【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市居民的交通出行問題已成為大眾關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)�；诰用癯鲂姓{(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),對居民出行行為進(jìn)行分析,總結(jié)出行規(guī)律,是城市交通規(guī)劃與建設(shè)不可缺少的工作,也可為相關(guān)部門制定交通管理政策提供參考依據(jù)。針對我國當(dāng)前出行特征研究主要是基于出行調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析,本文提出利用Ordered Probit模型和回歸模型深入分析出行者特性對出行特征的影響,同時鑒于國內(nèi)研究中很少考慮家庭結(jié)構(gòu)因素,本文在研究中分析了家庭結(jié)構(gòu)對出行特征的影響。概括起來,本論文的研究內(nèi)容主要包括以下三點(diǎn)： (1)從家庭內(nèi)部作用關(guān)系、家庭結(jié)構(gòu)、個人角色、陪同出行和兒童的存在等方面分析家庭對其成員活動出行的影響。 (2)針對居民出行調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)特征,利用方差分析研究發(fā)現(xiàn)家庭結(jié)構(gòu)、家庭收入、年齡等出行者特性對老年人和年輕人在通勤、購物、娛樂目的下的出行頻率、出行距離和時耗有顯著的影響。為了進(jìn)一步弄清這些影響關(guān)系,本文利用Ordered Probit模型和多元回歸模型對上述特性變量參數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)定,研究結(jié)果表明核心家庭和多代家庭中老年人出行頻率、出行距離和時耗少于退休家庭,特別是在娛樂出行中顯著性明顯；多代家庭中的年輕人通勤出行距離和時間多于核心家庭,而購物出行次數(shù)少于核心家庭中年輕人。 (3)分析居民出行方式的影響特性,利用最大效用理論,通過對調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的分析,分別確定在通勤、購物和娛樂出行目的下各出行方式的效用函數(shù)特性變量。構(gòu)建多項Logit模型并進(jìn)行模型參數(shù)標(biāo)定、檢驗及優(yōu)化,最后解釋分析出行方式選擇行為,并提出特性變量貢獻(xiàn)度概念來比較性別、年齡、換乘次數(shù)、行程時間等特性對出行方式選擇的影響大小。 本文結(jié)合交通規(guī)劃理論,基于數(shù)據(jù)分析方法,應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計軟件和相關(guān)模型,定量研究了城市居民的出行行為特征。本文的研究對解釋老年人和年輕人不同目的下的出行特征、出行方式選擇、科學(xué)制定交通出行引導(dǎo)措施具有實際意義。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the traffic travel problem of urban residents has become the focus of public attention. Based on the survey data of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the travel behavior of residents and summarizes the travel law, which is an indispensable work in urban traffic planning and construction, and can also provide a reference for the relevant departments to formulate traffic management policies. In view of the fact that the current research on travel characteristics in China is mainly based on the statistical analysis of travel survey data, this paper proposes to use Ordered Probit model and regression model to deeply analyze the impact of traveler characteristics on travel characteristics. At the same time, in view of the fact that the family structure factors are rarely considered in the domestic research, this paper analyzes the influence of the family structure on the travel characteristics. To sum up, the research contents of this paper mainly include the following three points: (1) from the aspects of family internal functional relationship, family structure, personal role, escort travel and the existence of children, the influence of family on the activity travel of its members is analyzed. (2) according to the data characteristics of residents' travel survey, using variance analysis, it is found that the travel frequency of the elderly and young people under commuting, shopping and entertainment purposes is affected by the characteristics of family structure, family income, age and so on. Travel distance and time consumption have a significant impact. In order to further understand the relationship between these effects, this paper uses Ordered Probit model and multiple regression model to calibrate the parameters of the above characteristic variables. The results show that the travel frequency of the middle-aged and the elderly in the nuclear family and the multi-generation family. The travel distance and time consumption are less than those of retired families, especially in entertainment travel. Young people in multi-generation families travel more distance and time than nuclear families, while shopping trips are less frequent than those in nuclear families. (3) the influence characteristics of residents' travel mode are analyzed, and the utility function characteristic variables of each travel mode under the purpose of commuting, shopping and entertainment are determined by using the maximum utility theory and the analysis of the survey data. The multi-item Logit model is constructed and the model parameters are calibrated, tested and optimized. finally, the behavior of travel mode selection is explained and analyzed, and the concept of contribution degree of characteristic variables is put forward to compare gender, age and transfer times. The influence of travel time and other characteristics on the choice of travel mode. Based on the theory of traffic planning, based on the data analysis method, this paper quantitatively studies the travel behavior characteristics of urban residents by using statistical software and related models. The research in this paper is of practical significance to explain the travel characteristics of the elderly and young people under different purposes, the choice of travel modes, and the scientific formulation of traffic travel guidance measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.1

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

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本文編號：2481816