【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市交通出行需求不斷增加,早晚高峰交通擁堵日益嚴(yán)重,行程時(shí)間可靠性較低,城市交通管理部門(mén)不斷尋求各種改善交通的措施。為了合理科學(xué)評(píng)估交通管理方案、交通設(shè)施建設(shè)的效果,需要對(duì)城市交通出行成本進(jìn)行更全面合理地分析,而傳統(tǒng)的行程時(shí)間價(jià)值研究已不能全面反映城市交通出行成本,更需要對(duì)不同交通方式及方案下的通勤者時(shí)間價(jià)值及行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值進(jìn)行量化研究。本文立足城市通勤者,使用SP (stated preference)調(diào)查法開(kāi)展出行者在公共交通方式及小汽車(chē)方式下的行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值研究。 首先,本文在綜述國(guó)內(nèi)外行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分析通勤出行特性,確定了以城市通勤者為研究對(duì)象,分析了行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值因素,并分析選取了城市通勤者行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值基礎(chǔ)模型。 隨后,確定了出行者個(gè)人屬性、出行時(shí)間約束、出行特征屬性的水平值,采用均勻設(shè)計(jì)法對(duì)公共交通方式和小汽車(chē)方式卜的SP調(diào)查問(wèn)卷進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì),開(kāi)展調(diào)研獲取了通勤者出行意愿數(shù)據(jù),并進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)的轉(zhuǎn)換和校核。 其次,分析“出行者收入水平”和“出行者面臨的時(shí)間約束”兩個(gè)新增變量對(duì)出行者效用方程的影響,對(duì)公共交通方式和小汽車(chē)方式的基礎(chǔ)行程時(shí)間可靠性模型進(jìn)行了改進(jìn),并結(jié)合SP調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行模型檢驗(yàn),確定兩種交通方式下的最優(yōu)模型形式。 最后,根據(jù)改進(jìn)后的模型,分別對(duì)公共交通方式和小汽車(chē)方式下的行程時(shí)間可靠性價(jià)值進(jìn)行求解,并從價(jià)值類(lèi)別、價(jià)值數(shù)值、收入水平、時(shí)間約束、交通方式等角度對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析與對(duì)比。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the demand for urban transportation is increasing, the traffic congestion is becoming more and more serious in the morning and evening, the reliability of travel time is low, and the urban traffic management department is constantly looking for various measures to improve the traffic. In order to evaluate the traffic management scheme scientifically and the effect of traffic facilities construction, it is necessary to make a more comprehensive and reasonable analysis of urban transportation travel cost, but the traditional study of travel time value can not fully reflect the urban transportation travel cost. It is also necessary to quantify the commuter time value and travel time reliability value under different traffic modes and schemes. Based on urban commuters, this paper uses SP (stated preference) survey method to study the reliability value of travel time in public transportation and car mode. First of all, on the basis of summarizing the research on the reliability value of travel time at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the characteristics of commuting trip, determines the city commuters as the research object, and analyzes the value factors of travel time reliability. The reliability value model of urban commuter's travel time is analyzed and selected. Then, the level value of individual attribute, travel time constraint, travel characteristic attribute is determined, and the SP questionnaire of public transportation mode and car mode is designed by uniform design method. The data of commuter travel intention were obtained, and the data were converted and checked. Secondly, the paper analyzes the influence of two new variables, "traveler income level" and "traveler's time constraint", on the traveler's utility equation, and improves the reliability model of the basic travel time of public transport mode and car mode. Combined with the SP survey data, the optimal model form is determined under the two traffic modes. Finally, according to the improved model, the reliability value of travel time in public transport mode and car mode is solved, and the value category, value, income level, time constraint, The results are analyzed and compared from the point of view of traffic mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491.1

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