本文關(guān)鍵詞： 江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量 主成分分析 向量自回歸模型 脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析　出處：《揚(yáng)州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：江蘇省是我國(guó)的用水大省、農(nóng)業(yè)大省,提高綜合用水效率對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著重要的意義。本文通過(guò)對(duì)文獻(xiàn)的廣泛閱讀,在充分汲取專(zhuān)家意見(jiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合江蘇省農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)和生活的用水現(xiàn)狀,構(gòu)建以萬(wàn)元GDP用水量為研究目標(biāo)的江蘇省綜合用水效率指標(biāo)體系,在對(duì)數(shù)學(xué)模型理解的基礎(chǔ)上,采用多種方法進(jìn)行江蘇省用水效率影響因素的辨識(shí),為效率紅線的動(dòng)態(tài)化管理提供基礎(chǔ)研究,為實(shí)行最嚴(yán)格水資源管理制度提供技術(shù)支撐,為江蘇省水資源調(diào)控提供理論依據(jù)。 本著宏觀原則,本文分別從人口、資源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技、管理五個(gè)方面對(duì)影響江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量的因素進(jìn)行了辨識(shí),選取了總?cè)丝�、人均水資源量等23個(gè)指標(biāo)來(lái)構(gòu)建影響因素指標(biāo)體系。通過(guò)對(duì)指標(biāo)特性和統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技、管理因素屬于政府可調(diào)控因素,文章選用多元回歸分析找尋因素與萬(wàn)元GDP用水量之間的響應(yīng)關(guān)系,收集整理了1997～2012年江蘇省人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技和管理四個(gè)方面的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),考慮到指標(biāo)因素之間具有較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性,采用主成分分析(PCA)對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行處理,消除共線性的干擾,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立多元線性回歸方程,對(duì)影響江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量的重要因素進(jìn)行辨識(shí),結(jié)果顯示,人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、科技、管理因素均對(duì)其有較大的影響,其中城鎮(zhèn)化率(UZ)、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP比重(PG)、節(jié)水灌溉面積(SI)、水價(jià)(TF)影響較顯著。 另一方面,資源因素諸如年均氣溫等,屬于無(wú)法人為改變的因素。在分析方法上,回歸系數(shù)解釋為通過(guò)改變自變量來(lái)觀察因變量隨之改變的強(qiáng)烈程度,資源因素?zé)o法人為改變,表明了不能采用線性回歸模型通過(guò)改變自變量的方式來(lái)對(duì)資源因素進(jìn)行分析,但氣候條件對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)灌溉水利用效率的影響是不可忽略的。通過(guò)對(duì)氣象氣候資料的分析,江蘇省近年來(lái)資源因素變化幅度較小,總體呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定性。針對(duì)這種情況,本文引入了基于向量自回歸模型(VAR)的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),對(duì)資源因素與目標(biāo)變量江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。本文對(duì)1997～2012年資源因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行相關(guān)分析,消除指標(biāo)間的線性干擾,并與江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量進(jìn)行混合,建立向量自回歸模型。在此基礎(chǔ)上通過(guò)脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)對(duì)資源因素進(jìn)行深入分析。結(jié)果顯示,資源因素對(duì)江蘇省萬(wàn)元GDP用水量有較大的影響,其中人均水資源量(WP)影響最為顯著。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province is a big water using province and a big agricultural province in our country. It is of great significance to improve the efficiency of comprehensive water use to realize the sustainable development of Jiangsu's economy. Combined with the current situation of agricultural, industrial and domestic water use in Jiangsu Province, a comprehensive water use efficiency index system of Jiangsu Province, which aims at 10 thousand yuan GDP water consumption, is constructed, and based on the understanding of mathematical model, the index system of comprehensive water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is established. The identification of influencing factors of water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province by various methods provides basic research for dynamic management of efficiency red line, technical support for implementing the strictest water resources management system, and theoretical basis for water resources regulation and control in Jiangsu Province. Based on the macro principle, this paper identifies the factors that affect the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province from the five aspects of population, resources, economy, science and technology, and selects the total population. Through the analysis of the index characteristics and statistical laws, it is found that the population, economy, science and technology, and management factors belong to the government- controllable factors. This paper selects multiple regression analysis to find out the response relationship between the factors and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP, and collects and collates the index data of population, economy, science and technology and management in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2012. Taking into account the strong correlation between the factors, the principal component analysis (PCAA) is used to deal with the index to eliminate the co-linear interference, and on the basis of this, the multivariate linear regression equation is established. The important factors that affect the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province are identified. The results show that population, economy, science and technology, and management have great influence on it. Among them, the urbanization rate is very high, the primary industry's output value accounts for the proportion of GDP, the water-saving irrigation area and the water price are significantly affected. On the other hand, resource factors, such as average annual temperature, are factors that cannot be changed artificially. In analytical methods, regression coefficients are interpreted as observing the intensity of dependent variables by changing independent variables. The resource factors can not be changed artificially, which indicates that the linear regression model can not be used to analyze the resource factors by changing the independent variables. However, the effect of climatic conditions on the utilization efficiency of agricultural irrigation water can not be ignored. Through the analysis of meteorological and climatic data, the variation of resource factors in Jiangsu Province in recent years is relatively small and the overall situation is stable. In this paper, the impulse response function based on vector autoregressive model (VAR) is introduced to study the relationship between resource factors and target variable GDP water consumption of ten thousand yuan in Jiangsu Province. The correlation analysis of resource factor indexes from 1997 to 2012 is carried out in this paper. The vector autoregressive model is established by eliminating the linear interference between the indexes and mixing with the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu Province. On the basis of this, the resource factors are deeply analyzed by impulse response function. The results show that, The resource factor has great influence on the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province, among which the per capita water resource quantity is the most significant.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4

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