本文關鍵詞： 用水量 脫鉤彈性分析方法 驅動力分解 淮河流域　出處：《資源開發(fā)與市場》2017年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：利用脫鉤彈性分析方法評價淮河流域內(nèi)河南、安徽、江蘇和山東各區(qū)域用水量和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的脫鉤狀態(tài),分析各省的脫鉤發(fā)展趨勢,對比總體脫鉤狀況。同時,利用完全分解模型把用水量驅動力分解為人口效應、經(jīng)濟規(guī)模效應和技術效應,分析三大效應對用水量的具體影響。結果表明:淮河流域內(nèi)各區(qū)域具有不穩(wěn)定且狀況較差的脫鉤—弱脫鉤—強脫鉤的變化過程,脫鉤狀態(tài)隨時間發(fā)展逐漸改善;各區(qū)域總體脫鉤狀況存在差異性:山東江蘇河南安徽;同時,三大效應的貢獻率大小為:經(jīng)濟規(guī)模效應技術效應人口效應,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素主要增加用水量,技術因素抑制用水量。因此,應把握好經(jīng)濟規(guī)模效應和技術效應,努力改善經(jīng)濟發(fā)展結構,提高技術效應強度,以達到強脫鉤的理性狀態(tài)。
[Abstract]:The decoupling state of water consumption and economic development in Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong provinces in Huaihe River Basin was evaluated by using decoupling elastic analysis method, the development trend of decoupling was analyzed, and the overall decoupling status was compared. Using the complete decomposition model, the driving force of water consumption is decomposed into population effect, economic scale effect and technical effect. The three effects on water consumption are analyzed. The results show that the process of decoupling, weak decoupling and strong decoupling in Huaihe River basin is unstable and poor, and the decoupling state improves gradually with the development of time. There are differences in the overall decoupling situation among different regions: Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, and the contribution rates of the three effects are as follows: economic scale effects, technical effects, population effects, and economic development factors mainly increase water consumption. Therefore, we should grasp the effect of economic scale and technology, improve the structure of economic development and enhance the intensity of technical effect so as to achieve a rational state of strong decoupling.
【作者單位】： 南京林業(yè)大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然基金青年項目“基于奈特不確定性理論的流域水資源脆弱性分析與適應性治理研究”(編號:71403122) 江蘇省自然基金青年項目“流域水資源關鍵脆弱性分析與適應性治理研究(編號:BK20140980) 教育部人文社科基金青年項目“基于影響因素風險預測的流域水資源脆弱性分析與適應性治理研究(編號:14YJC630018)
【分類號】：F127;TV213.4
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本文編號：1533826