本文選題：主軸系統(tǒng) + 可靠性��； 參考：《吉林大學》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：數(shù)控裝備種類日漸增多，機床維修備件的需求預測也越來越復雜，如何實現(xiàn)備件科學確定與合理優(yōu)化，以達到保障精確化的目的，已成為數(shù)控裝備現(xiàn)代化建設(shè)道路上日顯突出和亟待解決的現(xiàn)實問題。 數(shù)控機床使用中故障零部件信息是備件需求預測的依據(jù)。本文針對傳統(tǒng)研究中忽視故障相關(guān)性和環(huán)境要素對可靠性影響導致備件需求預測精度較差問題，提出綜合考慮故障相關(guān)性的關(guān)鍵備件評價理論和基于環(huán)境協(xié)變量可靠性分析的備件需求預測方法，并以數(shù)控機床主軸系統(tǒng)為對象展開研究。 本文首先進行了主軸系統(tǒng)關(guān)鍵備件的選擇，選擇依據(jù)為故障模式的危害度、中心度和相關(guān)度的綜合分析值。在進行故障模式危害度分析過程中，為避免小樣本數(shù)據(jù)計算失真現(xiàn)象，在子系統(tǒng)故障模式發(fā)生頻率計算中引用貝葉斯理論，利用Slice抽樣方法，引入輔助變量實現(xiàn)邊緣模擬抽樣，結(jié)合Gibbs抽樣的思想來估計綜合信息，實現(xiàn)零部件故障危害度計算；然后采用DEMATEL方法，對相關(guān)故障子系統(tǒng)中表征其重要度的“影響度”、“被影響度”、“原因度”和“中心度”進行分析計算；根據(jù)相關(guān)子系統(tǒng)的數(shù)量、作用方向和是否具有間接相關(guān)關(guān)系對相關(guān)故障鏈進行分類，利用故障子系統(tǒng)的綜合故障率、獨立故障率和相關(guān)故障率之間關(guān)系，建立相關(guān)系數(shù)模型，完成主軸系統(tǒng)相關(guān)故障鏈中，不同子系統(tǒng)間的相關(guān)系數(shù)的求解，由此建立相關(guān)度的數(shù)學模型，并完成主軸子系統(tǒng)相關(guān)度值的分析計算；最后根據(jù)故障零件的故障模式的危害度和在相關(guān)故障鏈中的中心度以及故障相關(guān)度進行關(guān)鍵備件的選擇。 其次，針對選擇的關(guān)鍵備件，本文采用基于可靠性的方法進行備件的需求量的預測。根據(jù)可修系統(tǒng)故障損傷累積程度導致故障系統(tǒng)維修后狀態(tài)的差別進行分類，并對不同狀態(tài)下子系統(tǒng)的故障過程模型進行分析，據(jù)此進行故障截尾、時間截尾的廣義更新過程模型的推導；通過對主軸系統(tǒng)工作環(huán)境影響要素分析，在可靠性回歸模型分析的基礎(chǔ)上，采用比例風險模型建立關(guān)鍵備件的可靠性模型，利用SPSS軟件對環(huán)境協(xié)變量進行篩選，并求得協(xié)變量的系數(shù)；根據(jù)不同類型的維修備件的故障隨機過程特征，推導出考慮環(huán)境協(xié)變量的備件需求預測模型；對主軸系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵備件圓柱滾子軸承和主軸，分別進行了基于環(huán)境協(xié)變量的需求預測，并對廣義更新過程預測模型的參數(shù)采用最大似然函數(shù)進行估計，并利用遺傳算法實現(xiàn)，而故障發(fā)生隨機點的期望值采用蒙特卡羅仿真求得。此部分證明了環(huán)境協(xié)變量對備件需求量的影響，同時證明了維修度的存在對故障變化規(guī)律的影響。 本論文運用理論分析、生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)驗證、模擬仿真相結(jié)合的方法，從分析故障機理的微觀角度出發(fā)，揭示了在內(nèi)外因素的影響下主軸系統(tǒng)零部件可靠性變化規(guī)律；提出了基于貝葉斯理論的危害度分析方法，完善了FMECA理論；通過創(chuàng)建關(guān)鍵備件的選擇機制，建立了故障相關(guān)性分析的理論體系，為數(shù)控機床的可靠性精確評估，拓展了新的視角；在考慮環(huán)境協(xié)變量的情況下，結(jié)合故障子系統(tǒng)維修后的恢復狀態(tài)實現(xiàn)備件的精確預測。研究結(jié)果為數(shù)控機床的可靠性研究理論、企業(yè)資金預算、備件庫存理論研究提供了新的理論依據(jù)。 主要創(chuàng)新： 1.利用故障模式的危害度、子系統(tǒng)的中心度及子系統(tǒng)間的相關(guān)度的分析和綜合，建立了基于故障相關(guān)性分析的系統(tǒng)關(guān)鍵備件選擇理論和概念模型。 2.將分析錯綜復雜的社會相關(guān)關(guān)系的DEMATEL方法引入數(shù)控機床故障相關(guān)關(guān)系的分析，通過子系統(tǒng)之間的相關(guān)作用頻率和作用方向，計算了表征子系統(tǒng)在相關(guān)故障鏈中重要性的“四個度”，并以中心度的值作為主軸系統(tǒng)關(guān)鍵備件的選擇依據(jù)之一。 3.進行主軸子系統(tǒng)的可靠性評估時，考慮了子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部故障相關(guān)性，針對I.F故障模式進行了深入的研究，歸納了相關(guān)故障鏈種類，創(chuàng)建了基于故障鏈種類的相關(guān)系數(shù)求解的理論體系。 4.在關(guān)鍵備件進行需求預測的過程中，考慮了子系統(tǒng)外部操作環(huán)境要素的影響，對其可靠性模型設(shè)置了環(huán)境協(xié)變量，并采用可靠性回歸模型中的風險比例模型對關(guān)鍵備件進行可靠性建模，并結(jié)合備件的維修后狀態(tài)選擇不同的隨機過程模型實施備件預測。
[Abstract]:The number of numerical control equipment is increasing, and the demand prediction of machine tool maintenance spare parts is becoming more and more complex. How to realize the scientific determination and rational optimization of spare parts so as to achieve the purpose of ensuring the precision has become a realistic question which is prominent and urgent to be solved on the road of modern construction of numerical control equipment.
The information of the fault parts in the use of CNC machine tools is the basis for the prediction of spare parts demand. In this paper, the problem of poor prediction accuracy caused by the failure correlation and the influence of the environmental factors on the reliability of the spare parts is neglected in the traditional research, and the key spare parts evaluation theory and the reliability analysis based on the environmental covariate are put forward. The method of spare parts demand forecasting is studied based on the spindle system of CNC machine tools.
This paper first chooses the key spare parts of the spindle system, chooses the comprehensive analysis value based on the hazard degree, the center degree and the correlation degree of the fault mode. In the process of analyzing the hazard degree of the fault mode, to avoid the distortion of the small sample data, the Bayesian theory is used in the calculation of the frequency of the subsystem failure mode, and the Sl is used. Ice sampling method, introducing auxiliary variables to realize edge simulation sampling, combined with the idea of Gibbs sampling to estimate the comprehensive information and realize the calculation of the damage degree of parts and components, and then use the DEMATEL method to divide the "influence", "shadow loudness", "cause" and "Centrality" in the related fault subsystems to represent their importance. Analysis and calculation, according to the number of related subsystems, the direction of action and whether there is an indirect correlation to classify the related fault chains, using the comprehensive failure rate of the fault subsystem, the relationship between the independent fault rate and the related failure rate, and establishing the correlation coefficient model, complete the correlation fault chain of the main axis system, and the correlation system between the different subsystems. The mathematical model of the correlation degree is established, and the correlation degree of the spindle subsystem is analyzed and calculated. Finally, the key spare parts are selected according to the damage degree of the fault mode of the fault parts and the center degree in the related fault chain and the fault correlation degree.
Secondly, in view of the key spare parts selected, this paper uses the reliability based method to predict the demand of spare parts. According to the degree of failure damage accumulation of the repairable system, the difference of the state after the maintenance of the fault system is classified, and the fault process model of the different state system is analyzed, and the time of the failure is truncated. On the basis of the analysis of the reliability regression model, the reliability model of the key spare parts is built on the basis of the reliability regression model analysis. Based on the analysis of the reliability regression model, the SPSS software is used to screen the environmental covariate and obtain the covariate of the covariate. According to the different types of the model, the coefficient of the covariate is obtained. The prediction model of spare parts requirement considering environmental co variable is derived from the random process characteristics of maintenance spare parts. The requirement prediction of the key spare parts cylindrical roller bearing and spindle of the spindle system is carried out based on the environmental covariate, and the maximum likelihood function is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized updating process prediction model. It is realized by genetic algorithm, and the expectation value of the random point of failure is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. This part proves the influence of the environmental covariate on the demand of spare parts, and proves the effect of the existence of maintenance degree on the law of fault change.
In this paper, using the method of theoretical analysis, production data verification, simulation and simulation, from the analysis of the microcosmic angle of the failure mechanism, the paper reveals the reliability change rule of the spindle system components under the influence of internal and external factors, and puts forward the hazard analysis method based on Bias theory, perfect the FMECA theory, and through the creation of key points. For the selection mechanism of spare parts, the theoretical system of fault correlation analysis is set up, and a new angle of view is developed for the accurate evaluation of the reliability of the CNC machine tools, and the precise prediction of the spare parts is realized with the restoration state after the maintenance of the fault subsystem in the case of the environmental covariates. The research results are the reliability research theory of the CNC machine tools. The theory of capital budgeting and spare parts inventory provides a new theoretical basis.
Main innovation:
1. based on the analysis and synthesis of the damage degree of the fault mode, the centrality of the subsystem and the correlation between the subsystems, the theory and concept model of the key spare parts selection based on the fault correlation analysis are established.
2. the DEMATEL method of analyzing the complicated social correlation is introduced into the analysis of the failure correlation of CNC machine tools. The "four degrees" of the importance of the subsystem in the related fault chain are calculated by the frequency and the direction of the interaction between the subsystems, and the selection of the key spare parts of the spindle system is taken as the value of the center degree. One of the basis.
3. when the reliability evaluation of the spindle subsystem is carried out, the internal fault correlation of the subsystem is considered, and the I.F fault mode is studied deeply. The types of the related fault chain are summed up, and the theory system of the correlation coefficient solution based on the type of fault chain is created.
4. in the process of demand prediction for key spare parts, considering the influence of the external operating environment factors of the subsystem, the environmental co variable is set up for its reliability model, and the reliability model of the key spare parts is modeled by the risk proportion model in the reliability regression model, and the different random processes are selected in the condition of the maintenance of spare parts. The model implements spare parts prediction.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TG659

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