本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水文學(xué)及水資源 徑流衰減 主成分分析 人類活動 禿尾河流域　出處：《自然資源學(xué)報(bào)》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：掌握流域徑流演變規(guī)律,探討其影響因子,對流域水資源合理開發(fā)利用和科學(xué)管理具有重要的意義。論文依據(jù)禿尾河流域1956—2010年徑流、降水資料以及榆林站1956—2010年氣溫資料,采用高橋浩一郎公式計(jì)算了流域蒸散發(fā)量,利用Kendall秩次檢驗(yàn)法分析了流域降雨、徑流和蒸發(fā)的趨勢演變特性;采用主成分分析法研究了多因子對流域徑流衰減的影響;建立了徑流衰減量與主要影響因子之間的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型。結(jié)果表明:1)流域徑流量呈顯著減少趨勢,而蒸發(fā)量和降水量減少趨勢不顯著;2)在徑流衰減驅(qū)動力因子中,人類活動因子權(quán)重為71.1%,而氣候因子權(quán)重為28.9%,各驅(qū)動力因子對徑流衰減的貢獻(xiàn)率由大到小依次為:林草梯田壩地流域用水量年降水量年蒸發(fā)量;3)徑流衰減量與林草、梯田的指數(shù)回歸模型能較好地反映徑流衰減量與驅(qū)動力因子之間的定量關(guān)系,可以為流域治理和水資源開發(fā)利用提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance for the rational development and utilization of water resources and scientific management to grasp the evolution law of river basin runoff and discuss its influencing factors. This paper is based on the runoff of Tongwei River basin from 1956 to 2010. Precipitation data and temperature data of Yulin station from 1956 to 2010 were used to calculate the evapotranspiration of the watershed by using the Gao Qiao Hao Ichiro formula and the rainfall in the basin was analyzed by Kendall rank test method. Trend evolution characteristics of runoff and evaporation; The effects of multi-factors on runoff attenuation were studied by principal component analysis (PCA). The statistical model between runoff attenuation and main influencing factors is established. The results show that runoff volume decreases significantly, but evaporation and precipitation decrease insignificantly. 2) among the driving force factors of runoff attenuation, the weight of human activity factor is 71.1 and that of climate factor is 28.9%. The contribution rate of each driving force factor to runoff attenuation is as follows: annual precipitation annual evaporation of forest and grass terrace dam basin; 3) the exponential regression model of runoff attenuation, forest, grass and terrace can better reflect the quantitative relationship between runoff attenuation and driving force, and can provide scientific basis for watershed management and water resources exploitation and utilization.
【作者單位】： 西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)水利與建筑工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金(QN2009088);西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)科技發(fā)展基金(A2990215215)~~
【分類號】：P333.1
【正文快照】： 伴隨著全球氣候變化和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展,人類活動對自然環(huán)境的影響愈來愈顯著,流域水循環(huán)過程愈來愈活躍,在原有的天然水循環(huán)內(nèi)產(chǎn)生了人工側(cè)支循環(huán)[1]。徑流是最主要的水循環(huán)要素之一,是水資源的重要組成部分,其變化直接影響著水資源的開發(fā)利用[2]。對河川徑流演變的驅(qū)動力因子分

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本文編號：1462126