本文選題：大豆 + 氣候變化　； 參考：《上海應(yīng)用技術(shù)學(xué)院》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：大豆是我國主要的油料作物,目前我國大豆自給率較低,對(duì)外依存度連年升高,存在嚴(yán)重的供需矛盾。氣候變化將會(huì)改變我國的氣候資源狀況,直接影響我國大豆生長發(fā)育、種植模式、種植布局、生產(chǎn)潛力等,因此客觀準(zhǔn)確地評(píng)價(jià)氣候變化對(duì)我國大豆生產(chǎn)的影響,采取有效的適應(yīng)措施充分利用氣候資源,趨利避害,對(duì)提高中國大豆自給率、保障油料安全具有重大意義。本研究基于1981-2011年我國大豆主產(chǎn)區(qū)的站點(diǎn)觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),將站點(diǎn)尺度的作物生長機(jī)理模型DSSAT(decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer)和土地生產(chǎn)力模型AEZ(Agricultural Ecology Zone)有機(jī)融合。利用作物機(jī)理模型DSSAT模擬得到我國本土大豆品種參數(shù),基于ArcGIS將站點(diǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)基于耕作區(qū)分布進(jìn)行空間升尺度。將DSSAT模型的模擬數(shù)據(jù)擴(kuò)充并改進(jìn)AEZ模型原有大豆的品種庫參數(shù),調(diào)整AEZ模型的模擬方法,建立適合評(píng)估我國大豆生產(chǎn)的China-AEZ模型,模擬未來氣候變化對(duì)我國大豆生產(chǎn)潛力的變化,同時(shí)基于AEZ模型生產(chǎn)潛力的模擬能力分析未來氣候變化下我國大豆生產(chǎn)的適應(yīng)技術(shù)。本研究得到的結(jié)果：從空間尺度上及時(shí)間尺度上來看,DSSAT模型對(duì)我國大豆生長發(fā)育具有較好的模擬能力；基于DSSAT模型的模擬結(jié)果和大豆觀測(cè)值改進(jìn)后的China-AEZ模型對(duì)我國大豆主產(chǎn)區(qū)的區(qū)域模擬能力得到了較大的提高�？傮w來看,氣候變化影響下,我國大豆總產(chǎn)減少1467千噸,適宜面積增加4700千公頃,平均生產(chǎn)潛力減少137kg/ha。區(qū)域上來看,氣候變化引起東北地區(qū)大豆增產(chǎn),華北、南方大部分地區(qū)減產(chǎn)。氣候變化下,大豆適宜品種和播期也隨之改變,利用AEZ模型模擬的適應(yīng)播期和品種,更新到DSSAT模型,以此與未使用適應(yīng)播期和品種的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,評(píng)估適應(yīng)播期和品種對(duì)減緩氣候變化對(duì)大豆生產(chǎn)的不利影響的作用。此外,本研究針對(duì)氣候變暖干旱加劇,評(píng)估了灌溉對(duì)大豆生產(chǎn)的增產(chǎn)效益,結(jié)果顯示在干旱、半干旱地區(qū)增產(chǎn)幅度明顯,最高區(qū)域高達(dá)2000kg/ha。
[Abstract]:Soybean is the main oil crop in China. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of soybean in China is low, the degree of external dependence has been increasing for years, and there is a serious contradiction between supply and demand. Climate change will change the situation of climate resources in China, directly affect soybean growth and development, planting pattern, planting layout, production potential and so on. Therefore, the impact of climate change on soybean production in China is evaluated objectively and accurately. It is of great significance to take effective measures to make full use of climate resources and avoid disadvantages in order to improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybean in China and ensure the oil security. Based on the observed data from the main soybean production areas in China from 1981 to 2011, the site-scale crop growth mechanism model DSSAT decision support system for Agrotechnology transfer and the land productivity model AEZ Agricultural Ecology Zone1 were integrated. The crop mechanism model DSSAT was used to simulate the parameters of native soybean varieties in China. Based on ArcGIS, the site data were scaled up based on the distribution of cultivated areas. The simulation data of DSSAT model were expanded and the original soybean variety database parameters of AEZ model were improved, and the simulation method of AEZ model was adjusted to establish China-AEZ model suitable for evaluating soybean production in China, and to simulate the change of future climate change on soybean production potential in China. At the same time, based on the AEZ model production potential simulation ability to analyze the future climate change of soybean production adaptation technology in China. The results of this study are as follows: from the spatial scale and time scale, the DSSAT model has a good ability to simulate the growth and development of soybean in China; The simulation results based on DSSAT model and the improved China-AEZ model have greatly improved the regional simulation ability of soybean production areas in China. As a whole, under the influence of climate change, the total soybean production in China decreased by 1467 kilotons, the suitable area increased by 4 700 thousand hectares, and the average productive potential decreased by 137 kg / ha. Regionally, climate change has caused soybean production in Northeast China, North China and most of the South. Under the climate change, the suitable varieties and sowing dates of soybean were changed, and the suitable sowing dates and varieties simulated by AEZ model were updated to the DSSAT model, so as to compare the results with the results of non-adapted sowing dates and varieties. To evaluate the effects of adaptation to sowing time and varieties on mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on soybean production. In addition, in view of the climate warming and drought exacerbation, the benefit of irrigation on soybean yield was evaluated. The results showed that in arid and semi-arid areas, the yield increase was obvious, and the highest area was as high as 2000kg / ha.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海應(yīng)用技術(shù)學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：S565.1;S162.54

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本文編號(hào)：2026495