本文選題：人的可靠性　切入點(diǎn)：管道維搶修　出處：《西南石油大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：管道維搶修作業(yè)中人為因素的影響是管道可靠性分析中不可缺少的一部分,不僅要考慮管道系統(tǒng)設(shè)備本身的可靠性,還要考慮影響管道系統(tǒng)可靠性的人為因素。眾多研究表明,許多事故是人、設(shè)備和環(huán)境等因素共同作用的結(jié)果,而人為因素是許多事故的根源。因此,操作人員的可靠性研究對(duì)于管道維搶修作業(yè)是十分重要的。本文以操作人員的可靠性為主線,以管道維搶修作業(yè)為應(yīng)用對(duì)象,進(jìn)行了以下五個(gè)方面的研究:(1)對(duì)管道維搶修作業(yè)的特點(diǎn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行了分析,總結(jié)整理了維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的一些失誤環(huán)節(jié)、失誤行為以及造成的后果,結(jié)合所闡述的人為失誤模型以及管道維搶修作業(yè)的過程,建立了管道維搶修作業(yè)中人為失誤模型。(2)根據(jù)人的因素指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的原則和步驟,通過專家問卷調(diào)查方法,確定了管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的因素指標(biāo)體系,并對(duì)管道維搶修作業(yè)中影響操作人員失誤的因素進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)地分析,運(yùn)用層次分析法,確定了管道維搶修作業(yè)中人的因素指標(biāo)權(quán)重。(3)根據(jù)灰色理論、層次分析法等理論,結(jié)合實(shí)例,運(yùn)用灰色層次綜合評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的失誤因素指標(biāo)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)。通過運(yùn)用失敗似然指數(shù)法和層次分析法相結(jié)合,計(jì)算出了管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的可靠性。(4)從組織因素、個(gè)人因素、技術(shù)設(shè)備、群體因素和環(huán)境因素等五個(gè)方面制定了提高操作人員可靠性的措施,對(duì)每一個(gè)措施進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析。提出改進(jìn)措施后,并對(duì)改進(jìn)后的操作人員可靠性進(jìn)行了計(jì)算,與改進(jìn)前進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。通過分析,得出以下主要結(jié)論:(1)結(jié)合所闡述的人為失誤模型和管道維搶修作業(yè)的過程,建立了管道維搶修作業(yè)中人為失誤模型。該模型由信息的輸入、信號(hào)的感應(yīng)、響應(yīng)階段、人員失誤作用在管道維搶修系統(tǒng)上、發(fā)生人員失誤事件等5個(gè)部分組成。(2)管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的因素指標(biāo)體系為一個(gè)三級(jí)指標(biāo)體系,其中一級(jí)指標(biāo)5個(gè),二級(jí)指標(biāo)22個(gè),三級(jí)指標(biāo)因素共23個(gè),包括了組織因素、個(gè)人因素、群體因素、環(huán)境因素和技術(shù)設(shè)備等5個(gè)方面。(3)計(jì)算出了管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員的因素指標(biāo)權(quán)重,其中組織因素權(quán)重為0.45,個(gè)人因素為0.18,群體因素為0.13,環(huán)境因素為0.07,技術(shù)設(shè)備為0.17。(4)將失敗似然指數(shù)法(FLIM)和層次分析法(AHP)相結(jié)合,計(jì)算出了管道維搶修操作人員8個(gè)典型的人因失誤的概率以及可靠性。(5)結(jié)合管道維搶修作業(yè)的特點(diǎn)以及管道維搶修作業(yè)中人的因素體系,從組織因素、個(gè)人因素、群體因素、技術(shù)設(shè)備、環(huán)境因素等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的分析,提出了提高管道維搶修作業(yè)中操作人員可靠性方法的措施,并對(duì)改進(jìn)后的操作人員可靠性進(jìn)行了計(jì)算,與改進(jìn)前進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析,說明了所提出的提高人員可靠性的措施是可行的。
[Abstract]:The influence of human factors in pipeline repair operation is an indispensable part of pipeline reliability analysis. It is necessary to consider not only the reliability of pipeline system equipment, but also the human factors that affect the reliability of pipeline system. Many accidents are the result of a combination of human, equipment and environmental factors, and human factors are the root causes of many accidents. It is very important to study the reliability of the operator for the emergency repair of pipeline. This paper takes the reliability of the operator as the main line and takes the emergency repair of the pipeline as the application object. This paper analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation, summarizes and sorts out some mistakes, behaviors and consequences of the operators in the maintenance rush repair operation, and analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation in the following five aspects: (1) the article analyzes the characteristics and risks of the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation. Combined with the described human error model and the process of pipeline repair, the human error model in pipeline repair operation is established. The principles and steps of constructing human factor index system are established, and the method of expert questionnaire survey is adopted. The factor index system of the operator in the pipeline maintenance rush repair operation is determined, and the factors affecting the operator error in the pipeline maintenance operation are analyzed in detail, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used. According to grey theory, analytic hierarchy process and other theories, combined with an example, This paper makes a comprehensive evaluation of the failure factor index of the operator in the pipeline maintenance operation by using the comprehensive evaluation of grey hierarchy process. The failure likelihood index method is combined with the analytic hierarchy process method. The reliability of operators in pipeline maintenance repair operation is calculated. (4) measures to improve the reliability of operators are formulated from five aspects: organizational factors, personal factors, technical equipment, group factors and environmental factors. Each measure is analyzed in detail. After the improvement measures are put forward, the reliability of the improved operator is calculated and compared with that before the improvement. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) combined with the process of human error model and pipeline repair operation, the human error model in pipeline repair operation is established. The model consists of the input of information, the induction of signal, and the response stage. The factor index system of the operator in the pipeline maintenance emergency repair operation is a three-level index system, in which the first-grade index is 5, the second grade is 22. A total of 23 third-level index factors, including organizational factors, personal factors, group factors, environmental factors and technical equipment, were used to calculate the weight of the factors of the operators in the pipeline maintenance operation. The weight of organizational factor is 0.45, individual factor is 0.18, group factor is 0.13, environmental factor is 0.07, and technical equipment is 0.17.44) the failure likelihood index method (FLIMM) is combined with Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This paper calculates the probability and reliability of 8 typical manmade failures of pipeline maintenance operators, combined with the characteristics of pipeline maintenance rush repair operations and the human factor system in pipeline maintenance rush repair operations, from organizational factors, individual factors, group factors, etc. The technical equipment, environmental factors and other aspects are analyzed in detail, and the measures to improve the reliability of the operators in the pipeline repair operation are put forward, and the reliability of the improved operators is calculated. The comparison and analysis before the improvement shows that the proposed measures to improve the reliability of personnel are feasible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TE88

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