【摘要】：足球運(yùn)動是世界第一運(yùn)動,全世界有10億人關(guān)注著足球。隨著球迷對各種足球比賽的關(guān)注度提高,對比賽結(jié)果勝負(fù)的預(yù)測分析方法也越來越多。在信息化大力發(fā)展的今天,傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測方法已經(jīng)無法滿足足球比賽勝負(fù)預(yù)測的需求,而以處理非線性問題能力強(qiáng)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)為代表的新的預(yù)測方法更加受專家學(xué)者的青睞。本文以中超聯(lián)賽比賽為研究對象,通過建立BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,使用歷史數(shù)據(jù)對足球比賽勝負(fù)的預(yù)測,并完成了中超比賽勝負(fù)預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的原型的開發(fā)。具體研究內(nèi)容包含以下幾個方面:第一,對足球賽事預(yù)測的應(yīng)用背景、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法研究與應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀以及足球賽事預(yù)測相關(guān)研究做了描述;第二,分析了影響足球比賽勝負(fù)的因素,并總結(jié)了BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)算法在足球賽事預(yù)測應(yīng)用中的適用性;第三,詳細(xì)設(shè)計(jì)了一個適合足球比賽勝負(fù)預(yù)測的三層結(jié)構(gòu)BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,運(yùn)用java網(wǎng)頁抓取技術(shù)獲取中超比賽歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了算法測試;第四,通過系統(tǒng)需求分析,完成了對系統(tǒng)總體的設(shè)計(jì)以及數(shù)據(jù)庫的設(shè)計(jì);最后,以java語言為基礎(chǔ)語言,開發(fā)了中超比賽勝負(fù)預(yù)測系統(tǒng)的原型。相對于傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測方法,使用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測的精度有了很大提高,體現(xiàn)了BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在足球比賽勝負(fù)預(yù)測領(lǐng)域的實(shí)用性。通過使用現(xiàn)有的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了測試,平均準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)到了66.5%。
[Abstract]:Football is the first sport in the world, with 1 billion people watching it all over the world. With the increasing attention of fans to various football matches, there are more and more methods to predict the outcome of football matches. With the rapid development of information technology, the traditional forecasting method can not meet the demand of football match success and defeat prediction, and the new forecasting method represented by BP neural network, which has strong ability to deal with nonlinear problems, is more favored by experts and scholars. This paper takes the CSL match as the research object, establishes the BP neural network model, uses the historical data to predict the football match victories and defeats, and completes the development of the prototype of the Chinese Super League match victories and defeats prediction system. The specific research contents include the following aspects: firstly, the application background of football match prediction, the research and application status of BP neural network algorithm and the related research of football match prediction are described. Secondly, it analyzes the factors that affect the success and defeat of football match, and summarizes the applicability of BP neural network algorithm in the prediction of football match. Thirdly, a three-layer structure BP neural network model is designed in detail, which is suitable for the prediction of football match victories and defeats, and the algorithm test is carried out by using java page capture technology to obtain the history data of Chinese Super League match. Fourthly, through the analysis of system requirements, the overall design of the system and the design of the database are completed. Finally, the prototype of the prediction system for the victory and defeat of the Chinese Super League is developed based on the java language. Compared with the traditional prediction method, the prediction accuracy of BP neural network has been greatly improved, which shows the practicability of BP neural network in the prediction of football match victories and defeats. Using the available data, the average accuracy was 66.5%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TP311.52;TP183

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