基于廣義估計(jì)方程的時(shí)間相關(guān)性事故頻次建模（英文）
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-30 18:19
【摘要】：研究目的:采用廣義估計(jì)方程模型對(duì)存在時(shí)間相關(guān)性的事故頻次數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模,并與傳統(tǒng)廣義線性模型的估計(jì)效果進(jìn)行對(duì)比。創(chuàng)新要點(diǎn):通過(guò)廣義估計(jì)方程來(lái)考慮事故頻次建模中數(shù)據(jù)的時(shí)間相關(guān)性,從而提高參數(shù)估計(jì)準(zhǔn)確度以及模型預(yù)測(cè)精度。研究方法:基于4年高速公路交通事故頻次數(shù)據(jù),建立考慮時(shí)間相關(guān)性的廣義估計(jì)方程以及傳統(tǒng)的廣義線性模型,并采用統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)對(duì)模型效果進(jìn)行對(duì)比。重要結(jié)論:1.事故頻次數(shù)據(jù)樣本量對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)精度影響很大;2.廣義估計(jì)方程能夠有效考慮事故頻次數(shù)據(jù)中存在的時(shí)間相關(guān)性;3.廣義估計(jì)方程的參數(shù)估計(jì)比傳統(tǒng)廣義線性模型更準(zhǔn)確,且精度更高。
[Abstract]:Objective: to model the time-dependent accident frequency data by using the generalized estimation equation model and compare the estimation results with the traditional generalized linear model. Innovation points: the time correlation of the data in accident frequency modeling is considered through the generalized estimation equation, so as to improve the accuracy of parameter estimation and the prediction accuracy of the model. Methods: based on the frequency data of highway traffic accidents for 4 years, the generalized estimation equation and the traditional generalized linear model were established, and the statistical indexes were used to compare the effects of the model. Important conclusions: 1. The sample size of accident frequency data has a great influence on the prediction accuracy; 2. The generalized estimation equation can effectively consider the time correlation in accident frequency data. The parameter estimation of the generalized estimation equation is more accurate and accurate than the traditional generalized linear model.
【作者單位】： Jiangsu
【基金】：Project supported by the National Key Basic Research Program(973)of China(No.2012CB725400) the National High-Tech R&D Program(863)of China(No.2012AA112304) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51338003)
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31
本文編號(hào)：2300792
[Abstract]:Objective: to model the time-dependent accident frequency data by using the generalized estimation equation model and compare the estimation results with the traditional generalized linear model. Innovation points: the time correlation of the data in accident frequency modeling is considered through the generalized estimation equation, so as to improve the accuracy of parameter estimation and the prediction accuracy of the model. Methods: based on the frequency data of highway traffic accidents for 4 years, the generalized estimation equation and the traditional generalized linear model were established, and the statistical indexes were used to compare the effects of the model. Important conclusions: 1. The sample size of accident frequency data has a great influence on the prediction accuracy; 2. The generalized estimation equation can effectively consider the time correlation in accident frequency data. The parameter estimation of the generalized estimation equation is more accurate and accurate than the traditional generalized linear model.
【作者單位】： Jiangsu
【基金】：Project supported by the National Key Basic Research Program(973)of China(No.2012CB725400) the National High-Tech R&D Program(863)of China(No.2012AA112304) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51338003)
【分類號(hào)】：U491.31
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