【摘要】：降水是中國(guó)西北干旱區(qū)水資源的重要組成部分,利用合理方法有效認(rèn)識(shí)降水的區(qū)域變化規(guī)律對(duì)指導(dǎo)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展尤為重要�；诒苯�42個(gè)氣象站1961—2012年降水序列數(shù)據(jù),從氣候時(shí)間序列中提取氣候信號(hào)中各個(gè)尺度的變化,對(duì)北疆過(guò)去52a來(lái)的降水進(jìn)行多尺度分析,并對(duì)其空間差異進(jìn)行了初步探討。結(jié)果表明:過(guò)去52a北疆降水量存在明顯的年際和年代尺度的變化,年際尺度的周期為5a和8a,年代尺度的周期為10a和30a。變化趨勢(shì)上,降水量1985s之前呈減少趨勢(shì),在1985s之后呈增加趨勢(shì),且后期的增幅大于前期的減幅。突變分析表明北疆年降水量呈增加趨勢(shì)。集合經(jīng)驗(yàn)?zāi)B(tài)分解(EEMD)是一種適用于非線性、非平穩(wěn)序列的信號(hào)分析方法,將EEMD應(yīng)用于氣候要素時(shí)間序列,可提取可靠真實(shí)的氣候變化信號(hào),同時(shí),EEMD可以得到氣候變化的固有時(shí)間尺度。
[Abstract]:Precipitation is an important part of water resources in arid areas of northwest China. It is very important to use reasonable methods to understand the regional variation of precipitation in order to guide the development of agriculture. Based on the precipitation sequence data of 42 meteorological stations in Northern Xinjiang during 1961-2012, the variations of climate signals in various scales were extracted from the climatic time series, and the precipitation in the past 52 years in Northern Xinjiang was analyzed by multi-scale analysis, and the spatial differences were preliminarily discussed. The results show that there are obvious interannual and decadal variations of precipitation in Northern Xinjiang in the past 52 years. The periods of interannual scale and decadal scale are 5a and 8a, and the periods of decadal scale are 10a and 30a respectively. The precipitation decreased before 1985s and increased after 1985s, and the increase in the latter stage was larger than that in the earlier period. The abrupt change analysis shows that the annual precipitation in Northern Xinjiang is increasing. Set empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is a signal analysis method suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary sequences. EEMD is applied to the time series of climate elements to extract reliable and real climate change signals. At the same time, the inherent time scale of climate change can be obtained by EEMD.
【作者單位】： 新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)草業(yè)與環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)院;中國(guó)科學(xué)院東北地理與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家國(guó)際科技合作計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2010DFA92720-13) 新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)土壤學(xué)重點(diǎn)學(xué)科項(xiàng)目
【分類號(hào)】：S161.6

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