【摘要】：利用線性分析和灰色關聯(lián)分析法,分析了1970-2014年江西省主要氣象災害的時空演變,及其對主要農作物總產量影響的大小及各項ENSO特征指數(shù)對總受災面積的影響。結果表明:(1)受災率在30%以下的發(fā)生概率比較高,達86.67%。受災率每10 a增加2.858%,成災率則每10 a增加1.639%。其中,洪澇、低溫、風雹、旱災受災率每10 a分別增加2.244%,-0.034%,1.049%和0.59%。(2)對主要農作物總產量影響大小依次為洪澇低溫風雹旱災。(3)洪澇災害主要分布在贛東北、贛北贛中地區(qū),區(qū)域性和階段性干旱嚴重,主要出現(xiàn)在中南部,旱災受災率總體呈北少南多的區(qū)域分布特征。(4)ENSO特征值對農業(yè)氣象災害受災面積的影響大小總體上表現(xiàn)為Nino 1+2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4,其中Nino 1+2和Nino 3區(qū)海溫距平對江西省的農業(yè)氣象災害影響最大,應予以重點監(jiān)測。
[Abstract]:By using linear analysis and grey correlation analysis, the temporal and spatial evolution of major meteorological disasters in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2014, the magnitude of their influence on the total yield of main crops and the influence of each ENSO characteristic index on the total disaster area were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) the probability of occurrence of the disaster rate below 30% is 86.67. The disaster rate increased 2.858% every 10 years, and the disaster rate increased 1.639 9% every 10 years. Among them, flood, low temperature, wind hail and drought disaster rate increased by 2.244% -0.034% and 0.59% respectively every 10 years. (2) the influence on the total yield of main crops was flood, low temperature, wind, hail and drought. (3) the flood and waterlogging disaster mainly distributed in northeast Jiangxi and central Jiangxi province. Regional and periodic droughts are severe, mainly in the south-central part of the country. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on the area affected by agrometeorological disaster is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 1 2 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly on agriculture in Jiangxi Province. (4) the drought disaster rate is generally more regional distribution. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on agricultural meteorological disaster area is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 12 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly to agriculture of Jiangxi Province. Industrial meteorological disasters have the greatest impact, Emphasis should be placed on monitoring.
【作者單位】： 江西省農業(yè)科學院農業(yè)經濟與信息研究所;南昌縣土壤肥料站;
【基金】：農業(yè)部農村經濟研究中心基金項目 江西省農科院科技創(chuàng)新及成果轉化基金項目(2013CJJ010)~~
【分類號】：S42

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