【摘要】：交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)在一國或地區(qū)工業(yè)化過程中的地位和作用十分突出，其是國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)。改革開放以來，我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)得到了長足發(fā)展，但與發(fā)達國家相比，仍存在諸多問題，其中能耗較高日益影響到行業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。在當(dāng)前能源緊缺和環(huán)境污染已成為制約我國經(jīng)濟社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的主要矛盾的背景下，研究我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)能耗強度變動的影響因素、影響機理、影響效應(yīng)及其未來趨勢極為重要。 本文依據(jù)能源的消耗對象及供給來源將能耗強度區(qū)分為直接能耗強度和完全能耗強度，按照現(xiàn)狀研究-機理研究-優(yōu)化研究-對策研究的思路，運用波動理論、物理-事理-人理系統(tǒng)方法論，向量自回歸模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解、結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析、DEA-Malmquist指數(shù)法、非線性優(yōu)化模型等理論方法，展開對我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)能耗強度的變動研究。主要研究內(nèi)容包括以下幾個方面： （1）運用物理-事理-人理系統(tǒng)方法論分析了我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)直接能耗強度變動的影響因素。根據(jù)方法論內(nèi)涵，物理因素主要包括設(shè)計技術(shù)、建造技術(shù)、管理技術(shù)；事理因素主要包括行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能耗結(jié)構(gòu)、投資結(jié)構(gòu)及進出口結(jié)構(gòu)等；人理因素包括節(jié)能意識、能源政策、宏觀經(jīng)濟、節(jié)能措施。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，技術(shù)因素對直接能耗強度降低作用最為明顯；1980-1995年汽車制造業(yè)比重與直接能耗強度呈現(xiàn)明顯的正相關(guān)關(guān)系，但具有一定滯后性，1996-2010年二者波動關(guān)系相對不明顯；煤炭消耗比重的下降，其他能耗比重的上升有利于直接能耗強度的下降；總體上我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)外商直接投資與直接能耗強度變動呈反向關(guān)系；宏觀經(jīng)濟景氣指數(shù)及波羅的海干散貨運價指數(shù)與直接能耗強度呈反向變動關(guān)系，且宏觀經(jīng)濟景氣指數(shù)影響效應(yīng)較大。 （2）采用VAR、IRF和VD探究了多因素對我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)直接能耗強度變動的影響效應(yīng)，結(jié)果表明：①汽車制造業(yè)比重、汽車制造業(yè)直接能耗強度、外商直接投資、固定資產(chǎn)投資、煤炭消費比重對我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)直接能耗強度的影響周期較長，影響時滯分別為4年、10年、10年、8年、8年，而能源價格對直接能耗強度的影響時滯為3年，影響周期較短。②我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)直接能耗強度的影響因素按重要程度排序為：完全能耗強度自身汽車制造業(yè)比重外商直接投資能耗結(jié)構(gòu)技術(shù)進步固定資產(chǎn)投資能源價格。 （3）利用結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析（SDA）方法研究了我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)完全能耗強度變化的深層次動因。結(jié)果表明：從完全能耗強度變動的原因看，降低完全能耗強度的首要因素是技術(shù)（包括能源技術(shù)和生產(chǎn)技術(shù)），其次是增加值，，而導(dǎo)致完全能耗強度上升的因素是最終需求因素。從中短時期來看，出口拉高了交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)完全能耗強度，而增加值、能源技術(shù)及進口大都降低了交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)完全能耗強度，在1997-2002年，2002-2007年和2005-2007年期間，生產(chǎn)技術(shù)促使完全能耗強度下降，其余期間使完全能耗強度上升。最終消費變化在1995-1997年，2002-2007年，2005-2007年間導(dǎo)致完全能耗強度升高，而在1997-2002年，2002-2005年間促使完全能耗強度降低；而除1997-2002年外，在其他各區(qū)間，投資對完全能耗強度的效應(yīng)正好與消費相反。以7-10年為周期分析，增加值、能源技術(shù)、生產(chǎn)技術(shù)、投資因素對完全能耗強度均起降低作用；出口和其他對完全能耗強度起增加作用；消費和進口的影響規(guī)律較不明顯，但影響方向正好相反。 （4）構(gòu)建了完全能耗強度變動的非線性優(yōu)化模型并對優(yōu)化后的我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)完全能耗強度的變動情況進行了分析。研究表明：當(dāng)不斷調(diào)整行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、投資與消費系數(shù)、進口與出口系數(shù)時，完全能耗強度也隨之變化。當(dāng)我國交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)工業(yè)增加值達到34519.61億元，汽車制造業(yè)、船舶制造業(yè)及其他交通運輸設(shè)備制造業(yè)比重分別為58.97%、17.01%、24.02%，消費、投資、出口及進口系數(shù)分別為0.0598、0.3024、0.064、0.0648時，完全能耗強度達到最小值0.9307tce/萬元，實現(xiàn)2015年完全能耗強度下降20%的目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:The position and role of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in the industrialization of a country or region is very prominent, which is an important basic industry for the development of the national economy. Since the reform and opening-up, China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry has developed greatly, but there are still many problems in comparison with the developed countries, among which the energy consumption is more and more affected to the sustainable development of the industry. Under the background of current energy shortage and environmental pollution has become the main contradiction that restricts the sustainable development of China's economy and society, it is of great importance to study the influencing factors, the influence mechanism, the influence effect and the future trend of the energy consumption intensity fluctuation of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry in our country. In this paper, the energy consumption intensity is divided into direct energy consumption intensity and complete energy consumption intensity according to the energy consumption object and the supply source, Theoretical methods such as method theory, vector autoregressive model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, structure decomposition analysis, DEA-Malmquist index method, nonlinear optimization model, etc. The main research contents include the following: Aspect: (1) The change of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is analyzed by using the methodology of physical-affairs-human theory system. According to the connotation of methodology, the physical factors mainly include design technology, construction technology and management technology; the main factors include industry structure, energy consumption structure, investment structure and import and export structure, etc. Energy-saving measures. Through the research, the effect of technical factors on the reduction of direct energy consumption is most obvious; in 1980-1995, the proportion of automobile manufacturing industry is positively correlated with the direct energy consumption intensity, but it has a certain hysteresis, and the fluctuation relationship between 1996 and 2010 is relatively insignificant; coal consumption The decrease of specific gravity, the rise of other energy consumption proportion is beneficial to the decrease of direct energy consumption intensity; in general, the direct investment and direct energy consumption intensity change of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry In the reverse relationship, the macroeconomic sentiment index and the Baltic dry bulk freight rate index are inversely related to the direct energy consumption intensity, and the macroeconomic performance index shadow Based on VAR, IRF and VD, the effect of multi-factors on the variation of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is investigated. The results show that the specific gravity of automobile manufacturing industry, the direct energy consumption intensity of automobile manufacturing industry and the foreign direct investment are discussed. The influence of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity of China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry is four years, 10 years, 10 years, 8 years and 8 years respectively, and the effect of energy price on the direct energy consumption intensity is 3 The influence factors of direct energy consumption intensity in China's transportation equipment manufacturing industry are ranked as follows: complete energy consumption intensity auto manufacturing industry proportion foreign direct investment energy consumption structure technology progress fixed Asset investment energy price. (3) Research on the complete energy of transportation equipment manufacturing in China by means of structure decomposition analysis (SDA) method. The results show that the primary factor for reducing the total energy consumption intensity is the technology (including energy technology and production technology), the second is the added value, which leads to the complete energy consumption intensity. The rising factor is the final demand factor. From the point of view, the export is the complete energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, while the added value, the energy technology and the import mostly reduce the total energy consumption intensity of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, during the period 1997-2002, 2002-2007 and 2005-2007, the production technology Operation causes complete energy consumption to fall, and the rest During the period of 1995-1997, 2002-2007, 2005-2007, the total energy consumption intensity increased, while in 1997-2002, the total energy consumption intensity was decreased in 2002-2005. In addition to 1997-2002, the investment had strong energy consumption in other sections. The effect of degree is just opposite to consumption. In the period of 7-10 years, the effects of cycle analysis, added value, energy technology, production technology and investment factors on total energy consumption intensity are reduced; export and other effects on complete energy consumption increase; and the effect of consumption and import is unclear. (4) The nonlinear optimization model of complete energy consumption intensity variation is constructed and the manufacturing of transportation equipment in China is completely optimized. The change of energy consumption intensity is analyzed. The research shows that when the industry structure, investment and consumption coefficient, inlet and outlet system are constantly adjusted At the same time, the total energy consumption intensity is also changed. When the added value of the manufacturing industry of China's transportation equipment is 19.61 billion Yuan, the proportion of manufacturing industry, ship manufacturing industry and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry is 58. 97%, 17. 01%, 24.02%, consumption, investment, export and import coefficient are 0. 0598, 0. 3024, respectively. When 0. 064, 0. 0648, the total energy consumption intensity reaches the minimum value of 0. 9307t/ ten thousand yuan, which is achieved in 2015.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.47

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