本文關(guān)鍵詞： 尾礦庫(kù) 潰壩機(jī)理 路徑及成因 指標(biāo)體系 預(yù)警方法　出處：《北京科技大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：辨識(shí)并獲取尾礦庫(kù)潰壩前兆信息,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)險(xiǎn)情早期預(yù)警,是確保尾礦庫(kù)安全運(yùn)行的關(guān)鍵,也是當(dāng)前潰壩災(zāi)害研究領(lǐng)域的前沿課題。本文通過(guò)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)工程試驗(yàn)和實(shí)驗(yàn)室試驗(yàn),從潰壩的流變機(jī)理入手,在分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外160起事故案例的基礎(chǔ)上,系統(tǒng)分析了潰壩路徑及成因,獲得了潰壩在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)指標(biāo),建立了潰壩預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,提出了潰壩預(yù)警的綜合預(yù)警方法,開(kāi)發(fā)了具備實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)、分析、評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)警功能的在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),并進(jìn)行了工程應(yīng)用。 首先,對(duì)尾砂的物理力學(xué)性質(zhì)和力學(xué)特性進(jìn)行了試驗(yàn)研究,結(jié)果表明：自壩前至水面方向,密實(shí)度由大到小,顆粒由粗到細(xì)；隨深度增加,密實(shí)度由小到大,粒徑呈現(xiàn)間歇特征,但總體上是由粗到細(xì)。尾砂在外荷載作用下表現(xiàn)出明顯的壓硬性和剪脹特性,并呈現(xiàn)出一定的流變特性；破壞類(lèi)型是剪切破壞,破壞后是不可恢復(fù)的塑性變形。 其次,對(duì)尾砂的流變特性進(jìn)行分析和試驗(yàn)研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)了尾砂隨時(shí)間不斷變形的蠕變特性,以及抗剪強(qiáng)度隨時(shí)間逐漸降低的性質(zhì),基于流變學(xué)理論,提出了尾礦庫(kù)流變潰壩機(jī)理,闡明了尾礦壩的變形破壞先后經(jīng)歷了衰減變形、穩(wěn)定變形和加速變形三個(gè)階段,并以此為基礎(chǔ)建立了變形分級(jí)預(yù)警準(zhǔn)則。 隨后,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外潰壩事故進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,明確了潰壩類(lèi)型為六類(lèi),即滲流破壞、洪水漫頂、浸潤(rùn)線(xiàn)過(guò)高、壩坡過(guò)陡、壩體上升速度過(guò)快和地震液化；采用魚(yú)刺圖成因分析法,獲得了六類(lèi)潰壩的路徑及成因,并利用相關(guān)性分析法對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析,建立了反映潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的6大類(lèi)、18個(gè)指標(biāo)體系；結(jié)合現(xiàn)有儀器技術(shù)發(fā)展水平,逐一分析了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)的可行性,確定了尾礦庫(kù)潰壩在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)的8個(gè)指標(biāo)。 再者,對(duì)潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系和預(yù)警方法進(jìn)行研究,明確了潰壩預(yù)警由明確警義、尋找警源、分析警兆、預(yù)報(bào)警度和發(fā)布警情等五部分組成,并建立了5類(lèi)警情、11個(gè)警素、3類(lèi)警源和警兆的四級(jí)指標(biāo)體系,提出了指標(biāo)預(yù)警、統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)警、模型預(yù)警和綜合預(yù)警的潰壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警方法。 最后,利用C#語(yǔ)言,開(kāi)發(fā)了具備信息管理、預(yù)警分析和警情發(fā)布功能的尾礦庫(kù)潰壩在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),實(shí)現(xiàn)了在線(xiàn)監(jiān)測(cè)、分析、評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)警的自動(dòng)化,并在福建龍巖某尾礦庫(kù)進(jìn)行了工程應(yīng)用,取得很好的工程效果。
[Abstract]:It is the key to ensure the safe operation of tailing reservoir to identify and obtain the precursor information of tailing dam break and to realize the early warning of dangerous situation. It is also a frontier subject in the field of dam-break disaster research at present. Based on the analysis of 160 accident cases at home and abroad, this paper starts with the rheological mechanism of dam break through field engineering experiments and laboratory tests. The path and cause of dam break are analyzed systematically, the on-line monitoring index of dam break is obtained, the early warning index system of dam break is established, the comprehensive early warning method of dam break warning is put forward, and the real-time monitoring and analysis are developed. The online monitoring and warning system of evaluation and early warning function is applied in engineering. Firstly, the physical and mechanical properties of the tailings are studied. The results show that from the front of the dam to the surface of the water, the compactness is from large to small, and the particle size is from coarse to fine. With the increase of depth, the compactness changes from small to large, the particle size is intermittent, but generally from coarse to fine. The tailings show obvious compressive hardening and shear-expansion characteristics under external load, and show certain rheological characteristics. The failure type is shear failure, and the plastic deformation is irrecoverable after failure. Secondly, the rheological properties of tailings are analyzed and tested. The creep properties of tailings are found to deform with time, and the shear strength decreases with time, based on rheological theory. The rheological dam-break mechanism of tailings dam is put forward. The deformation and failure of tailing dam have undergone three stages: attenuation deformation, steady deformation and accelerated deformation. Based on these three stages, the early warning criterion of deformation classification has been established. Then, through statistical analysis of dam-break accidents at home and abroad, six types of dam-break are determined, that is, seepage failure, flood overtopping, too high line of infiltration, steep slope of dam, too fast rise speed of dam body and earthquake liquefaction. In this paper, the path and cause of dam break of six types are obtained by using the method of fish-burr analysis, and the indexes are analyzed by the method of correlation analysis, and 18 index systems are established to reflect the risk of dam break. Combined with the development level of existing instruments, the feasibility of on-line monitoring of risk index is analyzed one by one, and the 8 indexes of on-line monitoring of dam break in tailings reservoir are determined. Furthermore, the early warning index system and early warning method of dam break risk are studied. It is clear that dam break early warning consists of five parts: clear warning meaning, searching for warning source, analyzing warning signs, warning degree and issuing warning information. A four-level index system of 5 kinds of police information, 11 types of warning elements and 3 types of warning sources and warning signs is established. The methods of early warning of dam break risk are put forward, which are index early warning, statistical early warning, model early warning and comprehensive early warning. Finally, the online monitoring and early warning system of tailings dam break is developed with C # language, which has the functions of information management, early warning analysis and warning release, and realizes the automation of on-line monitoring, analysis, evaluation and early warning. It has been applied to a tailings reservoir in Longyan, Fujian Province, and achieved good engineering results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TD926.4

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