本文關(guān)鍵詞： 既有住宅 循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì) 預(yù)測(cè)分析 環(huán)境效益 改造潛力 改造機(jī)制　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：針對(duì)目前我國(guó)城市既有住宅的“短命”和建筑業(yè)的高污染現(xiàn)象，以循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論為切入點(diǎn)，系統(tǒng)分析了既有住宅更新改造與循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系，構(gòu)建了城市住宅拆除量預(yù)測(cè)的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)Boosting集成模型，對(duì)住宅更新改造的環(huán)境參數(shù)和環(huán)境績(jī)效進(jìn)行了分析，并從所有者及使用者的態(tài)度、既有住宅的狀況、環(huán)境性能和人文社會(huì)屬性四個(gè)層面構(gòu)建了既有住宅更新改造潛力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)模型，提出了住宅更新改造的對(duì)策和建議。具體內(nèi)容如下： 1.在對(duì)循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本理論介紹的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國(guó)目前常見(jiàn)的既有住宅更新改造方式，指出循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)是促進(jìn)城市發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵，既有住宅更新改造是循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)減量化原則和再利用原則的重要體現(xiàn)。 2.采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法篩選出影響城市住宅拆除量的主要因素，然后采用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)Boosting集成模型對(duì)城市住宅拆除量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析。分析結(jié)果表明，住宅自身的建造質(zhì)量并非影響我國(guó)住宅拆除量的主要因素，影響城市住宅拆除量的主要因素為經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的驅(qū)動(dòng)和因農(nóng)村人口遷入城市導(dǎo)致的對(duì)住宅需求量的增加。 3.以“隱含環(huán)境影響因子”概念為平臺(tái)，構(gòu)建了住宅隱含環(huán)境影響因子計(jì)算模型，并采用該方法對(duì)我國(guó)城市住宅更新改造的環(huán)境參數(shù)進(jìn)行了計(jì)算分析。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明，對(duì)既有住宅進(jìn)行更新改造，而不是簡(jiǎn)單拆除，在減少資源消耗和降低環(huán)境污染方面具有良好的環(huán)境生態(tài)效益，符合循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)減量化和再利用的基本要求，并且環(huán)境效益隨住宅更新改造時(shí)建筑實(shí)體保留率的增加而增長(zhǎng)。 4.對(duì)既有住宅更新改造的直接效益、間接效益和可能的負(fù)效益進(jìn)行了分析，并以環(huán)境參數(shù)為輸入數(shù)據(jù)，計(jì)算了既有住宅更新改造的環(huán)境價(jià)值。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明，對(duì)既有住宅進(jìn)行更新改造具有明顯的環(huán)境價(jià)值，符合循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展的要求。 5.從所有者及使用者的態(tài)度、既有住宅的狀況、環(huán)境性能和人文社會(huì)屬性四個(gè)層面，構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)化的既有住宅更新改造潛力評(píng)價(jià)體系，在指標(biāo)權(quán)重的計(jì)算中綜合分析了主客觀權(quán)重確定方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，，并根據(jù)該指標(biāo)體系的特點(diǎn)，采用了改進(jìn)的層次分析法確定了指標(biāo)體系的權(quán)重，最后建立了評(píng)價(jià)模型，完善了該領(lǐng)域的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化體系，為既有住宅更新改造的時(shí)機(jī)選擇提供了依據(jù)。 6.由于住宅更新改造具有明顯的環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)外部性，符合循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基本原則和要求，以政府介入循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論基礎(chǔ)—外部性理論為切入點(diǎn)，從政策支撐體系建設(shè)、法律支撐體系建設(shè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)支撐體系建設(shè)、觀念意識(shí)轉(zhuǎn)變和提升及專業(yè)人才培養(yǎng)五個(gè)方面提出了我國(guó)舊住宅更新改造的相關(guān)政策性建議。 以上研究成果對(duì)于科學(xué)合理的判斷既有住宅更新改造的潛力，制定相關(guān)舊住宅更新改造的政策，延長(zhǎng)我國(guó)城市住宅的壽命，減少因拆、建過(guò)于頻繁導(dǎo)致的環(huán)境污染具有一定的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In view of the "short life" of the existing housing and the high pollution of the construction industry in our country, the relationship between the renewal of the existing residence and the circular economy is systematically analyzed with the theory of circular economy as the breakthrough point. A neural network Boosting integrated model for predicting the demolition quantity of urban residential buildings is constructed. The environmental parameters and environmental performance of residential renewal and renovation are analyzed, and the attitudes of owners and users are analyzed. This paper constructs the evaluation index system and evaluation model of the existing housing renewal potential from four aspects: the condition of the existing residence, the environmental performance and the humanistic social attribute. The countermeasures and suggestions for the renewal and renovation of residential buildings are put forward. The specific contents are as follows: 1. On the basis of the introduction of the basic theory of circular economy, combined with the existing residential renewal and transformation mode, it is pointed out that circular economy is the key to promote the development of the city. The renewal and transformation of existing housing is an important embodiment of the principle of circular economy reduction and reuse. 2. The main factors influencing the demolition amount of urban residential buildings are screened by using the method of grey correlation degree analysis. Then the neural network Boosting integrated model is used to predict and analyze the demolition quantity of urban housing. The results show that the construction quality of the house itself is not the main factor affecting the demolition quantity of housing in China. The main factors affecting the demolition amount of urban housing are the driving force of economic benefits and the increasing demand for housing caused by the migration of rural population to the city. 3. Based on the concept of "implied environmental impact factor", the calculation model of residential implicit environmental impact factor is constructed. The method is used to calculate and analyze the environmental parameters of urban residential renewal and renovation in China. The results show that the existing residential buildings should be renovated rather than simply demolished. It has good environmental ecological benefits in reducing resource consumption and reducing environmental pollution, which meets the basic requirements of circular economy reduction and reuse. And the environmental benefit increases with the increase of building entity retention rate. 4. The direct benefit, indirect benefit and possible negative benefit are analyzed, and the environmental parameters are taken as input data. The environmental value of the renewal and renovation of the existing residence is calculated. The result shows that the renewal and renovation of the existing residence has obvious environmental value and meets the requirements of circular economy and environmental sustainable development. 5. From the attitude of owners and users, the status of existing housing, environmental performance and humanistic and social attributes, a systematic evaluation system of existing housing renewal potential is constructed. In the calculation of index weight, the advantages and disadvantages of the subjective and objective weight determination method are comprehensively analyzed, and according to the characteristics of the index system, the improved AHP method is used to determine the weight of the index system. Finally, the evaluation model is established, and the standardization system in this field is perfected, which provides the basis for the choice of the opportunity for the renewal and renovation of the existing housing. 6. Because of its obvious environmental and economic externalities, housing renovation meets the basic principles and requirements of the development of circular economy, and takes the theory of government intervention in the development of circular economy as the starting point. From the policy support system construction, the legal support system construction, the economic market support system construction. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions on the renewal and renovation of old houses in China from five aspects: the change and promotion of concept consciousness and the cultivation of professional talents. The above research results are scientific and reasonable to judge the potential of existing residential renewal and renovation, to formulate policies related to the renovation of old housing, to prolong the life of urban housing in China, and to reduce the demolition. The environmental pollution caused by building too often has certain reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：TU241

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