小汽車尾號限行的博弈分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-31 18:30
【摘要】：近年來，我國的小汽車保有量迅速增長，使得城市空氣環(huán)境污染日趨嚴重，同時帶來許多交通擁堵問題，政府提出了小汽車尾號限行政策。該政策實施后，道路上的汽車運行數(shù)量明顯減少，道路擁堵得到很大程度的改善，車輛的運行速度明顯提高。但是此種措施在緩解交通擁堵的同時對環(huán)境、社會經濟、交通功能和資源利用等方面也產生了一定影響。 尾號限行實施后，一定程度上緩解了城市道路的交通壓力，也產生了一系列影響，比如改變居民出行行為和出行成本、刺激居民汽車消費、改變交通管制成本和物流運輸成本等等，直接影響居民的日常生活，因而對尾號限行政策的分析評價變得十分重要。 針對尾號限行這一交通需求管理模式，，通過分析國內外各城市尾號限行實施現(xiàn)狀，主要從環(huán)境、社會經濟、資源利用、交通功能等方面，分別闡述尾號限行產生的各方面的影響。在此基礎上，對尾號限行各方面的影響進行定量和定性的綜合分析。環(huán)境方面：限行改善空氣質量、降低噪聲污染、減少大氣污染物的排放，評價指標有空氣污染指數(shù)、一氧化碳濃度、氮氧化物濃度、噪聲分貝、顆粒物質濃度和汽車振動強度；社會經濟方面：限行刺激公眾的汽車消費，改變居民出行方式，減少日均時間延誤，降低交通管制成本和交通事故經濟成本，評價指標有居民平均出行距離、居民出行成本、主干道人均行程時間變化率、萬車死亡率等；資源利用方面：釋放道路資源，降低燃油消耗和水質污染，節(jié)約能源，評價指標有人、車/時空消耗、人均空間資源占用率、油耗率等。而在交通方面，實施尾號限行會給交通環(huán)境帶來很大程度的改善，降低主干路的日均車流量，緩解道路交通壓力，節(jié)約出行時間。分別從交通出行需求改變、交通出行方式結構改變、交通出行分布改變、時空均衡分布四個角度評價其影響，并在上述四個子系統(tǒng)影響分析的基礎上，建立子系統(tǒng)指標體系，評價指標有：車/公里總量、主要道路車輛平均速度、主要道路里程擁擠率、停車供需變化量、主要公交線路高峰滿載率、關鍵交叉口服務水平指標等。 綜合考慮各方面影響的評價指標，根據(jù)“囚徒困境”和“公共地悲劇”理論，分析城市交通中的“公共地悲劇”問題，建立完全信息靜態(tài)博弈模型，運用精煉貝葉斯納什均衡理論對其產生的各方面的影響進行全面系統(tǒng)性分析，在總體達到最優(yōu)的情況下，尋求合理的尾號限行改善策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of cars in our country has been increasing rapidly, which makes the air pollution in cities become more and more serious. At the same time, it brings a lot of traffic congestion problems. The government has put forward the policy of car tail number restriction. After the implementation of the policy, the number of vehicles running on the road is obviously reduced, the road congestion has been greatly improved, and the speed of the vehicle has been obviously increased. However, this kind of measures has a certain impact on environment, social economy, traffic function and resource utilization while alleviating traffic congestion. After the implementation of the trailing restrictions, traffic pressure on urban roads has been alleviated to a certain extent, and a series of effects have also been produced, such as changing residents' travel behavior and travel costs, and stimulating residents' car consumption. The change of traffic control cost and logistics transportation cost has a direct impact on the daily life of residents, so it is very important to analyze and evaluate the trailing number restriction policy. In view of the traffic demand management mode of tail-number restriction, by analyzing the current situation of the implementation of tail-number restriction in domestic and foreign cities, it is mainly from the aspects of environment, social economy, resource utilization, traffic function, etc. The influence of the end number limit on each aspect is expounded respectively. On this basis, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impact of the tail number limit on all aspects of the line is carried out. Environmental aspects: limit to improve air quality, reduce noise pollution, reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants, the evaluation indicators are air pollution index, carbon monoxide concentration, nitrogen oxide concentration, noise decibel, particulate matter concentration and vehicle vibration intensity; Social and economic aspects: restrictions stimulate public car consumption, change the way residents travel, reduce daily average time delay, reduce the cost of traffic control and economic costs of traffic accidents, the evaluation indicators include the average travel distance of residents, residents travel costs, The change rate of per capita travel time, the death rate of ten thousand vehicles, etc.; In terms of resource utilization: releasing road resources, reducing fuel consumption and water pollution, saving energy, evaluating indexes, vehicle / space consumption, per capita space resource occupancy, fuel consumption rate and so on. In the traffic aspect, the implementation of the tail number restriction will bring a great deal of improvement to the traffic environment, reduce the average daily traffic flow of the trunk road, ease the road traffic pressure, and save travel time. The impact is evaluated from four aspects: the change of traffic demand, the change of traffic mode structure, the change of traffic travel distribution, and the distribution of space-time equilibrium. Based on the analysis of the impact of the above four subsystems, the subsystem index system is established. The evaluation indexes include the total vehicle / km, the average speed of the main road vehicle, the main road mileage congestion rate, the change of parking supply and demand, the peak load rate of the main bus line, the service level index of the key intersection, etc. According to the theory of "prisoner's dilemma" and "tragedy of public land", this paper analyzes the problem of "tragedy of public land" in urban traffic, and establishes a static game model of complete information. Based on the theory of refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium, this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the effects of the refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium theory, and seeks for a reasonable strategy to improve the trailing number limit under the condition that the whole is optimal.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491
本文編號：2396954
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of cars in our country has been increasing rapidly, which makes the air pollution in cities become more and more serious. At the same time, it brings a lot of traffic congestion problems. The government has put forward the policy of car tail number restriction. After the implementation of the policy, the number of vehicles running on the road is obviously reduced, the road congestion has been greatly improved, and the speed of the vehicle has been obviously increased. However, this kind of measures has a certain impact on environment, social economy, traffic function and resource utilization while alleviating traffic congestion. After the implementation of the trailing restrictions, traffic pressure on urban roads has been alleviated to a certain extent, and a series of effects have also been produced, such as changing residents' travel behavior and travel costs, and stimulating residents' car consumption. The change of traffic control cost and logistics transportation cost has a direct impact on the daily life of residents, so it is very important to analyze and evaluate the trailing number restriction policy. In view of the traffic demand management mode of tail-number restriction, by analyzing the current situation of the implementation of tail-number restriction in domestic and foreign cities, it is mainly from the aspects of environment, social economy, resource utilization, traffic function, etc. The influence of the end number limit on each aspect is expounded respectively. On this basis, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impact of the tail number limit on all aspects of the line is carried out. Environmental aspects: limit to improve air quality, reduce noise pollution, reduce emissions of atmospheric pollutants, the evaluation indicators are air pollution index, carbon monoxide concentration, nitrogen oxide concentration, noise decibel, particulate matter concentration and vehicle vibration intensity; Social and economic aspects: restrictions stimulate public car consumption, change the way residents travel, reduce daily average time delay, reduce the cost of traffic control and economic costs of traffic accidents, the evaluation indicators include the average travel distance of residents, residents travel costs, The change rate of per capita travel time, the death rate of ten thousand vehicles, etc.; In terms of resource utilization: releasing road resources, reducing fuel consumption and water pollution, saving energy, evaluating indexes, vehicle / space consumption, per capita space resource occupancy, fuel consumption rate and so on. In the traffic aspect, the implementation of the tail number restriction will bring a great deal of improvement to the traffic environment, reduce the average daily traffic flow of the trunk road, ease the road traffic pressure, and save travel time. The impact is evaluated from four aspects: the change of traffic demand, the change of traffic mode structure, the change of traffic travel distribution, and the distribution of space-time equilibrium. Based on the analysis of the impact of the above four subsystems, the subsystem index system is established. The evaluation indexes include the total vehicle / km, the average speed of the main road vehicle, the main road mileage congestion rate, the change of parking supply and demand, the peak load rate of the main bus line, the service level index of the key intersection, etc. According to the theory of "prisoner's dilemma" and "tragedy of public land", this paper analyzes the problem of "tragedy of public land" in urban traffic, and establishes a static game model of complete information. Based on the theory of refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium, this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the effects of the refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium theory, and seeks for a reasonable strategy to improve the trailing number limit under the condition that the whole is optimal.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491
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