本文關鍵詞： 呼圖壁河流域 水資源 供需平衡 多目標優(yōu)化配置　出處：《新疆大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：呼圖壁河流域位于東天山北麓中段，，準噶爾盆地南緣，烏昌地區(qū)昌吉州呼圖壁縣中部，屬于典型的干旱內陸區(qū)，相對于天山北坡東部其他河流，呼圖壁河流域水量較豐沛，但由于水資源分布與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不相匹配及季節(jié)分布不均勻，造成水資源不能充分利用，洪、旱災害頻發(fā)，制約了流域優(yōu)勢的正常發(fā)揮和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。 本文通過查閱呼圖壁縣年鑒、水資源公報及國內外文獻，搜集了呼圖壁河流域近20年的水資源利用、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展及社會發(fā)展資料，在此基礎上，分析了水資源開發(fā)利用現(xiàn)狀，運用指標法、趨勢分析法等預測2020年、2030年各用水戶需水量，同時預測流域供水量，根據(jù)供水量和需水量預測結果，進行供需平衡分析，在此結果上，建立了多目標優(yōu)化配置模型，得到六種不同的配置方案。本研究主要得出以下結論：（1）各水平年供需水量預測結果。 根據(jù)預測，得出2020年可供水量為7.462×108m3，2030年可供水量為7.462×108m3；2020年、2030年在強化節(jié)水條件下生活需水量分別為0.079×108m3、0.09×108m3，農業(yè)需水量為6.23×108m3、6.88×108m3，工業(yè)需水量為0.205×108m3、0.218×108m3，第三產業(yè)需水量為0.037×108m3、0.036×108m3，生態(tài)環(huán)境需水量為0.054×108m3、0.117×108m。（2）供需平衡分析 呼圖壁河流域現(xiàn)狀年供水量可以滿足當前經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展，這主要是因為大量開采地下水；2020年，在考慮節(jié)水措施及保護水資源情況下，水資源供需基本保持平衡；2030年，隨著經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展，水資源已不足以支撐其發(fā)展，只有快速引進新的高新技術、節(jié)水設施才能夠扭轉這一嚴峻態(tài)勢。（3）建立多目標規(guī)劃模型，模型配置結果分析與修正。 多目標優(yōu)化配置模型得出六種不同的配置方案，第一種結果是綜合用水效益最大，剩下五種方案分別是生活用水效益最大、生態(tài)環(huán)境效益最大、工業(yè)用水效益最大、第三產業(yè)用水效益最大和農業(yè)用水效益最大。本文認為生態(tài)環(huán)境效益最大方案更科學的配置了呼圖壁河流域水資源。
[Abstract]:The Hutubi River Basin is located in the middle section of the northern foot of the East Tianshan Mountains, the southern margin of the Junggar Basin, and the central part of the Hutubi County of Changjizhou in the Wuchang area, which is a typical arid inland area. Compared with other rivers in the eastern part of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the Hutubi River basin has a relatively abundant amount of water. However, the distribution of water resources does not match with the economic development and the seasonal distribution is not even, which results in the insufficient utilization of water resources and the frequent occurrence of flood and drought disasters, which restricts the normal exertion of the advantages and economic development of the river basin. By consulting the yearbook of Hutubi County, the Bulletin of Water Resources and the literature at home and abroad, this paper collects the data of water resources utilization, economic development and social development in the Hutubi River basin in the past 20 years. On this basis, the present situation of water resources exploitation and utilization is analyzed. Using index method and trend analysis method to forecast the water demand of each household in 2020 and 2030, at the same time to forecast the water supply of the watershed, according to the forecast result of water supply and water demand, the balance of supply and demand is analyzed. A multi-objective optimal allocation model is established and six different allocation schemes are obtained. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1) the annual water supply and demand forecasting results of each level. According to projections, The results show that the available water supply is 7.462 脳 108m3in 2020, 7.462 脳 108m3in 2030, 0.079 脳 108m30.09 脳 108m3in 2020 and 2020, 6.23 脳 108m30.88 脳 108m3in agriculture, 0.205 脳 108m3n3m30.218 脳 108m3in industrial, 0.037 脳 108m30.036 脳 108m3in tertiary industry, 0.054 脳 108m3n30.117 脳 108m3m3in ecological environment. The current annual supply of water in the Hutubi River basin can meet the current economic and social development, mainly due to the massive exploitation of groundwater; in 2020, the supply and demand of water resources remained basically balanced in consideration of water-saving measures and protection of water resources; and in 2030, With the rapid development of economy, water resources are not enough to support its development. Only by introducing new high and new technology quickly, can water saving facilities reverse this grim situation. (3) the multi-objective programming model is established, and the results of model configuration are analyzed and revised. Six different allocation schemes are obtained from the multi-objective optimal allocation model. The first result is that the efficiency of comprehensive water use is the greatest, the remaining five schemes are the largest benefit of domestic water use, the greatest benefit of ecological environment and the greatest benefit of industrial water use. The tertiary industry has the greatest benefit of water use and the biggest benefit of agricultural water use. This paper considers that the biggest scheme of ecological and environmental benefits is more scientific allocation of water resources in the Hutubi River basin.
【學位授予單位】：新疆大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213

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