本文選題：航班準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)率 + 關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則��； 參考：《中國(guó)民航大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：航班準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)率直接體現(xiàn)著民航行業(yè)的服務(wù)質(zhì)量,尤其對(duì)于大型繁忙樞紐機(jī)場(chǎng),保障航班的準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)率更是一項(xiàng)艱巨而繁重的任務(wù)。隨著旅客吞吐量的日益增大,國(guó)內(nèi)外大型樞紐機(jī)場(chǎng)都試圖通過(guò)引入航班協(xié)同決策系統(tǒng)來(lái)提升航班的協(xié)同保障能力,它在一定程度上改善了航班保障流程、提升了旅客服務(wù)質(zhì)量,但其缺乏對(duì)航班保障過(guò)程中關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)的實(shí)時(shí)智能預(yù)警。針對(duì)這一問(wèn)題,本文借助關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則算法,挖掘和分析協(xié)同決策系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的海量航班保障數(shù)據(jù),以發(fā)現(xiàn)航班保障過(guò)程中各關(guān)鍵保障環(huán)節(jié)與航班延誤之間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,為新一代具有航班保障態(tài)勢(shì)感知及延誤預(yù)警功能的協(xié)同決策系統(tǒng)提供技術(shù)及理論支撐。為此,主要研究工作有:首先,開(kāi)展了基于關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則的航班協(xié)同保障數(shù)據(jù)知識(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)的研究,提取協(xié)同決策系統(tǒng)在航班保障過(guò)程中生成的原始數(shù)據(jù),并結(jié)合航班保障的業(yè)務(wù)流程來(lái)定義航班協(xié)同保障屬性,提取航班協(xié)同保障過(guò)程中各個(gè)關(guān)鍵保障環(huán)節(jié)完成時(shí)間偏離值之間及其與航班放行狀態(tài)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則;其次,研究基于關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則挖掘的航班保障態(tài)勢(shì)感知及延誤預(yù)警方法,采用Apriori算法對(duì)航班協(xié)同保障數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則挖掘。根據(jù)所確定的各個(gè)關(guān)鍵保障環(huán)節(jié)實(shí)際完成和預(yù)計(jì)完成時(shí)間的偏離值與航班延誤狀態(tài)的對(duì)應(yīng)閾值,提出一種基于航班保障各環(huán)節(jié)實(shí)際完成時(shí)間與預(yù)計(jì)完成時(shí)間偏離值分析的航班延誤預(yù)警方法;再次,提出一種面向新一代智能協(xié)同決策系統(tǒng)的航班協(xié)同保障評(píng)價(jià)模型,模型包括以時(shí)間段內(nèi)機(jī)場(chǎng)所有航班的進(jìn)港時(shí)間平均偏離值、出港時(shí)間平均偏離值、保障完成時(shí)間平均偏離值、目標(biāo)撤輪擋時(shí)間準(zhǔn)確率和計(jì)算起飛時(shí)間準(zhǔn)確率為核心的指標(biāo)體系。通過(guò)采用關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則挖掘確定各指標(biāo)對(duì)航班協(xié)同保障及航班延誤影響的閾值,結(jié)合模糊層次分析法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)機(jī)場(chǎng)、航空公司、空管等相關(guān)單位在航班保障過(guò)程中的協(xié)同狀況做出評(píng)價(jià),得到最終評(píng)價(jià)量級(jí),評(píng)估航班保障各參與方的運(yùn)行效率。最后,采用國(guó)內(nèi)某樞紐機(jī)場(chǎng)航班運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行仿真。結(jié)果表明,關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則用于分析航班協(xié)同保障數(shù)據(jù)能夠得到較為理想的結(jié)果,所建立的模型也具有良好的適用性。
[Abstract]:Flight punctuality directly reflects the service quality of civil aviation industry, especially for large busy hub airports, ensuring flight punctuality is an arduous and arduous task. With the increasing of passenger throughput, domestic and foreign large hub airports are trying to introduce flight coordination decision-making system to enhance the ability of flight coordination support, which to a certain extent improves the flight support process, and improves the quality of passenger service. But it lacks the real-time intelligent early warning of the key links in the flight guarantee process. Aiming at this problem, this paper uses association rules algorithm to mine and analyze the massive flight guarantee data generated by cooperative decision making system, in order to discover the relationship between the key guarantee links and flight delay in the flight guarantee process. It provides technical and theoretical support for a new generation of cooperative decision system with the functions of flight support situation awareness and delay warning. For this reason, the main research work is as follows: firstly, the research on knowledge discovery of flight coordination support data based on association rules is carried out, and the original data generated by cooperative decision system in the process of flight guarantee is extracted. And combined with the business process of flight support to define the attributes of flight coordination support, and extract the key guarantees in the process of flight guarantee between the completion time deviation and between the flight release status between the association rules; secondly, Based on association rule mining, this paper studies the situation awareness and delay warning method of flight support, and uses Apriori algorithm to mine the association rules of flight cooperative support data. According to the corresponding threshold between the actual completion and expected completion time deviation of each key safeguard link and the flight delay status, This paper proposes a flight delay early warning method based on the analysis of the deviation between the actual completion time and the expected completion time of each link of flight guarantee. Thirdly, a new generation of intelligent cooperative decision system is proposed to evaluate the flight coordination guarantee. The model includes an index system with the average departure time of all flights in the airport during the time period, the average departure value of the departure time, the average deviation value of the guaranteed completion time, the accuracy rate of the take-off time of the target and the accuracy rate of calculating the take-off time. By using association rules mining to determine the threshold value of the impact of each index on flight coordination guarantee and flight delay, combined with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the airport, airlines, Air traffic control and other related units in the process of flight security to make an evaluation of the coordination situation, get the final evaluation order of magnitude, to evaluate the efficiency of the flight security participants. Finally, the flight operation data of a domestic hub airport are simulated. The results show that the association rules can be used to analyze the flight coordination guarantee data and the proposed model has good applicability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)民航大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TP311.13
，

本文編號(hào)：2043682