高速公路工程施工方進度風險分析研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-21 22:20
【摘要】：公路工程建設同其他建設工程項目一樣，具有周期長、投資大、工程復雜、參與人員多等一系列特點，這也就意味著在公路工程的建設過程中，會出現(xiàn)許多不確定性的風險因素，這些風險因素可能會影響到工程的進度、質(zhì)量、安全、成本等方面。尤其是在進度方面，公路工程項目能否在規(guī)定的時間內(nèi)竣工使用，將會直接影響到其社會效益和經(jīng)濟效益是否能夠按期發(fā)揮。 關于公路工程進度方面的研究前人已在很多方面進行了深入的分析，但是絕大部分都是針對整個建設工程項目，分析其影響因素。本文在前人研究和施工現(xiàn)有狀況的基礎上，從施工方的角度出發(fā)，介紹了施工進度風險管理的相關理論，施工方進度風險分析綜合評價體系的構(gòu)建，施工方進度風險分析理論模型的建立，并選用工程實例對以上內(nèi)容進行了實例的應用。具體內(nèi)容如下： 首先，介紹施工進度風險管理的相關內(nèi)容，，并對施工進度風險管理中的風險因素的識別過程作了詳細的介紹：采用三輪篩選法，以調(diào)查問卷的形式對施工進度的風險因素進行收集和整理，并用解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型（ISM）對通過三輪篩選法得到的最終的施工進度風險因素進行層次模型的構(gòu)建。根據(jù)由解釋結(jié)構(gòu)模型得到的遞階結(jié)構(gòu)模型，可以得到施工方進度風險分析的綜合評價指標體系。 其次，在得到了施工方進度風險分析的評價指標體系以后，采用改進后的層次分析法（AHP）對各級評價指標進行權(quán)重的確定，并采用熵值法對各指標的權(quán)重進行修正，就得到了各級評價指標最終的權(quán)重值，即各指標對施工方進度的影響強弱。對此進行排序，就可以得到影響施工方進度的主要因素，由此決策者可以采取有針對性的措施，避免盲目指揮，提高工作效率。然后，采用灰色評價法確定施工方進度的風險等級，以使決策者做到心中有數(shù)。 最后，選取湖北省監(jiān)利至江陵高速公路JJTJ—4合同段，對以上建立的施工方進度風險分析理論模型進行實例的驗證。最后得出，該評價理論模型對類似的工程實例的分析有一定的理論指導意義。
[Abstract]:Highway engineering construction, like other construction projects, has a series of characteristics, such as long cycle, large investment, complex engineering and more participants, which means that in the construction process of highway engineering, There will be many uncertain risk factors, which may affect the progress, quality, safety, cost and so on. Especially in the aspect of progress, whether the highway project can be completed and used within the specified time will directly affect its social and economic benefits. Previous studies on the progress of highway engineering have carried out in-depth analysis in many aspects, but most of them are aimed at the whole construction project and analyze its influencing factors. On the basis of previous research and current construction situation, this paper introduces the related theory of construction schedule risk management and the construction of comprehensive evaluation system of construction schedule risk analysis from the perspective of construction party. The theoretical model of construction party schedule risk analysis is established, and a project example is selected to apply the above examples. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, the related content of construction schedule risk management is introduced, and the identification process of risk factors in construction schedule risk management is introduced in detail: using the three-round screening method, The risk factors of construction schedule are collected and sorted in the form of questionnaire, and the hierarchical model of the final risk factors of construction schedule obtained by three-round screening method is constructed by using the interpretive structural model (ISM). According to the hierarchical structural model derived from the interpretive structural model, a comprehensive evaluation index system for construction party schedule risk analysis can be obtained. Secondly, after obtaining the evaluation index system of construction party schedule risk analysis, the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes at all levels, and the entropy method is used to modify the weights of each index. The final weight value of the evaluation indexes at all levels is obtained, that is, the influence of each index on the construction schedule is strong and weak. In order to get the main factors that affect the progress of the construction worker, the decision-maker can take measures to avoid blind command and improve the work efficiency. Then, the grey evaluation method is used to determine the risk level of construction schedule, so as to make the decision-makers know exactly what they want. Finally, the JJTJ-4 contract section of Jianli-Jiangling Expressway in Hubei Province is selected to verify the theoretical model of construction schedule risk analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the evaluation theory model has some theoretical guiding significance to the analysis of similar engineering cases.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U415.1
本文編號：2462611
[Abstract]:Highway engineering construction, like other construction projects, has a series of characteristics, such as long cycle, large investment, complex engineering and more participants, which means that in the construction process of highway engineering, There will be many uncertain risk factors, which may affect the progress, quality, safety, cost and so on. Especially in the aspect of progress, whether the highway project can be completed and used within the specified time will directly affect its social and economic benefits. Previous studies on the progress of highway engineering have carried out in-depth analysis in many aspects, but most of them are aimed at the whole construction project and analyze its influencing factors. On the basis of previous research and current construction situation, this paper introduces the related theory of construction schedule risk management and the construction of comprehensive evaluation system of construction schedule risk analysis from the perspective of construction party. The theoretical model of construction party schedule risk analysis is established, and a project example is selected to apply the above examples. The specific contents are as follows: firstly, the related content of construction schedule risk management is introduced, and the identification process of risk factors in construction schedule risk management is introduced in detail: using the three-round screening method, The risk factors of construction schedule are collected and sorted in the form of questionnaire, and the hierarchical model of the final risk factors of construction schedule obtained by three-round screening method is constructed by using the interpretive structural model (ISM). According to the hierarchical structural model derived from the interpretive structural model, a comprehensive evaluation index system for construction party schedule risk analysis can be obtained. Secondly, after obtaining the evaluation index system of construction party schedule risk analysis, the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes at all levels, and the entropy method is used to modify the weights of each index. The final weight value of the evaluation indexes at all levels is obtained, that is, the influence of each index on the construction schedule is strong and weak. In order to get the main factors that affect the progress of the construction worker, the decision-maker can take measures to avoid blind command and improve the work efficiency. Then, the grey evaluation method is used to determine the risk level of construction schedule, so as to make the decision-makers know exactly what they want. Finally, the JJTJ-4 contract section of Jianli-Jiangling Expressway in Hubei Province is selected to verify the theoretical model of construction schedule risk analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the evaluation theory model has some theoretical guiding significance to the analysis of similar engineering cases.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U415.1
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 蔣慧杰;吳慧博;夏立明;趙春雪;;高速公路施工進度風險評價[J];重慶大學學報(社會科學版);2012年02期
2 郭鵬,鄭唯唯;AHP應用的一些改進[J];系統(tǒng)工程;1995年01期
3 鄭宇;董川順;馬登哲;;基于AHP和熵值法的項目供應商灰色關聯(lián)評價[J];工業(yè)工程與管理;2011年06期
4 吳昌成;封春房;邱紅桐;俞春俊;~F建新;;公安交通指揮系統(tǒng)評價方法[J];公路交通科技;2012年S1期
5 彭蘭梅;;施工進度計劃的動態(tài)控制在高速公路改造工程中的應用[J];中外公路;2013年05期
6 王伯安;王風云;曾廣層;;基于熵值法的中國石化行業(yè)競爭力評價[J];科學學與科學技術管理;2009年05期
7 劉慶娟;樊燕燕;;基于Fuzzy-AHP的施工單位進度控制評價模型[J];工程管理學報;2012年06期
8 王仁超,歐陽斌,褚春超;工程網(wǎng)絡計劃蒙特卡洛仿真研究[J];水利水電技術;2003年11期
9 閻長俊,陳陽,潘廣軍,徐莉;建設項目風險研究綜述[J];沈陽建筑工程學院學報(自然科學版);2002年01期
10 夏立明;崔民婧;趙春雪;;基于因子分析構(gòu)建高速公路項目施工進度的風險指標體系[J];天津工業(yè)大學學報;2011年06期
本文編號：2462611
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/jiaotonggongchenglunwen/2462611.html
教材專著
