本文選題：變更 + 變更機會��； 參考：《天津理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著建筑市場的蓬勃發(fā)展，承包人之間競爭日益激烈，經(jīng)評審的最低投標價法評標使得承包人追求低價中標。大量的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)表明我國建筑施工企業(yè)的利潤率低下，并一直沒有得到解決。中標概率以及利潤最大化是承包人追求的兩大目標，然而中標概率最大則意味著盈利空間小，追求利潤最大則中標概率相對較低，兩者似乎不可調(diào)和。不平衡報價是承包人在已標價工程量清單基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)高價結(jié)算的主要手段之一，，如何利用不平衡報價來實現(xiàn)創(chuàng)收是承包人亟待解決的現(xiàn)實問題。建設(shè)項目的實踐證明，變更是承包人實現(xiàn)合同外收入的重要影響因素之一，合理利用變更進行不平衡報價，可以為承包人創(chuàng)造額外利潤。 基于上述建設(shè)項目的實踐問題以及學(xué)術(shù)界的報價策略研究，對變更類、不平衡報價類相關(guān)文獻進行整理和分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：鮮有研究不平衡報價的實現(xiàn)路徑。因此，借鑒風(fēng)險管理理論思想構(gòu)建不平衡報價分析框架—SEDA模型，將不平衡報價實現(xiàn)路徑程序化、規(guī)范化，并致力于SEDA模型中變更機會點識別的研究。針對變更機會點識別的問題，在相關(guān)規(guī)范整理的基礎(chǔ)上，運用文獻分析法、問題樹分析法以及多案例研究等方法，對不平衡報價變更機會點的識別進行全面、系統(tǒng)、深入地研究，主要研究內(nèi)容如下： （1）在整理08清單計價規(guī)范對于工程價款調(diào)整規(guī)定以及分析變更類文獻的基礎(chǔ)上，通過文獻分析法歸納總結(jié)出建設(shè)項目在招投標階段可以事先預(yù)測的變更包括兩大類：一是招標文件缺陷類變更；二是地質(zhì)勘探資料描述與現(xiàn)場踏勘不符類變更。 （2）針對招標文件缺陷類變更機會點的識別問題，運用問題樹分析法，分析項目特征描述不符、工程量清單缺項引起實體項目和措施項目增加、工程量偏差的各種情形，并層層細化變更機會點，并設(shè)計相應(yīng)的不平衡單價，實施不平衡報價策略。 （3）地質(zhì)勘探資料描述類變更機會點的識別關(guān)鍵在于尋找地質(zhì)勘探資料描述與現(xiàn)場踏勘情況之間的差異。因此，基于地質(zhì)條件的復(fù)雜性、隱蔽性以及不可完全預(yù)見性等特性構(gòu)建“差異—機會點—變更情形”分析框架，運用多案例研究法對特殊性土、地質(zhì)露頭、地質(zhì)構(gòu)造、水文地質(zhì)以及取土棄土場地條件等五類可能存在變更機會點的情形進行探索性研究，進而大大加強承包人對此類變更情形的可預(yù)見性、可利用性以及可實現(xiàn)性的控制水平。 （4）案例驗證。在第四章和第五章兩大類變更機會點的識別過程中，分別結(jié)合建設(shè)項目實踐案例，運用SEDA模型和“差異—機會點—變更情形”分析框架進行驗證。 通過上述研究，得到以下研究成果：不平衡報價實現(xiàn)路徑—SEDA模型，招標文件缺陷類變更機會點、報價方案一覽表；地質(zhì)勘探資料描述類變更機會點識別工具“差異—機會點—變更情形”；地質(zhì)勘探資料描述類變更機會點、報價方案一覽表。研究成果具有較好的操作指南價值。
[Abstract]:With the flourishing development of the construction market, the competition among contractors is increasingly fierce. The evaluation of the lowest bid price evaluation makes the contractor pursue the bid at low price. A large number of statistical data show that the profit rate of the construction enterprises in China is low and has not been solved. The two main objectives of the Contractor's pursuit are the probability of winning the bid and the maximization of profit. However, the maximum probability of winning the bid mean that the profit space is small and the maximum profit is the lowest probability of winning the bid, which seems to be irreconcilable. The unbalanced quotation is one of the main means for the contractor to achieve high price settlement on the basis of the already marked price list. How to use the unbalanced quotation to achieve income generation is an urgent problem for the contractor to solve The practical problem. The practice of the construction project has proved that the change is one of the important factors that the contractor realizes the income outside the contract. The reasonable use of the change to carry out the unbalanced quotation can create extra profit for the contractor.
Based on the practical problems of the above construction projects and the study of the quotation strategy in the academic circle, the paper collated and analyzed the related literature of the change class and the unbalanced quotation class. There were few research ways to realize the unbalanced quotation. Therefore, using the theory of risk management to construct an unbalanced price analysis framework SEDA model, the unbalanced quotation is not balanced. The present path is programmed, standardized, and devoted to the research of change opportunity point identification in the SEDA model. In view of the problem of change opportunity point identification, on the basis of the relevant specification, the method of document analysis, problem tree analysis and multi case study are used to identify the opportunity point of the unbalanced price change. The main research contents are as follows:
(1) on the basis of sorting out the regulation of the 08 list price regulation on the adjustment of the engineering price and analyzing the documents of the change class, through the literature analysis, it concludes that the change of the construction project can be predicted in the bidding stage including two categories: one is the change of the defect class of the bidding documents, and the two is the description of the geological exploration data and the site exploration. Character change.
(2) in view of the identification problem of the opportunity point for the change of the defect class of the bidding documents, the problem tree analysis method is used to analyze the discrepancy of the feature description of the project, the items of the project and the measure items increase, the various situations of the deviation of the engineering quantity, the change of the opportunity point of the change, and the design of the corresponding unbalance price, the implementation of the unbalanced quotation policy. A little.
(3) the key to the identification of the opportunity points for the description of the geological exploration data is to find the difference between the geological exploration data description and the field survey. Therefore, based on the characteristics of the complexity, concealment and not completely foreseeable of geological conditions, the "difference opportunity point change case" analysis framework is constructed, and the multi case study method is used. Five kinds of possibility of change opportunity point, such as special soil, geological outcrop, geological structure, hydrogeology and ground condition, are studied, and the predictability, availability and the control level of the contractor to this kind of change are greatly strengthened.
(4) case verification. In the recognition process of the fourth and the fifth chapter of the two major change opportunity points, the SEDA model and the "difference opportunity point change case" analysis framework are used to verify the case with the construction project practice cases respectively.
Through the above research, we get the following research results: the path of unbalanced quotation realization - SEDA model, the opportunity point of the defect class change of the bidding documents, the list of quotation scheme, the "difference opportunity point - change case", the geological exploration data description tool, the opportunity point of the class change, the quotation scheme The research results have a good value of operation guide.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU723.2

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本文編號：2109432