【摘要】：中國(guó)港口吞吐量的快速增長(zhǎng)需要港口做出適時(shí)的調(diào)整,港口吞吐量的精準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)在港口發(fā)展、改造、資源配置等方面就顯得尤為重要。2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,我國(guó)港口吞吐量增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)入了一個(gè)新的階段,港口吞吐量增速明顯變緩,多種因素都影響著吞吐量的增長(zhǎng),規(guī)律與以往相比發(fā)生了重大變化,傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測(cè)方法和模型已經(jīng)難以保證當(dāng)前預(yù)測(cè)工作的需要。本文研究對(duì)象為國(guó)內(nèi)沿海港口的吞吐量,以廣州港為代表分析港口吞吐量的影響因素,采用粗糙集與遺傳規(guī)劃結(jié)合的方法構(gòu)建吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)模型,達(dá)到對(duì)吞吐量的精準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)于確定港口的發(fā)展方向、基本設(shè)施投資規(guī)模、港口的經(jīng)營(yíng)策略、深水泊位的選址和港口布局等方面,都有著重要的、不可缺少的作用。 本文首先對(duì)以廣州港為代表的中國(guó)沿海港口吞吐量影響因素進(jìn)行分析,建立吞吐量指標(biāo)體系；然后,采用改進(jìn)的基于鄰域粗糙集的數(shù)值屬性約簡(jiǎn)算法獲取關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)；最后,利用遺傳規(guī)劃方法對(duì)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)樣本進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練,構(gòu)建吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)模型。本文最后采用廣州港2000-2012年的歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證,評(píng)價(jià)該吞吐量模型的可行性和有效性。并對(duì)廣州港2013-2015年吞吐量做出預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與廣州港發(fā)展意見中2015年廣州港吞吐量力爭(zhēng)達(dá)到5億萬(wàn)噸的數(shù)值基本符合,并且結(jié)合預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為廣州港港口發(fā)展提出建議。 本文的主要成果包括：1、建立了以廣州港為代表的國(guó)內(nèi)沿海港口的吞吐量指標(biāo)體系；2、采用改進(jìn)的基于鄰域模型的前向貪心數(shù)值屬性約簡(jiǎn)算法對(duì)港口吞吐量指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行約簡(jiǎn)；3、首次將粗糙集屬性約簡(jiǎn)方法與遺傳規(guī)劃結(jié)合用于港口吞吐量預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:The rapid growth of China's port throughput requires timely port adjustment, and accurate prediction of port throughput is particularly important in port development, transformation, and resource allocation. Since the financial crisis broke out in 2008, The growth trend of port throughput in China has entered a new stage. The growth rate of port throughput has slowed obviously, and a variety of factors have affected the growth of throughput, and the law has changed significantly compared with the past. Traditional prediction methods and models have been difficult to meet the needs of current forecasting work. The research object of this paper is the throughput of domestic coastal ports. Taking Guangzhou Port as a representative to analyze the influence factors of port throughput, a throughput prediction model is constructed by combining rough set and genetic programming to achieve accurate throughput prediction. It plays an important and indispensable role in determining the direction of port development, the scale of infrastructure investment, the management strategy of port, the location of deep water berth and the layout of port. In this paper, the factors affecting the throughput of China's coastal ports, represented by Guangzhou Port, are analyzed, and the throughput index system is established, and then the improved numerical attribute reduction algorithm based on neighborhood rough set is used to obtain the key indicators. Finally, the key index samples are trained by genetic programming method, and the throughput prediction model is constructed. In the end, we use the historical data of Guangzhou Port from 2000 to 2012 to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The throughput of Guangzhou Port in 2013-2015 is forecasted, and the result is in agreement with that of Guangzhou Port in 2015, and some suggestions are put forward for the port development of Guangzhou Port. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: 1. The throughput index system of domestic coastal ports represented by Guangzhou Port is established; (2) the improved forward greedy numerical attribute reduction algorithm based on neighborhood model is used to reduce the port throughput index system; 3, the rough set attribute reduction method is combined with genetic programming for port throughput prediction for the first time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U691

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