【摘要】：安徽省是重要的糧食產區(qū),在保障我國糧食安全中發(fā)揮著重要作用,研究該省氣候生產潛力的演變特征,面向糧食安全分析其氣候承載力具有顯著的現實意義。本文從糧食生產與光溫水等氣候因子的關系出發(fā),采用逐級訂正的方法計算了安徽省的氣候生產潛力及其變化特征,并根據不同生活水平下的糧食需求指標,分析了安徽省的氣候承載力和剩余空間。結果表明,安徽省氣候生產潛力的地理分異特征顯著,其中北部高于南部、平原高于山區(qū),高值區(qū)主要集中在沿淮及淮北地區(qū),與耕種條件配合較好,有利于生產潛力的發(fā)揮。1961~2013年全省氣候生產潛力基本呈一致下降趨勢,近50年平均減少了約10%。安徽省目前糧食消費水平和結構屬溫飽型向小康型過渡階段,在充分發(fā)揮氣候生產潛力的前提下,全省氣候資源所能承載的糧食產量均顯著超過不同生活水平下的總需求量。小康水平下,氣候承載力的相對剩余率總體呈東北向西南遞減的趨勢,除部分城市地區(qū)和山區(qū)外,全省大部地區(qū)氣候承載力的剩余空間仍較富裕,能夠較好的保障糧食需求�？偟膩砜�,由于安徽省光溫水以及耕地等條件配合較好,氣候承載力較高;雖然受太陽輻射影響,近年來氣候生產潛力下降,但在保障未來小康社會的糧食安全方面,安徽省仍具有較好的氣候承載力,糧食生產還有較大的提升空間。
[Abstract]:Anhui Province is an important grain producing area, which plays an important role in ensuring the food security in China. It is of great practical significance to study the evolution characteristics of the climatic production potential of Anhui Province and to analyze its climate carrying capacity in the face of grain security. Based on the relationship between grain production and climatic factors, such as light, temperature and water, this paper calculates the climatic production potential and its changing characteristics of Anhui Province by using the method of step by step correction, and according to the grain demand index under different living standards, The climate bearing capacity and remaining space of Anhui Province are analyzed. The results show that the climatic potential of Anhui Province is distinguished by geographical differentiation, in which the northern part is higher than the south, the plain is higher than the mountainous area, and the high value area is mainly located along the Huaihe River and the Huaibei region, which is in good harmony with the cultivation conditions. The climatic production potential of the province from 1961 to 2013 showed a decreasing trend, which decreased by about 10. 5% in the last 50 years. At present, the grain consumption level and structure of Anhui Province belong to the transition period from the type of food and clothing to the type of Xiao Kang. On the premise of giving full play to the potential of climate production, the grain output that the climatic resources can carry in Anhui Province is significantly higher than the total demand under different living standards. At the well-off level, the relative residual rate of climate carrying capacity is decreasing from northeast to southwest. Except for some urban areas and mountainous areas, the remaining space of climate carrying capacity in most areas of the province is still relatively rich, which can better ensure the food demand. On the whole, due to the better coordination of light, warm water and cultivated land in Anhui Province, the climate bearing capacity is relatively high. Although the climate production potential has declined in recent years due to the influence of solar radiation, it is in terms of ensuring food security in a well-off society in the future. Anhui Province still has a good climate bearing capacity, grain production has a greater room for improvement.
【作者單位】： 安徽省氣候中心;安徽省大氣科學與衛(wèi)星遙感重點實驗室;
【基金】：中國氣象局氣候變化專項(CCSF201507);中國氣象局青年英才計劃 中國清潔發(fā)展機制基金贈款項目(2013028) 安徽省氣象局創(chuàng)新團隊建設計劃~~
【分類號】：S162

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 盧燕宇;田紅;魯俊;溫華洋;;近50年安徽省太陽總輻射的時空變化特征[J];氣象科技;2016年05期

2 姜大川;肖偉華;范晨媛;宮博亞;;武漢城市圈水資源及水環(huán)境承載力分析[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2016年05期

3 張強;馬芳;王鶯;宋連春;馬鵬里;;淺論氣候容量及其對氣候安全風險管理的作用[J];地球科學進展;2015年06期

4 葛亞寧;劉洛;徐新良;張學霞;袁蘭蘭;張曉峰;;近50a氣候變化背景下我國玉米生產潛力時空演變特征[J];自然資源學報;2015年05期

5 王艷君;高超;王安乾;王豫燕;張飛躍;翟建青;李修倉;蘇布達;;中國暴雨洪澇災害的暴露度與脆弱性時空變化特征[J];氣候變化研究進展;2014年06期

6 謝立勇;李悅;徐玉秀;趙迅;宋艷玲;姜彤;林而達;;氣候變化對農業(yè)生產與糧食安全影響的新認知[J];氣候變化研究進展;2014年04期

7 孫懿慧;賀立源;;基于GIS的湖北省水稻生產潛力研究[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2012年10期

8 曹志宏;陳志超;郝晉珉;;中國城鄉(xiāng)居民食品消費變化趨勢分析[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2012年10期

9 唐華俊;李哲敏;;基于中國居民平衡膳食模式的人均糧食需求量研究[J];中國農業(yè)科學;2012年11期

10 許瑩;馬曉群;吳文玉;;氣候變化對安徽省主要農作物水分供需狀況的影響[J];氣候變化研究進展;2012年03期

相關碩士學位論文 前2條

1 王東杰;我國城鎮(zhèn)不同收入階層居民食物消費結構升級研究[D];中國農業(yè)科學院;2012年

2 陳楷根;區(qū)域環(huán)境承載力理論及其應用[D];福建師范大學;2002年

【共引文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 閆勝軍;王p，

本文編號：2172245