【摘要】：在各類道路交通碰撞事故中，汽車與自行車、電動兩輪車等兩輪車碰撞事故發(fā)生率逐漸增高。而且由于兩輪車騎車人沒有車身保護，在道路交通中屬弱勢群體，易受傷，死亡率相對較高，預(yù)防和減少兩輪車事故中騎車人的損傷，已成為國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者研究的重點課題。目前，，對于汽車與兩輪車事故中騎車人的損傷分析研究，大多是基于人、車、路及環(huán)境，進行單因素，孤立化分析，故其研究和分析方法不具有普適性。 本文在道路交通事故致因分析的基礎(chǔ)上，開展汽車與兩輪車碰撞事故致因研究，并將其與貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法結(jié)合，進行汽車與兩輪車碰撞事故的騎車人損傷風(fēng)險研究�？紤]到兩輪車碰撞事故的復(fù)雜性與多樣性，本文選取和整理了2001年至2010年間長沙地區(qū)2094起汽車與兩輪車碰撞事故樣本數(shù)據(jù)，同時研究了導(dǎo)致汽車—兩輪車碰撞事故發(fā)生的人、車、路及環(huán)境四方面因素，進而確定出四類因素具體種類及事故發(fā)生情況。隨后，基于人-車-道路-環(huán)境耦合系統(tǒng)，進行綜合、深入化的多因素分析研究，建立汽車與兩輪車碰撞事故的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，得出導(dǎo)致兩輪車碰撞事故發(fā)生的致因鏈條。最后，根據(jù)模型推理結(jié)果，找出事故發(fā)生的關(guān)鍵控制點，為預(yù)防和減少長沙地區(qū)兩輪車碰撞事故騎車人損傷風(fēng)險提出相應(yīng)的安全管理措施。 本文的研究成果對長沙地區(qū)汽車與兩輪車碰撞事故的預(yù)防具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義，可為相關(guān)部門采取科學(xué)的預(yù)防措施和合理的救治策略提供合理的依據(jù)。同時，采用的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法對其他類型的碰撞事故風(fēng)險研究具有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In all kinds of road traffic accidents, the rate of collision between cars and bicycles, electric two-wheeled vehicles and other two-wheeled vehicles is increasing gradually. Because the two-wheeled cyclists have no body protection, they are vulnerable to injury, and the mortality rate is relatively high in road traffic. Therefore, preventing and reducing the injuries caused by bikers in two-wheeled accidents has become a key research topic of experts and scholars at home and abroad. At present, most of the research on the damage of cyclists in automobile and two-wheeled vehicle accidents is based on human, vehicle, road and environment, which is based on single factor and isolated analysis, so its research and analysis method is not universal. Based on the analysis of the cause of road traffic accident, this paper studies the cause of vehicle and two-wheel vehicle collision accident, and combines it with Bayesian network method to study the risk of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Considering the complexity and diversity of two-wheeled vehicle collision accident, this paper selects and collates the sample data of 2094 vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accidents in Changsha from 2001 to 2010, and studies the people who caused the vehicle-two-wheeled vehicle collision accident. Car, road and environment factors, and then determine the specific types of four factors and accident occurrence. Then, based on the human-vehicle-road-environment coupling system, the Bayesian network model of vehicle and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is established, and the cause chain of the two-wheeled vehicle collision accident is obtained. Finally, according to the result of the model reasoning, the key control points of the accident are found out, and the corresponding safety management measures are put forward to prevent and reduce the injury risk of the cyclists in the two-wheel collision accident in Changsha area. The research results of this paper have certain guiding significance for the prevention of automobile and two-wheeled vehicle collision accident in Changsha area, and can provide reasonable basis for the relevant departments to take scientific preventive measures and reasonable rescue strategies. At the same time, the Bayesian network method can be used for reference to other types of collision accident risk research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.31

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