本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)工程 + 水利工程　； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水利是農(nóng)業(yè)的命脈,水利工程投資規(guī)模的大小、水利工程的工程管理和科學(xué)運(yùn)用,可以更大的發(fā)揮現(xiàn)有水資源的實(shí)際效益。水利工程的興建和工程管理是保障農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)安全、加快農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)條件。特別是在水資源缺乏條件下,水利工程滿足農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和需要等問(wèn)題直接會(huì)影響農(nóng)業(yè)抵御自然災(zāi)害能力和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率及生產(chǎn)效益。目前,在國(guó)家加快城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的背景下,出現(xiàn)一個(gè)新的問(wèn)題就是耕地面積減少,耕地質(zhì)量變差,這已嚴(yán)重威脅我國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)糧食生產(chǎn)安全,并且在國(guó)家大力發(fā)展水利工程的背景下,研究水利工程興建條件下農(nóng)業(yè)工程生產(chǎn)投資效益是十分迫切與必要的。陜西省關(guān)中地區(qū)屬于半干旱半濕潤(rùn)地區(qū),水資源緊缺。水利工程的投資建設(shè)很大程度上影響著該區(qū)域的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)。因此,本文選取關(guān)中地區(qū)1978～2013年的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)及水利工程興建的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行以下研究:第一,分析關(guān)中地區(qū)水利、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)條件及其他農(nóng)業(yè)投資現(xiàn)狀、農(nóng)業(yè)糧食產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)情況;第二,采用主成分分析法分析投建水利工程所增加的有效灌溉面積及旱澇保濕面積及農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)所需要的耕地、化肥、農(nóng)藥、人力等投入對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的影響程度,得出作用農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的主成分因素;第三,建立主成分回歸模型分析水利投資及其他投入對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)工程生產(chǎn)投資效益的影響作用與影響機(jī)理;第四,分析在水利工程興建條件下關(guān)中地區(qū)糧食安全狀況。通過(guò)研究,得出主要結(jié)論有:(1)從基礎(chǔ)條件來(lái)看,關(guān)中地區(qū)水資源短缺,但地勢(shì)平坦,總體上較適合糧食生產(chǎn)。從農(nóng)業(yè)投入來(lái)看,水利投資一直處于增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),至今有效灌溉率達(dá)到43.46%,但耕地面積一直在減少,農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械、用電量、農(nóng)藥、化肥、農(nóng)用薄膜等農(nóng)業(yè)投入一直處于增加趨勢(shì)。從受災(zāi)情況來(lái)看,關(guān)中地區(qū)糧食受災(zāi)面積一直處于波動(dòng)狀態(tài),糧食受災(zāi)率及成災(zāi)率分別平均超過(guò)播種面積的50%與28%。從糧食波動(dòng)情況來(lái)看,關(guān)中地區(qū)糧食生產(chǎn)一直處于波動(dòng)狀態(tài),且波動(dòng)幅度較大,波動(dòng)頻率高。(2)主成分分析結(jié)果表明,影響關(guān)中地區(qū)糧食產(chǎn)量的主成分有四個(gè),累計(jì)方差為91.849%,第一主成分主要由有效水利灌溉面積、受災(zāi)面積、主要農(nóng)作物播種面積、成災(zāi)面積、耕地面積組成,方差貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)到55.351%;第二主成分主要由農(nóng)林牧漁就業(yè)人數(shù)、(1)旱澇保收面積、農(nóng)業(yè)化肥施用折純量、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力、農(nóng)村用電量組成,貢獻(xiàn)率為25.033%;第三主成分主要由農(nóng)藥使用量組成,貢獻(xiàn)率為6.745%;第四主成分主要由農(nóng)用塑料薄膜使用量組成,貢獻(xiàn)率為4.720%�？梢钥闯�,水利投資在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中占有重要的地位。(2)從主成分回歸結(jié)果看,關(guān)中地區(qū)水利工工程、耕地等農(nóng)業(yè)投資對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益都有著不同程度的影響。水利投資形成的有效灌溉面積與旱澇保濕面積彈性系數(shù)表現(xiàn)出正負(fù)交替現(xiàn)象,有效灌溉面積彈性系數(shù)在1980～1984 (-0.24)、1995～1999 (-0.63)年呈負(fù)值,有著比較明顯的阻礙農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益提高的現(xiàn)象,而在1985～1989(0.15)、1990～1994(0.20)、2005～2009 (0.56)、2009～2013 (0.23)這四個(gè)階段年則處于正值,促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益提高。旱澇保濕面積彈性系數(shù)只有在2000～2004 (-0.34)年這個(gè)階段處于負(fù)值,其他階段年處于正值。關(guān)中地區(qū)其他農(nóng)業(yè)投入平均彈性系數(shù)分別為耕地(-0.8365)和勞動(dòng)力投入(-0.1407)為負(fù)值,農(nóng)用化肥(0.8342)、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械(0.1006)及農(nóng)用塑料薄膜(0.0016)為正值,早期農(nóng)村用電量(-17.2787)的平均彈性系數(shù)為負(fù)值,之后一直為正值(1.4313、1.0308、0.5814、0.1727、0.1910、1.0381) ; 2009年前農(nóng)藥的投入對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的促進(jìn)作用非常大,2009年之后對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有嚴(yán)重的阻礙作用。(1)關(guān)中地區(qū)多數(shù)年份的糧食生產(chǎn)處于安全等級(jí),部分年份的糧食生產(chǎn)處于基本安全級(jí),個(gè)別年份的糧食生產(chǎn)處于臨界安全級(jí)。說(shuō)明關(guān)中地區(qū)在水利工程興建條件下糧食生產(chǎn)總體上呈安全態(tài)勢(shì),關(guān)中地區(qū)的水利、耕地、化肥等農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)投資對(duì)糧食生產(chǎn)是有極大的促進(jìn)作用的。
[Abstract]:Water conservancy is the lifeblood of agriculture, the size of investment in water conservancy projects, the engineering management and scientific application of water conservancy projects can give full play to the actual benefits of the existing water resources. The construction and management of water conservancy projects are the important material conditions for ensuring the safety of agricultural production and accelerating the development of agricultural modernization. Under the background of accelerating the development of urbanization, a new problem is that the area of cultivated land is reduced and the quality of cultivated land is worse, which has seriously threatened the agricultural grain production in China. Under the background of the country's vigorous development of water conservancy projects, it is very urgent and necessary to study the investment benefit of agricultural engineering production under the construction of water conservancy projects. The Guanzhong area of Shaanxi province belongs to the semi arid and semi humid area, and the water resources are scarce. The investment and construction of water conservancy projects greatly affect the agricultural production in this area. In this paper, the relevant data of 1978~2013 years' agricultural production and water conservancy projects in Guanzhong area are selected to carry out the following research. First, the paper analyzes the water conservancy in Guanzhong area, the basic conditions of agricultural production, the status of other agricultural investment, the fluctuation of agricultural grain production, and the second, the analysis method of principal component analysis is used to analyze the increase of the construction of water conservancy projects. The effect of irrigation area, the moisture area of drought and waterlogging, the influence of agricultural production, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, manpower and so on on agricultural production, and the main component factors of agricultural production; third, establish the principal component regression model to analyze the influence and influence of water investment and other investment on the investment benefit of agricultural engineering production The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the basis of the basic conditions, the water resources shortage in Guanzhong area is short, but the land is flat, it is more suitable for grain production in general. From the point of view of agricultural investment, water investment has been in the trend of growth, and the effective irrigation rate has reached up to now. To 43.46%, but the area of cultivated land has been decreasing, agricultural machinery, electricity consumption, pesticide, chemical fertilizer, agricultural film and other agricultural inputs have been increasing. From the situation of disaster, the area of grain disaster in Guanzhong area has been fluctuating, the average grain disaster rate and disaster rate are more than 50% of the sown area and 28%. from the grain fluctuation situation. The grain production in Guanzhong area has been fluctuating, and the fluctuation range is large and the fluctuation frequency is high. (2) the principal component analysis results show that there are four main components affecting grain production in Guanzhong area, the cumulative variance is 91.849%, the first principal component mainly consists of the effective irrigation area, the affected area, the main crop sown area, and the disaster area. The contribution rate of arable land is 55.351%, and the contribution rate of variance is up to 55.351%; second main components are mainly agricultural and forestry and herding and fishing employment, (1) the area of drought and water logging, agricultural chemical fertilizer application, total power of agricultural machinery, and rural electricity consumption, the contribution rate is 25.033%; third main components are composed of pesticide use, the contribution rate is 6.745%; fourth principal component main. In order to make up the use of agricultural plastic film, the contribution rate of 4.720%. can be seen that water conservancy investment occupies an important position in agricultural production. (2) from the results of the principal component regression, the agricultural investment in Guanzhong area and the agricultural investment have different influence on the agricultural production efficiency. The effective irrigation area and the effective irrigation area formed by water conservancy investment The elasticity coefficient of moisture area of drought and flood shows positive and negative alternation, the elastic coefficient of effective irrigation area is negative in 1980~1984 (-0.24) and 1995~1999 (-0.63) year, and there is a obvious phenomenon that hinders the improvement of agricultural production efficiency, while in 1985~1989 (0.15), 1990~1994 (0.20), 2005~2009 (0.56), 2009~2013 (0.23), 2009~2013 (0.23)) The average elasticity coefficient of wet area of drought and flood is only in negative value at this stage of 2000~2004 (-0.34), and the average elastic coefficient of other agricultural inputs in Guanzhong area is negative for cultivated land (-0.8365) and labor power input (-0.1407), agricultural fertilizer (0.8342), agriculture, respectively. The industrial machinery (0.1006) and the agricultural plastic film (0.0016) are positive. The average elastic coefficient of the early rural electricity consumption (-17.2787) is negative and has always been positive (1.4313,1.0308,0.5814,0.1727,0.1910,1.0381). The input of the pesticide to agricultural production before 2009 is very large, and the agricultural production is seriously hindered after 2009. (1) the grain production in most of the years in Guanzhong area is in the safety grade, the grain production in some years is in the basic safety grade and the grain production in a few years is at the critical safety level. It shows that the grain production in Guanzhong area is generally safe under the construction of water conservancy projects, and the agricultural production of water conservancy, cultivated land and chemical fertilizer in Guanzhong area. Investment plays a great role in promoting grain production.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.213

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