【摘要】：在氣候變暖日益加劇,全球范圍極端干旱事件頻發(fā)的大背景下,干旱越來(lái)越受到水文學(xué)家、氣象學(xué)家、農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)家的廣泛關(guān)注。賈魯河流域位于河南省中東部,是河南省糧棉生產(chǎn)基地之一,也是重度和中度干旱易發(fā)區(qū),干旱災(zāi)害已成為當(dāng)?shù)丶Z食安全的主要威脅之一。本文以淮河支流賈魯河控制流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū)域,在分析研究區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)條件和農(nóng)業(yè)干旱成因的基礎(chǔ)上,選取土壤相對(duì)濕度為農(nóng)業(yè)干旱評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),評(píng)價(jià)了賈魯河流域1992-2008年的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱時(shí)空演變特征和周期演變規(guī)律;同時(shí)基于DEM數(shù)據(jù)、土地利用數(shù)據(jù)、土壤類型數(shù)據(jù)及水文氣象數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建了SWAT模型,模擬了賈魯河流域2009-2014年農(nóng)業(yè)干旱過(guò)程;通過(guò)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱模擬結(jié)果與歷史干旱事件的對(duì)比,驗(yàn)證了SWAT模型對(duì)賈魯河流域農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的模擬效果。主要研究成果如下:(1)賈魯河流域內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱發(fā)生頻率高,季節(jié)性特征明顯,流域內(nèi)發(fā)生春旱和夏伏旱的頻率較高,秋旱也是主要的干旱類型之一,其發(fā)生頻率低于春旱和夏伏旱;降水與10-20cm土層土壤相對(duì)濕度在0.05置信水平上顯著相關(guān),土壤相對(duì)濕度既能夠較全面的反映降水在干旱形成過(guò)程中的影響,又能較直觀的表現(xiàn)作物受旱情況,是評(píng)估賈魯河流域農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的較合適的干旱指標(biāo)。(2)賈魯河流域初春、春末夏初、伏期和秋季土壤相對(duì)濕度年際變化均表現(xiàn)出9年左右的周期變化規(guī)律,流域中上游周期信號(hào)穩(wěn)定,周期變化尺度多樣,下游周期變化尺度單一。流域內(nèi)初春旱和春末夏初旱的頻次較伏旱和秋旱高,上游和下游春末夏初旱的發(fā)生頻次高于初春旱,中游發(fā)生初春旱的頻率較高,中上游旱情比下游旱情嚴(yán)重;1992年、1995年和2000年流域中上游發(fā)生了持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)、旱情嚴(yán)重的春夏連旱,中游旱情延續(xù)至秋季。(3)賈魯河流域上游地區(qū)發(fā)生春末夏初旱的頻率最高,其次為初春旱,秋旱發(fā)生頻率低于初春旱發(fā)生頻率,伏旱發(fā)生頻率最低;中游地區(qū)發(fā)生初春旱的頻率最高,其次為春末夏初旱,伏旱發(fā)生頻率低于春末夏初旱發(fā)生頻率,秋旱發(fā)生頻率最低;下游地區(qū)發(fā)生春末夏初旱的頻率最高,其次為初春旱,伏旱和秋旱發(fā)生頻率相當(dāng),低于初春旱發(fā)生頻率。(4)基于SWAT模型的區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)干旱模擬對(duì)2009-2014年的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱事件模擬效果良好,農(nóng)業(yè)旱情評(píng)估結(jié)果與歷史農(nóng)業(yè)干旱事件基本吻合;同時(shí),典型代表年模擬與實(shí)測(cè)的土壤相對(duì)濕度空間分布基本一致,能夠更細(xì)致地反映農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的空間分布特征,可進(jìn)一步應(yīng)用于研究區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)干旱的預(yù)測(cè)研究。
[Abstract]:Against the background of increasing global warming and frequent extreme drought events, drought has attracted more and more attention from hydrologists, meteorologists and agricultural scientists. The Jaru River Basin is located in the central and eastern part of Henan Province. It is one of the grain and cotton production bases in Henan Province and is also a severe and moderate drought-prone area. Drought disaster has become one of the main threats to local food security. Based on the analysis of the agricultural conditions and the causes of agricultural drought, the relative humidity of soil is selected as the evaluation index of agricultural drought in this paper, which is based on the study area of the Jialu River control basin, a tributary of the Huaihe River. The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and periodic evolution of agricultural drought in the Jaru River Basin from 1992 to 2008 were evaluated. At the same time, based on DEM data, land use data, soil type data and hydrometeorological data, a SWAT model was constructed to simulate the agricultural drought process in the Jaru River Basin from 2009 to 2014. By comparing the results of agricultural drought simulation with historical drought events, the simulation effect of SWAT model on agricultural drought in the Jaru River Basin was verified. The main research results are as follows: (1) the frequency of agricultural drought in the Jaru River basin is high, the seasonal characteristics are obvious, the frequency of spring drought and summer drought is high, and autumn drought is one of the main drought types. The frequency of occurrence of drought is lower than that of spring drought and summer drought. There was a significant correlation between precipitation and soil relative humidity in 10-20cm soil layer at the confidence level of 0. 05. The soil relative humidity could not only reflect the effect of precipitation on the formation of drought, but also show the drought situation of crops intuitively. (2) the interannual variation of soil relative humidity in early spring, late spring, early spring and early summer and autumn showed a regular cycle of about 9 years. The period signal of the middle and upper reaches of the river basin is stable, the scale of periodic variation is various, and the scale of downstream cycle variation is single. The frequency of early spring drought and early spring drought in late spring and early summer is higher than that in late spring and autumn. The frequency of drought in upper and lower spring is higher than that in early spring. The frequency of early spring drought in middle reaches is higher than that in lower reaches. The drought in upper and upper reaches is more serious than that in lower reaches. In 1992, 1995 and 2000, a long duration of drought occurred in the upper and middle reaches of the basin, with severe drought in spring and summer and drought in the middle reaches into autumn. (3) the frequency of drought in the upper reaches of the Jaru River Basin was the highest in late spring and early summer, followed by the first spring drought. The frequency of autumn drought is lower than that of early spring drought, and the frequency of summer drought is the lowest. In the middle reaches, the frequency of early spring drought is the highest, followed by late spring and early summer drought, the frequency of drought occurrence is lower than that of late spring and early summer, and the frequency of autumn drought is the lowest. The frequency of drought in the lower reaches is the highest in late spring and early summer, followed by the first spring drought, and the frequency of drought in autumn is the same as that in autumn. (4) Regional agricultural drought simulation based on SWAT model has a good effect on simulating agricultural drought events in 2009-2014, and the results of agricultural drought assessment are basically consistent with historical agricultural drought events. At the same time, the spatial distribution of soil relative humidity in typical representative years is basically consistent with the measured soil relative humidity, which can reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural drought more carefully, and can be further applied to the prediction of agricultural drought in the study area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：S423

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