本文關鍵詞： 土石壩 風險分析 網(wǎng)絡分析法 灰色模糊綜合評判　出處：《鄭州大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：土石壩是國內(nèi)應用最為廣泛、發(fā)展最快的壩型，然而由于各種原因，很多早期建設的土石壩存在著較為嚴重的安全隱患。通過風險分析可以有效識別出影響土石壩安全的主要風險因素，合理評價土石壩的風險程度，并指導病險水庫的除險加固或改擴建，具有很好的實際意義。 針對土石壩風險分析的復雜性和不確定性問題，將網(wǎng)絡分析法和灰色模糊數(shù)學理論引入土石壩風險分析中，建立基于改進網(wǎng)絡分析法的灰色模糊綜合評判模型，并將其應用于實際工程中，驗證了模型的可行性。主要研究內(nèi)容如下： (1)根據(jù)我國實際情況，考慮我國大中型、小型水庫存在的差異以及東、西部文化、經(jīng)濟、人口密度等方面的不同，分別建立適用于我國東、西部的大中型和小型水庫大壩的風險標準。 (2)以層次分析法為基礎，詳細闡述網(wǎng)絡分析法的結(jié)構(gòu)原理和極限相對排序向量的計算方法，，并從標度和判斷矩陣的構(gòu)造入手引入三角模糊指數(shù)標度，對傳統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡分析法進行改進。 (3)在網(wǎng)絡分析法、灰色模糊數(shù)學理論的基礎上，建立基于改進網(wǎng)絡分析法的灰色模糊綜合評判模型；將評判模型應用于土石壩風險分析，構(gòu)建土石壩風險分析的指標體系和網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)圖，制定各風險指標的等級劃分標準，給出各指標權(quán)重計算的方法和步驟，確定各指標隸屬函數(shù)的選取。 (4)應用土石壩風險綜合評判模型對某水庫大壩工程風險狀況進行綜合評價，評價結(jié)論符合水庫的實際情況，驗證了模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:Earth-rock dam is the most widely used and fastest developing dam in China, however, due to various reasons. Many earth-rock dams built in the early stage have serious hidden dangers. Through risk analysis, the main risk factors affecting the safety of earth-rock dams can be effectively identified and the risk degree of earth-rock dams can be reasonably evaluated. It is of great practical significance to guide the reinforcement or reconstruction of the dangerous reservoir. Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the network analysis method and the grey fuzzy mathematics theory are introduced into the risk analysis of earth-rock dam. The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established and applied to practical engineering to verify the feasibility of the model. The main research contents are as follows: According to the actual situation of our country, considering the differences of large and medium-sized reservoirs and small reservoirs in our country, as well as the differences in culture, economy, population density and so on in the east and west of China, respectively, they are applicable to the east of our country. Risk criteria for large and small reservoir dams in the west. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the structure principle of the network analysis method and the calculation method of the limit relative sort vector are expounded in detail, and the triangular fuzzy exponential scale is introduced from the construction of the scale and judgment matrix. The traditional network analysis method is improved. 3) on the basis of network analysis method and grey fuzzy mathematics theory, the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established. The evaluation model is applied to the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the index system and network structure diagram of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam are constructed, the classification standard of each risk index is formulated, and the methods and steps of calculating the weight of each index are given. Determine the selection of membership function of each index. 4) the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of earth-rock dam is used to evaluate the risk situation of a reservoir dam project. The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the reservoir, and the feasibility of the model is verified.
【學位授予單位】：鄭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV641

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