本文選題：耕地安全 + 能值理論�。� 參考：《曲阜師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：耕地安全對(duì)保障糧食安全和維護(hù)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定及持續(xù)發(fā)展具有非常重要的意義。山東省是我國(guó)重要的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)省份,若耕地安全得不到有效改善,全省乃至全國(guó)的糧食安全及社會(huì)穩(wěn)定性等將受到威脅。做好耕地安全評(píng)價(jià)及警情分析工作,才能在此基礎(chǔ)上分析影響山東省耕地安全的因素,并采取針對(duì)性措施協(xié)調(diào)人與人、人與自然的關(guān)系,保障耕地安全,實(shí)現(xiàn)耕地的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。依據(jù)耕地安全的含義,本文以耕地?cái)?shù)量安全、質(zhì)量安全及生態(tài)安全作為指標(biāo)體系的準(zhǔn)則層,以涵蓋耕地的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)功能和自然生態(tài)功能的影響因子作為指標(biāo)體系的指標(biāo)層,構(gòu)建了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系框架,其中自然生態(tài)功能在具體指標(biāo)設(shè)置時(shí)考慮的是耕地的自然環(huán)境條件。糧食數(shù)量及質(zhì)量安全均會(huì)對(duì)耕地產(chǎn)生約束作用,在具體指標(biāo)的選取上,由于糧食質(zhì)量安全指標(biāo)的數(shù)據(jù)較難獲得,本文則從糧食數(shù)量安全約束的角度出發(fā)選取、設(shè)置基于糧食安全約束的耕地安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo);以能值理論為基礎(chǔ),將包含要素繁雜的耕地環(huán)境承載力指標(biāo)設(shè)置為能值指標(biāo)。本文在突變理論基礎(chǔ)上,利用突變級(jí)數(shù)模型評(píng)價(jià)了山東省2000-2015年耕地安全,并對(duì)2016-2020年的耕地安全警情作了預(yù)測(cè)。在突變級(jí)數(shù)模型應(yīng)用中,為避免突變級(jí)數(shù)模型對(duì)同級(jí)指標(biāo)重要性排序及指標(biāo)互補(bǔ)性判斷的主觀性影響,本文利用主成分分析法解決同級(jí)指標(biāo)排序問(wèn)題,利用相關(guān)性分析解決指標(biāo)互補(bǔ)性判斷的問(wèn)題。山東省耕地安全評(píng)價(jià)及警情預(yù)測(cè)的分析結(jié)果顯示:山東省耕地安全總體呈下降趨勢(shì),個(gè)別年份出現(xiàn)較大幅度的波動(dòng),2000-2015年間的多個(gè)年份耕地安全處于重警等級(jí)范圍內(nèi),2016-2020年耕地安全持續(xù)下降,并處于巨警等級(jí)內(nèi)。通過(guò)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害、水資源匱乏、農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械投入等是山東省耕地安全出現(xiàn)較大波動(dòng)的主要因素。耕地安全涉及政府、企業(yè)和個(gè)體農(nóng)戶三方利益主體,它們是保障耕地安全體系中的有機(jī)組成部分,任何一方的不作為或有損耕地安全的行為都會(huì)對(duì)耕地安全產(chǎn)生不利影響。本文依據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,從耕地相關(guān)利益主體——政府、企業(yè)和個(gè)體農(nóng)戶三方面出發(fā),提出以下建議:政府應(yīng)發(fā)揮制度保障和政策監(jiān)控功能,完善產(chǎn)權(quán)制度,建立健全農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害管理系統(tǒng),興修農(nóng)業(yè)水利工程;推動(dòng)企業(yè)發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì),通過(guò)建立企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)信用檔案,使耕地污染外部效應(yīng)內(nèi)部化;通過(guò)組織農(nóng)機(jī)“下鄉(xiāng)”活動(dòng)、專業(yè)人員實(shí)地指導(dǎo)等措施提高個(gè)體農(nóng)戶知識(shí)儲(chǔ)備,從而科學(xué)管理耕地。針對(duì)三方主體采取的措施之間形成交錯(cuò)影響,從而形成政府、企業(yè)和個(gè)體農(nóng)戶保障耕地安全的合力。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land security is of great significance to ensure food security and maintain social and economic stability and sustainable development. Shandong Province is an important agricultural province in China. If the security of cultivated land can not be effectively improved, the food security and social stability of the whole province and even the whole country will be threatened. Only by doing well the evaluation of cultivated land security and the analysis of warning situation, can we analyze the factors that affect the security of cultivated land in Shandong Province, and take targeted measures to coordinate the relationship between people, human beings and nature, so as to ensure the safety of cultivated land. To realize the sustainable development of cultivated land. According to the meaning of cultivated land security, this paper takes the quantity safety, quality safety and ecological security of cultivated land as the criterion layer of the index system, and takes the influencing factors of the social economic function and natural ecological function of the cultivated land as the index layer of the index system. The framework of evaluation index system is constructed, in which the natural ecological function takes into account the natural environment condition of cultivated land. Grain quantity and quality and safety will restrict the cultivated land. Because the data of grain quality and safety index is difficult to obtain, this paper selects the grain quantity safety constraint from the point of view of grain quantity security constraint. Based on the theory of emergy, the environmental carrying capacity index of cultivated land is set up as an emergy index. Based on the catastrophe theory, this paper evaluates the cultivated land security in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 by using the catastrophe series model, and forecasts the cultivated land security warning from 2016 to 2020. In the application of the catastrophe series model, in order to avoid the subjective influence of the catastrophe series model on the ranking of the importance and complementarity of the index of the same level, this paper uses the principal component analysis method to solve the problem of ranking the index of the same level. Correlation analysis is used to solve the problem of index complementary judgment. The analysis results of cultivated land safety evaluation and warning forecast in Shandong Province show that the cultivated land security in Shandong Province is in general decreasing. In several years between 2000 and 2015, the cultivated land security was in the range of heavy warning grade, and the cultivated land security continued to decrease in 2016-2020, and was within the huge police grade. Through analysis, it is found that agricultural disasters, water resources shortage and agricultural machinery input are the main factors of the large fluctuation of cultivated land security in Shandong Province. Cultivated land security involves the tripartite interests of the government, enterprises and individual farmers, which are an organic part of the security system of cultivated land. The omission of any party or the behavior that impairs the safety of cultivated land will have a negative impact on the security of cultivated land. Based on the evaluation results, this paper puts forward the following suggestions from three aspects: the government, enterprises and individual farmers: the government should exert the functions of system guarantee and policy monitoring, and perfect the property right system. To establish and improve the agricultural disaster management system, to build agricultural water conservancy projects, to promote enterprises to develop the agricultural economy, to internalize the external effects of cultivated land pollution by establishing enterprise economic credit files, and to organize agricultural machinery "going to the countryside" activities, Professional field guidance and other measures to improve individual farmers knowledge reserves, so as to scientifically manage arable land. The measures taken by the three parties have a staggered influence on each other, thus forming the resultant force among the government, enterprises and individual farmers to ensure the safety of cultivated land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.211

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本文編號(hào)：1915199