【摘要】：工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涉及技術(shù)、法律和經(jīng)濟(jì)等眾多專業(yè)學(xué)科知識(shí)，它是一門理論性和實(shí)踐性都非常強(qiáng)的學(xué)問(wèn)。國(guó)內(nèi)建筑企業(yè)對(duì)比國(guó)外同行，在索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方面，不管是理論上還是實(shí)踐上都還存在一定的差距。索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)伴隨著項(xiàng)目實(shí)施而產(chǎn)生，是工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的重要組成部分。 本文首先闡述了工程索賠和工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論，同時(shí)從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制等方面對(duì)工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析和研究。通過(guò)對(duì)工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的分析，，本文建立了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系，并構(gòu)建了基于模糊影響圖理論的索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型，最后通過(guò)工程實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了該評(píng)價(jià)模型的系統(tǒng)性和可行性。結(jié)合影響圖模型對(duì)工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)，確定索賠額相對(duì)于中標(biāo)合同價(jià)的增加幅度，以此為參考，提出工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略。同時(shí)，本文指出在工程實(shí)施過(guò)程中應(yīng)加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，合理掌控工程索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并采取主動(dòng)措施，使用回避、分散或轉(zhuǎn)移等方法和技術(shù)妥善地處理可能產(chǎn)生的不利后果，由此對(duì)索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件實(shí)施有效控制，降低其對(duì)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的影響。索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別和分析也為索賠管理提供了重要依據(jù)，有助于承包商開(kāi)展對(duì)業(yè)主方的索賠工作，通過(guò)有效的索賠減少經(jīng)濟(jì)上的損失，以合理的成本保證預(yù)定目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。論文的研究成果能夠?qū)こ趟髻r風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理起到一定的借鑒作用，并有利于實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)利益最大化。 模糊影響圖法有效的克服了傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法在建模上的缺陷，同時(shí)也克服了實(shí)際工程背景下要獲取不確定因素發(fā)生概率的困難，是一種應(yīng)用前景廣闊的索賠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法�？紤]到工程項(xiàng)目的階段性特征，對(duì)于多階段結(jié)點(diǎn)的模糊影響圖理論方法還需作出進(jìn)一步研究。
[Abstract]:Engineering claim risk management involves many professional knowledge, such as technology, law and economics. It is a very theoretical and practical knowledge. Compared with their counterparts abroad, domestic construction enterprises still have a certain gap in claim risk management both in theory and in practice. Claim risk is an important part of project risk management. In this paper, the theory of engineering claim and engineering risk management is first expounded, and the risk of engineering claim is analyzed and studied from the aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk control and so on. By analyzing the risk factors of engineering claim, this paper establishes the corresponding risk evaluation system, and constructs a claim risk evaluation model based on fuzzy impact diagram theory. Finally, the system and feasibility of the evaluation model are verified by an engineering example. Combined with the influence diagram model, the comprehensive evaluation of engineering claim risk is carried out, and the increase of claim amount relative to the contract price of the winning bid is determined, and the risk management strategy of engineering claim is put forward for reference. At the same time, this paper points out that the risk management should be strengthened in the process of project implementation, the risk of claim for engineering should be reasonably controlled, and active measures should be taken to properly deal with the possible adverse consequences by using methods and techniques such as avoidance, dispersion or transfer. Thus, the claim risk events are effectively controlled and the impact on project construction is reduced. The identification and analysis of claim risk also provide an important basis for claim management, which is helpful for the contractor to carry out the claim work against the owner, reduce the economic loss through effective claims, and ensure the realization of the predetermined goal with reasonable cost. The research results of this paper can be used for reference to the risk management of engineering claims and help to maximize the interests of enterprises. The fuzzy impact diagram method overcomes the defects of the traditional risk analysis method in modeling, and it also overcomes the difficulty of obtaining the probability of uncertain factors under the background of practical engineering. It is a widely applied risk assessment method for claims. Considering the stage characteristics of engineering projects, the theory and method of fuzzy influence diagram of multi-stage nodes need to be further studied.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TU723

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