本文選題：DS證據(jù)理論 + 基本概率賦值函數(shù)�。� 參考：《中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：礦井小構(gòu)造不僅會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響煤礦安全生產(chǎn),也是絕大部分煤礦地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生的誘發(fā)因素。而煤礦生產(chǎn)安全事故會(huì)給煤礦企業(yè)帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人員傷亡。因此,加強(qiáng)對(duì)礦井小構(gòu)造的分析,全面掌控礦井小構(gòu)造的空間分布情況,實(shí)現(xiàn)小構(gòu)造空間分析的定量化、精細(xì)化、實(shí)用化,對(duì)煤礦生產(chǎn)和災(zāi)害防治具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)用價(jià)值。論文針對(duì)目前礦井小構(gòu)造分析預(yù)測(cè)方法單一、應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域局限、實(shí)用性差等缺陷,根據(jù)礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析問題的特點(diǎn),綜合提取趨勢(shì)面分析法、曲面磨光法、定量評(píng)價(jià)等分析結(jié)果的構(gòu)造特征,構(gòu)建基于特征提取的礦井小構(gòu)造基本概率賦值函數(shù),并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析識(shí)別框架,建立基于證據(jù)理論的礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析模型。最后采用交叉檢驗(yàn)法和實(shí)例證明模型結(jié)果的可靠性,并分析了引起模型不確定性的原因及相應(yīng)對(duì)策。主要取得如下成果:(1)基于特征提取的基本概率賦值函數(shù)構(gòu)造方法。根據(jù)礦井構(gòu)造定量分析結(jié)果所呈現(xiàn)的構(gòu)造空間分布基本特征,研究了提取這些特征的方法并將其轉(zhuǎn)化為證據(jù)理論領(lǐng)域的基本概率,構(gòu)造了基于特征提取的基本概率賦值方法。該方法是針對(duì)礦井構(gòu)造空間特征專門定制的概率賦值方法,保證了礦井小構(gòu)造空間多源信息在轉(zhuǎn)化為概率時(shí)的完整性和精確性,從而確保模型應(yīng)用的可靠性。(2)基于證據(jù)理論的礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析模型。根據(jù)上述基本概率賦值函數(shù)所提取的多源信息,研究并構(gòu)建了礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析問題的識(shí)別框架,分析證據(jù)組合規(guī)則及證據(jù)沖突處理機(jī)制,在此基礎(chǔ)上建立基于證據(jù)理論的礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析模型,為礦井小構(gòu)造空間分析奠定理論和技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)。(3)模型可靠性分析。根據(jù)模型在基本概率賦值函數(shù)構(gòu)造、模型構(gòu)建和實(shí)例分析階段可能產(chǎn)生的誤差因素,通過實(shí)例應(yīng)用和交叉驗(yàn)證法對(duì)這些過程進(jìn)行誤差分析,評(píng)價(jià)算法的可靠性,探索通過控制影響因素來實(shí)現(xiàn)改善和優(yōu)化模型應(yīng)用效果的對(duì)策。同時(shí)將模型的流程和算法編程實(shí)現(xiàn),形成完整、實(shí)用的分析模型軟件。
[Abstract]:Mine small structure will not only seriously affect the safety of coal production, but also the most of coal mine geological hazards induced factors. And the coal mine production safety accident will bring the huge economic loss and the personnel casualty to the coal mine enterprise. Therefore, strengthen the analysis of mine small structure, control the spatial distribution of mine small structure in an all-round way, realize the quantification, refinement and practicality of small structure space analysis, It has important theoretical significance and practical value for coal mine production and disaster prevention. Aiming at the shortcomings of the present mine small structure analysis and prediction method, such as single method, limited application field, poor practicability and so on, according to the characteristics of spatial analysis of mine small structure, the paper synthetically extracts trend surface analysis method, surface polishing method, etc. Based on the quantitative evaluation of the structural characteristics of the analysis results, the basic probability assignment function of mine small structures based on feature extraction is constructed, and the spatial analysis and identification framework of mine small structures is constructed. The spatial analysis model of mine small structure based on evidence theory is established. Finally, the reliability of the model results is proved by the cross test method and an example, and the causes of the uncertainty of the model and the corresponding countermeasures are analyzed. The main achievements are as follows: 1) the basic probability assignment function construction method based on feature extraction. According to the basic characteristics of spatial distribution of structures presented by quantitative analysis of mine structures, the methods of extracting these features are studied and transformed into the basic probabilities in the field of evidence theory, and a basic probability assignment method based on feature extraction is constructed. This method is a probability assignment method specially tailored to the spatial features of mine structures, which ensures the integrity and accuracy of the multi-source information in the small structure space when it is converted to probability. Thus ensuring the reliability of the model application. (2) the spatial analysis model of mine small structure based on evidence theory. According to the multi-source information extracted from the above basic probability assignment function, the identification framework of spatial analysis of mine small structures is studied and constructed, and the rule of evidence combination and the mechanism of dealing with evidence conflict are analyzed. On this basis, the spatial analysis model of mine small structure based on evidence theory is established, which lays a theoretical and technical foundation for the reliability analysis of mine small structure spatial analysis. According to the error factors in the basic probability assignment function construction, model construction and case analysis, the error analysis of these processes is carried out through case application and cross-validation, and the reliability of the algorithm is evaluated. This paper explores the countermeasures to improve and optimize the application effect of the model by controlling the influencing factors. At the same time, the process and algorithm of the model are programmed to form a complete and practical analysis model software.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TD82

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本文編號(hào)：1980848