發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-02 16:21

【摘要】：在我國城市燃?xì)獍l(fā)展初期,因局限于當(dāng)時(shí)的管道技術(shù)和管材的使用,灰口鑄鐵管被廣泛使用。隨著城鎮(zhèn)燃?xì)獗恢脫Q為天然氣以及城市建設(shè)的快速發(fā)展,灰口鑄鐵管因抗拉強(qiáng)度、抗彎曲能力較差,具有脆性缺陷,連續(xù)鑄管工藝造成管材有沙眼、層皮、不圓等自身缺陷而引發(fā)的問題也越來越突出,加上施工質(zhì)量和安全管理不到位,近幾年,灰口鑄鐵管頻繁出現(xiàn)漏氣、斷裂等現(xiàn)象。因此,燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)成為國內(nèi)城市燃?xì)夤艿腊踩芯康闹攸c(diǎn)之一。本文將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論和現(xiàn)代綜合評(píng)價(jià)理論相結(jié)合對(duì)燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。通過對(duì)灰口鑄鐵管道特性、事故的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,對(duì)灰口鑄鐵管道失效風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行辨識(shí),確定影響管道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素；選用專家評(píng)議法和管道指數(shù)評(píng)分法建立失效發(fā)生可能性的指標(biāo)體系；選用層次分析法對(duì)指標(biāo)權(quán)重進(jìn)行計(jì)算；在管道失效后果嚴(yán)重性分析中,對(duì)可能波及的范圍和程度進(jìn)行分析,從中確定出管道事故后果嚴(yán)重性的各種指標(biāo)。從而,建立了完整的燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道的半定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系。利用Fluent軟件對(duì)燃?xì)庑孤⿺U(kuò)散過程進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬。研究了泄漏口直徑d、管道內(nèi)壓力p、風(fēng)速v及風(fēng)向?qū)π孤┖蠊挠绊�。結(jié)果表明隨著當(dāng)量直徑的增大、管道內(nèi)壓強(qiáng)的增大,釋放量和爆炸危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域均增大；外部風(fēng)向的改變以及風(fēng)速大小都直接影響甲烷的濃度分布,逆向風(fēng)最為不利,其他方向的外來風(fēng)都會(huì)加強(qiáng)甲烷的擴(kuò)散,且風(fēng)速越大擴(kuò)散加劇。本論文不僅對(duì)燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),并通過Fluent數(shù)值模擬對(duì)燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道泄漏影響問題進(jìn)行了深入研究,使燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道事故后果影響因素中的泄漏影響更加直觀具體,為燃?xì)饣铱阼T鐵管道泄漏事故的應(yīng)急救援提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In the early stage of urban gas development in China, ash cast iron pipe was widely used because of its limitation to the use of pipeline technology and pipe at that time. With the replacement of urban gas for natural gas and the rapid development of urban construction, gray cast iron pipe has more and more serious problems caused by its own defects such as trachoma, layer skin, non-circle and so on because of its tensile strength, poor bending resistance and brittleness defects. In addition, the construction quality and safety management are not in place. In recent years, gray cast iron pipe frequently appears air leakage, fracture and so on. Therefore, the risk assessment of gas gray cast iron pipeline has become one of the key points of urban gas pipeline safety research in China. In this paper, the risk assessment of gas gray cast iron pipeline is carried out by combining risk management theory with modern comprehensive evaluation theory. Through the statistical analysis of the characteristics and accidents of gray cast iron pipeline, the failure risk of gray cast iron pipeline is identified and the risk factors affecting the pipeline are determined. The index system of failure possibility is established by expert evaluation method and pipeline index scoring method, and the index weight is calculated by AHP. In the severity analysis of pipeline failure consequences, the scope and degree of possible contagion are analyzed, and various indexes of the severity of pipeline accident consequences are determined. Thus, a complete semi-quantitative risk assessment system for gas gray cast iron pipeline is established. The process of gas leakage and diffusion is simulated by Fluent software. The effects of leakage diameter d, pressure p, wind speed v and wind direction on the consequences of leakage are studied. The results show that with the increase of equivalent diameter, the pressure in the pipeline increases, the release amount and explosion risk area increase, the change of external wind direction and wind speed directly affect the concentration distribution of methane, the reverse wind is the most unfavorable, and the outward wind in other directions will strengthen the diffusion of methane, and the larger the wind speed is, the worse the diffusion of methane will be. In this paper, not only the risk of gas gray cast iron pipeline is evaluated, but also the influence of gas gray cast iron pipeline leakage is deeply studied by Fluent numerical simulation, which makes the leakage influence among the influencing factors of gas gray cast iron pipeline accident more intuitionistic and concrete, and provides scientific basis for emergency rescue of gas gray cast iron pipeline leakage accident.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TU996

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