本文關(guān)鍵詞： 氣象要素 港口規(guī)劃 統(tǒng)計(jì)分析 最大熵分布 Copula　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：氣象條件是影響港口工程建設(shè)與營(yíng)運(yùn)的主要因素。無論風(fēng)、降水，還是霧，都對(duì)港口工程建設(shè)、港口規(guī)劃、港口營(yíng)運(yùn)等產(chǎn)生極大的影響。收集港口所在地的氣象觀測(cè)資料，研究其發(fā)生與成災(zāi)的特點(diǎn)，準(zhǔn)確做好統(tǒng)計(jì)分析工作，客觀地推算不同氣象要素的統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)，對(duì)加強(qiáng)港口營(yíng)運(yùn)水平，，提高港口通過能力有著非常重要的意義。現(xiàn)有的氣象指標(biāo)計(jì)算方法基本是單變量的，有時(shí)不能反映各種要素之間的相互影響。因此，通過對(duì)觀測(cè)資料的進(jìn)一步分析（二元或多元），獲得符合客觀實(shí)際的環(huán)境參數(shù)，對(duì)于提高港口規(guī)劃質(zhì)量，分析港口營(yíng)運(yùn)能力至關(guān)重要。 本文通過收集青島地區(qū)1948～1977年氣象觀測(cè)資料，包括風(fēng)、降水，以及霧的觀測(cè)資料，在傳統(tǒng)數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)做法的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)每一種單獨(dú)的氣象要素采用最大熵分布進(jìn)行了建模計(jì)算，得到了一維氣象統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果；采用基于正態(tài)Copula的二維最大熵分布，對(duì)青島地區(qū)歷年（或歷年各月）日最大降水量及其發(fā)生的時(shí)刻進(jìn)行了二維統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，其結(jié)果對(duì)于合理安排港口作業(yè)時(shí)間，避免怠工損失有重要的參考價(jià)值。本文的主要工作如下： 1.利用最大熵分布函數(shù)，對(duì)青島地區(qū)歷年大于某些風(fēng)級(jí)、日降水量、某種能見度的天數(shù)進(jìn)行了擬合分析，給出了相應(yīng)風(fēng)級(jí)天數(shù)、相應(yīng)降水天數(shù)、相應(yīng)能見度天數(shù)的設(shè)計(jì)重現(xiàn)值，可為港口工程設(shè)計(jì)、施工提供參考，及早做出相應(yīng)防范。特別是當(dāng)日降水量大于等于25mm時(shí)，規(guī)劃上認(rèn)為港口應(yīng)停止裝卸作業(yè)，否則將產(chǎn)生危險(xiǎn)，因此日降水量大于等于25mm天數(shù)的重現(xiàn)值對(duì)于設(shè)計(jì)意義重要。 2.利用基于正態(tài)Copula的二維最大熵分布，建立了(RY, LY)和(RM, LM)的二維聯(lián)合概率模型，通過對(duì)二者的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，進(jìn)一步得到歷年/各月日最大降水量及其所處位置的關(guān)系，為港口工程作業(yè)時(shí)所面臨最困難（或最危險(xiǎn)）的情況提供定量化的意見指導(dǎo)。結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)聯(lián)合重現(xiàn)期為某個(gè)值時(shí)，有無數(shù)組RY和LY（或RMi和LMi）與其對(duì)應(yīng)，此時(shí)給定一個(gè)日最大降水量，就可以得到該降水量相應(yīng)所處該年的確切位置。
[Abstract]:Weather conditions are the main factors that affect the construction and operation of port engineering. No matter the wind, precipitation, fog or fog, all of the port engineering construction, port planning. The meteorological observation data of the port location are collected, the characteristics of the occurrence and disaster are studied, the statistical analysis work is done correctly, and the statistical indexes of different meteorological elements are calculated objectively. It is very important to strengthen the level of port operation and improve the capacity of port transit. The existing meteorological index calculation methods are basically univariate and sometimes can not reflect the interaction between various elements. Through the further analysis of observation data (binary or multivariate), it is very important to obtain the environmental parameters which accord with the objective reality for improving the quality of the port planning and analyzing the port operation capacity. In this paper, the meteorological observation data, including wind, precipitation and fog, are collected from 1948-#date0# in Qingdao, based on the traditional mathematical statistical methods. The maximum entropy distribution is used to model and calculate each individual meteorological element, and the one-dimensional meteorological statistical results are obtained. The two-dimensional maximum entropy distribution based on normal Copula is used to analyze the maximum daily precipitation and its occurrence time in Qingdao area. The results have important reference value for arranging port operation time reasonably and avoiding idle work losses. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1. By using the maximum entropy distribution function, the days of daily precipitation and visibility in Qingdao area are fitted and analyzed, and the corresponding days of wind scale and corresponding precipitation are given. The design recurrence value of the corresponding visibility days can provide reference for port engineering design and construction, and make corresponding precautions as early as possible, especially when the daily precipitation is greater than or equal to 25mm. According to the plan, the port should stop loading and unloading, otherwise it will be dangerous, so it is important for the design that the daily precipitation is more than 25mm days. 2. Using the two-dimensional maximum entropy distribution based on normal Copula, the two dimensional joint probability models of RY, LY) and RM, LM) are established, and the correlation between them is analyzed. The relationship between the maximum precipitation and the location of the maximum precipitation per calendar year / month is further obtained to provide quantitative guidance on the most difficult (or most dangerous) situations facing port engineering operations. When the joint recurrence period is a certain value, there are countless groups of ry and LY (or RMi and LMi) corresponding to them. At this time, given a maximum daily precipitation, the exact position of the precipitation corresponding to that year can be obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U652.5;U651

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