)配置更多的水,從而使農(nóng)業(yè)部門的本地商品供給有所增加；水資源供應(yīng)減少的情景下,新機制使農(nóng)村居民的收入增長最高同時消費下降最少。傳統(tǒng)機制下的區(qū)域性水資源供應(yīng)不足使種植業(yè)減產(chǎn)主要在北方地區(qū),但遭受消費減少尤其是食品消費減少的農(nóng)村居民在南北方均有分布。政策建議是：取消灌溉水價中的灌溉補貼,將灌溉補貼轉(zhuǎn)移到農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格中由消費者負擔(dān)從而減輕農(nóng)民生產(chǎn)負擔(dān)；在水資源需求增加的背景下,改革的短期內(nèi)要考慮農(nóng)村居民收入和消費增長受限問題給予一定的補貼；在水資源供應(yīng)不足的背景下,為降低農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)減少的負面影響,應(yīng)增加農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進口,加快推廣節(jié)水灌溉技術(shù)和節(jié)水作物種植。
[Abstract]:China's decentralized water resources management system has formed a parallel pricing mechanism for water resources (referred to as "the traditional mechanism" for short), which is reflected in the parallel pricing of irrigation water prices in the agricultural sector and pipeline water prices in the non-agricultural sector. Because irrigation subsidies are included in irrigation water prices, there is a significant price distortion between irrigation water prices and pipeline water prices. This has led to inefficient allocation of water resources between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Faced with the double pressures of increasing demand for water resources and decreasing supply, China has initiated a reform of the unified pricing mechanism for water resources. This study is based on the agricultural economy. In order to solve the problem of water resources allocation and to provide policy basis for the reform of water resources pricing mechanism, CGE model is used to evaluate different water resources pricing mechanisms in the simulated scenarios of water resources supply and demand change. The main research results and innovations are as follows: first of all, Based on the characteristics of different pricing mechanisms, three social accounting matrices, SAM: SAM-WPP, SAM-WP and SAM-16R. the main innovations compared with previous studies are as follows: the irrigation water and irrigation subsidies in 10 planting sectors were subdivided in SAM-WPP and SAM-WP. In SAM-16R, irrigation water and irrigation subsidy are extended to 16 regions respectively. Based on these three SAM, four CGE models are constructed: CGE-WPPbased on traditional mechanism and current mechanism (that is, unified pricing mechanism of current reform). The CGE-WPPBs of the new mechanism (that is, the unified pricing mechanism for further reform), and the CGE-16R.CGE-WPPN CGE-WPPPA and CGE-WP_B based on the traditional mechanism and the regional water resources module are macro models. The main extension is the production function structure in 10 planting sectors. Introduction of irrigation water input and irrigation subsidy; In non-farming, construction, Water resources input with price elasticity is introduced into the production function structure of 24 departments, such as industry and service industry. CGE-16R is constructed on the basis of CGE-WPP, which is the irrigation water input and its irrigation supplement in the production function structure of these 10 farming sectors. The patch was extended to 16 areas, At the same time, the pipeline water consumption of rural residents is also extended to 16 regions. Secondly, using the four CGE models, the simulation of the change of water supply and demand proves that the new mechanism is the best policy choice for agricultural economy: under the situation of increasing demand for water resources, The new mechanism will allocate more water to agricultural production, thereby increasing the supply of local commodities in the agricultural sector; in the case of reduced water supply, The new mechanism makes the income of rural residents grow the highest and the consumption decrease the least. The shortage of regional water resources under the traditional mechanism results in the reduction of crop production mainly in the northern region. But rural residents who suffer from reduced consumption, especially food consumption, are spread across the North and South. The policy advice is to eliminate irrigation subsidies in irrigation water prices. Under the background of increasing demand for water resources, limited income and consumption growth of rural residents should be considered in the short term. Under the background of insufficient water supply, in order to reduce the negative effect of the decrease of agricultural product supply, we should increase the import of agricultural products, speed up the popularization of water-saving irrigation technology and plant water-saving crops.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TV213.4

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